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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 USDKES. In fourth wave triangle formation. Expecting a break out of the 102 level consolidation toward and below 100. Only if the pair moves strongly above 103 will the outlook modify. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,354 Location: Nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:As a cartoonist I can see the likelihood of the USD mounting a dizzy rally in the next bullish climb. The USD pegs will not survive this buffalo charge. All the pegs will breakdown causing that bidless blackhole effect I keep on stating. Will markets be shutdown for weeks in order to force investors to get back their heads?! This is a 45 year cartoon of the USD index since 1970. Heading back to challenge 116 and if it breaks down, liquidity will evaporate very fast!  AUD,CAD,ZAR,SAR and other commodity currencies especially will continue having it rough as the oil glut and entry of Iran takes its toll further on oil prices. This should push the USD index to previous highs. I heard KE Treasury secretary is contemplating Eurobond2  . All the best for him. #USDTurbo I don't think its Euro Bond 2 but rather we're back to borrowing local Headline wrote:Kenya: Treasury Set to Borrow More Locally As Foreign Credit Gets Expensive Eurobond borrowing is now a finished play. Going that way will just ensure you burn your economy as USD buffalo stampede blows up your repayment budgets.
Borrowing locally will also fail. Bidless blackhole! Unless govts start paying premium rates on bonds their bonds will go bidless!
The USD buffalo rout will wreak havoc that no govt expects! Politicians are in big trouble when the market will start refusing to give capital to govts. In the short term, we should forget borrowing in the international markets,that is, at least for the next one and a half years. Insisting on external funding at this point will be tantamount to sovereign financial suicide. I think the cs is engaging in tomfoolery trying to diffuse the spike in local tbill/bond rates so that treasury is able to raise more at an affordable rate but the market ain't budging. When push comes to shove tbills/bonds will be the only way out though at handsome premium. Treasury will curse the day they decided to raise the eurobond. That gravy train where African countries were roped in just as the global economy was about to tip over will be a very painful ride in coming times. No-one was roped into borrowing Forex. It's the misuse of the proceeds that's the problem. The cheap(relatively) rates roped in new clients aka African countries who previously had not raised money via eurobonds et al. Emerging markets are getting a beatdown thanks to dollar denominated debt...I do not expect African economies to fair any better whether the funds were prudently utilized or not. We are now much more in sync with the global economy courtesy of the eurobond and its misuse only makes a bad problem worse. It is smart to borrow at cheap(er) rates for investment purposes. It is stupid to use the (any) funds for White Elephants and shady deals. #ThisIsAfrica [Rwanda, Mauritius & Botswana seem to be the exceptions]. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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LARGE DEGREE TRENDS IN SOCIAL MOOD PRECEDE AND CAUSE FINANCIAL EFFECTS, ECONOMIC EFFECTS, AND HEALTH EFFECTS, IN THAT ORDER. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:As a cartoonist I can see the likelihood of the USD mounting a dizzy rally in the next bullish climb. The USD pegs will not survive this buffalo charge. All the pegs will breakdown causing that bidless blackhole effect I keep on stating. Will markets be shutdown for weeks in order to force investors to get back their heads?! This is a 45 year cartoon of the USD index since 1970. Heading back to challenge 116 and if it breaks down, liquidity will evaporate very fast! AUD,CAD,ZAR,SAR and other commodity currencies especially will continue having it rough as the oil glut and entry of Iran takes its toll further on oil prices. This should push the USD index to previous highs. I heard KE Treasury secretary is contemplating Eurobond2 . All the best for him. #USDTurbo I don't think its Euro Bond 2 but rather we're back to borrowing local Headline wrote:Kenya: Treasury Set to Borrow More Locally As Foreign Credit Gets Expensive Eurobond borrowing is now a finished play. Going that way will just ensure you burn your economy as USD buffalo stampede blows up your repayment budgets.
Borrowing locally will also fail. Bidless blackhole! Unless govts start paying premium rates on bonds their bonds will go bidless!
The USD buffalo rout will wreak havoc that no govt expects! Politicians are in big trouble when the market will start refusing to give capital to govts. In the short term, we should forget borrowing in the international markets,that is, at least for the next one and a half years. Insisting on external funding at this point will be tantamount to sovereign financial suicide. I think the cs is engaging in tomfoolery trying to diffuse the spike in local tbill/bond rates so that treasury is able to raise more at an affordable rate but the market ain't budging. When push comes to shove tbills/bonds will be the only way out though at handsome premium. Treasury will curse the day they decided to raise the eurobond. That gravy train where African countries were roped in just as the global economy was about to tip over will be a very painful ride in coming times. No-one was roped into borrowing Forex. It's the misuse of the proceeds that's the problem. The cheap(relatively) rates roped in new clients aka African countries who previously had not raised money via eurobonds et al. Emerging markets are getting a beatdown thanks to dollar denominated debt...I do not expect African economies to fair any better whether the funds were prudently utilized or not. We are now much more in sync with the global economy courtesy of the eurobond and its misuse only makes a bad problem worse. It is smart to borrow at cheap(er) rates for investment purposes. It is stupid to use the (any) funds for White Elephants and shady deals. #ThisIsAfrica [Rwanda, Mauritius & Botswana seem to be the exceptions]. True,at the time of taking on the debt it was cheaper but the assessment of whether to take on such kind of financing should have been done over the tenure of such debt vis a vis global financial market trends. Two years later vs a strong dollar,all the supposed savings vs other funding avenues have turned premium costs(squeezing us badly)with the worst yet to come. A little forward planning on the treasury's part would have averted a painful episode in our economy. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,354 Location: Nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:As a cartoonist I can see the likelihood of the USD mounting a dizzy rally in the next bullish climb. The USD pegs will not survive this buffalo charge. All the pegs will breakdown causing that bidless blackhole effect I keep on stating. Will markets be shutdown for weeks in order to force investors to get back their heads?! This is a 45 year cartoon of the USD index since 1970. Heading back to challenge 116 and if it breaks down, liquidity will evaporate very fast! AUD,CAD,ZAR,SAR and other commodity currencies especially will continue having it rough as the oil glut and entry of Iran takes its toll further on oil prices. This should push the USD index to previous highs. I heard KE Treasury secretary is contemplating Eurobond2 . All the best for him. #USDTurbo I don't think its Euro Bond 2 but rather we're back to borrowing local Headline wrote:Kenya: Treasury Set to Borrow More Locally As Foreign Credit Gets Expensive Eurobond borrowing is now a finished play. Going that way will just ensure you burn your economy as USD buffalo stampede blows up your repayment budgets.
Borrowing locally will also fail. Bidless blackhole! Unless govts start paying premium rates on bonds their bonds will go bidless!
The USD buffalo rout will wreak havoc that no govt expects! Politicians are in big trouble when the market will start refusing to give capital to govts. In the short term, we should forget borrowing in the international markets,that is, at least for the next one and a half years. Insisting on external funding at this point will be tantamount to sovereign financial suicide. I think the cs is engaging in tomfoolery trying to diffuse the spike in local tbill/bond rates so that treasury is able to raise more at an affordable rate but the market ain't budging. When push comes to shove tbills/bonds will be the only way out though at handsome premium. Treasury will curse the day they decided to raise the eurobond. That gravy train where African countries were roped in just as the global economy was about to tip over will be a very painful ride in coming times. No-one was roped into borrowing Forex. It's the misuse of the proceeds that's the problem. The cheap(relatively) rates roped in new clients aka African countries who previously had not raised money via eurobonds et al. Emerging markets are getting a beatdown thanks to dollar denominated debt...I do not expect African economies to fair any better whether the funds were prudently utilized or not. We are now much more in sync with the global economy courtesy of the eurobond and its misuse only makes a bad problem worse. It is smart to borrow at cheap(er) rates for investment purposes. It is stupid to use the (any) funds for White Elephants and shady deals. #ThisIsAfrica [Rwanda, Mauritius & Botswana seem to be the exceptions]. True,at the time of taking on the debt it was cheaper but the assessment of whether to take on such kind of financing should have been done over the tenure of such debt vis a vis global financial market trends. Two years later vs a strong dollar,all the supposed savings vs other funding avenues have turned premium costs(squeezing us badly)with the worst yet to come. A little forward planning on the treasury's part would have averted a painful episode in our economy. You have too much faith in GoK. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 5/20/2010 Posts: 69
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VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:As a cartoonist I can see the likelihood of the USD mounting a dizzy rally in the next bullish climb. The USD pegs will not survive this buffalo charge. All the pegs will breakdown causing that bidless blackhole effect I keep on stating. Will markets be shutdown for weeks in order to force investors to get back their heads?! This is a 45 year cartoon of the USD index since 1970. Heading back to challenge 116 and if it breaks down, liquidity will evaporate very fast! AUD,CAD,ZAR,SAR and other commodity currencies especially will continue having it rough as the oil glut and entry of Iran takes its toll further on oil prices. This should push the USD index to previous highs. I heard KE Treasury secretary is contemplating Eurobond2 . All the best for him. #USDTurbo I don't think its Euro Bond 2 but rather we're back to borrowing local Headline wrote:Kenya: Treasury Set to Borrow More Locally As Foreign Credit Gets Expensive Eurobond borrowing is now a finished play. Going that way will just ensure you burn your economy as USD buffalo stampede blows up your repayment budgets.
Borrowing locally will also fail. Bidless blackhole! Unless govts start paying premium rates on bonds their bonds will go bidless!
The USD buffalo rout will wreak havoc that no govt expects! Politicians are in big trouble when the market will start refusing to give capital to govts. In the short term, we should forget borrowing in the international markets,that is, at least for the next one and a half years. Insisting on external funding at this point will be tantamount to sovereign financial suicide. I think the cs is engaging in tomfoolery trying to diffuse the spike in local tbill/bond rates so that treasury is able to raise more at an affordable rate but the market ain't budging. When push comes to shove tbills/bonds will be the only way out though at handsome premium. Treasury will curse the day they decided to raise the eurobond. That gravy train where African countries were roped in just as the global economy was about to tip over will be a very painful ride in coming times. No-one was roped into borrowing Forex. It's the misuse of the proceeds that's the problem. The cheap(relatively) rates roped in new clients aka African countries who previously had not raised money via eurobonds et al. Emerging markets are getting a beatdown thanks to dollar denominated debt...I do not expect African economies to fair any better whether the funds were prudently utilized or not. We are now much more in sync with the global economy courtesy of the eurobond and its misuse only makes a bad problem worse. It is smart to borrow at cheap(er) rates for investment purposes. It is stupid to use the (any) funds for White Elephants and shady deals. #ThisIsAfrica [Rwanda, Mauritius & Botswana seem to be the exceptions]. True,at the time of taking on the debt it was cheaper but the assessment of whether to take on such kind of financing should have been done over the tenure of such debt vis a vis global financial market trends. Two years later vs a strong dollar,all the supposed savings vs other funding avenues have turned premium costs(squeezing us badly)with the worst yet to come. A little forward planning on the treasury's part would have averted a painful episode in our economy. You have too much faith in GoK. BTW when is Kenya supposed to pay the interest on said Eurobond?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,354 Location: Nairobi
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sl8r wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:As a cartoonist I can see the likelihood of the USD mounting a dizzy rally in the next bullish climb. The USD pegs will not survive this buffalo charge. All the pegs will breakdown causing that bidless blackhole effect I keep on stating. Will markets be shutdown for weeks in order to force investors to get back their heads?! This is a 45 year cartoon of the USD index since 1970. Heading back to challenge 116 and if it breaks down, liquidity will evaporate very fast! AUD,CAD,ZAR,SAR and other commodity currencies especially will continue having it rough as the oil glut and entry of Iran takes its toll further on oil prices. This should push the USD index to previous highs. I heard KE Treasury secretary is contemplating Eurobond2 . All the best for him. #USDTurbo I don't think its Euro Bond 2 but rather we're back to borrowing local Headline wrote:Kenya: Treasury Set to Borrow More Locally As Foreign Credit Gets Expensive Eurobond borrowing is now a finished play. Going that way will just ensure you burn your economy as USD buffalo stampede blows up your repayment budgets.
Borrowing locally will also fail. Bidless blackhole! Unless govts start paying premium rates on bonds their bonds will go bidless!
The USD buffalo rout will wreak havoc that no govt expects! Politicians are in big trouble when the market will start refusing to give capital to govts. In the short term, we should forget borrowing in the international markets,that is, at least for the next one and a half years. Insisting on external funding at this point will be tantamount to sovereign financial suicide. I think the cs is engaging in tomfoolery trying to diffuse the spike in local tbill/bond rates so that treasury is able to raise more at an affordable rate but the market ain't budging. When push comes to shove tbills/bonds will be the only way out though at handsome premium. Treasury will curse the day they decided to raise the eurobond. That gravy train where African countries were roped in just as the global economy was about to tip over will be a very painful ride in coming times. No-one was roped into borrowing Forex. It's the misuse of the proceeds that's the problem. The cheap(relatively) rates roped in new clients aka African countries who previously had not raised money via eurobonds et al. Emerging markets are getting a beatdown thanks to dollar denominated debt...I do not expect African economies to fair any better whether the funds were prudently utilized or not. We are now much more in sync with the global economy courtesy of the eurobond and its misuse only makes a bad problem worse. It is smart to borrow at cheap(er) rates for investment purposes. It is stupid to use the (any) funds for White Elephants and shady deals. #ThisIsAfrica [Rwanda, Mauritius & Botswana seem to be the exceptions]. True,at the time of taking on the debt it was cheaper but the assessment of whether to take on such kind of financing should have been done over the tenure of such debt vis a vis global financial market trends. Two years later vs a strong dollar,all the supposed savings vs other funding avenues have turned premium costs(squeezing us badly)with the worst yet to come. A little forward planning on the treasury's part would have averted a painful episode in our economy. You have too much faith in GoK. BTW when is Kenya supposed to pay the interest on said Eurobond? Payments are already being made http://www.businessdaily...04/-/d13sqv/-/index.htmlGreedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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VituVingiSana wrote:sl8r wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:As a cartoonist I can see the likelihood of the USD mounting a dizzy rally in the next bullish climb. The USD pegs will not survive this buffalo charge. All the pegs will breakdown causing that bidless blackhole effect I keep on stating. Will markets be shutdown for weeks in order to force investors to get back their heads?! This is a 45 year cartoon of the USD index since 1970. Heading back to challenge 116 and if it breaks down, liquidity will evaporate very fast! AUD,CAD,ZAR,SAR and other commodity currencies especially will continue having it rough as the oil glut and entry of Iran takes its toll further on oil prices. This should push the USD index to previous highs. I heard KE Treasury secretary is contemplating Eurobond2 . All the best for him. #USDTurbo I don't think its Euro Bond 2 but rather we're back to borrowing local [quote=Headline]Kenya: Treasury Set to Borrow More Locally As Foreign Credit Gets Expensive Eurobond borrowing is now a finished play. Going that way will just ensure you burn your economy as USD buffalo stampede blows up your repayment budgets.
Borrowing locally will also fail. Bidless blackhole! Unless govts start paying premium rates on bonds their bonds will go bidless!
The USD buffalo rout will wreak havoc that no govt expects! Politicians are in big trouble when the market will start refusing to give capital to govts. In the short term, we should forget borrowing in the international markets,that is, at least for the next one and a half years. Insisting on external funding at this point will be tantamount to sovereign financial suicide. I think the cs is engaging in tomfoolery trying to diffuse the spike in local tbill/bond rates so that treasury is able to raise more at an affordable rate but the market ain't budging. When push comes to shove tbills/bonds will be the only way out though at handsome premium. Treasury will curse the day they decided to raise the eurobond. That gravy train where African countries were roped in just as the global economy was about to tip over will be a very painful ride in coming times. No-one was roped into borrowing Forex. It's the misuse of the proceeds that's the problem. The cheap(relatively) rates roped in new clients aka African countries who previously had not raised money via eurobonds et al. Emerging markets are getting a beatdown thanks to dollar denominated debt...I do not expect African economies to fair any better whether the funds were prudently utilized or not. We are now much more in sync with the global economy courtesy of the eurobond and its misuse only makes a bad problem worse. It is smart to borrow at cheap(er) rates for investment purposes. It is stupid to use the (any) funds for White Elephants and shady deals. #ThisIsAfrica [Rwanda, Mauritius & Botswana seem to be the exceptions]. True,at the time of taking on the debt it was cheaper but the assessment of whether to take on such kind of financing should have been done over the tenure of such debt vis a vis global financial market trends. Two years later vs a strong dollar,all the supposed savings vs other funding avenues have turned premium costs(squeezing us badly)with the worst yet to come. A little forward planning on the treasury's part would have averted a painful episode in our economy. You have too much faith in GoK. BTW when is Kenya supposed to pay the interest on said Eurobond? Payments are already being made http://www.businessdaily...4/-/d13sqv/-/index.html[/quote] This market NSE has become irrational silencing everybody including the notoriously noisy. I will keep off participating on threads. I will be reading only. It is weird not business as usual. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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I-REIT closed below IPO price yesterday and not a hoot here. Those who haven't experienced the bear such are the signs then the hopelessness and eventually the deafening silence as the market does its thing. Then thud we hit the solid bottom and reverse. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:As a cartoonist I can see the likelihood of the USD mounting a dizzy rally in the next bullish climb. The USD pegs will not survive this buffalo charge. All the pegs will breakdown causing that bidless blackhole effect I keep on stating. Will markets be shutdown for weeks in order to force investors to get back their heads?! This is a 45 year cartoon of the USD index since 1970. Heading back to challenge 116 and if it breaks down, liquidity will evaporate very fast! AUD,CAD,ZAR,SAR and other commodity currencies especially will continue having it rough as the oil glut and entry of Iran takes its toll further on oil prices. This should push the USD index to previous highs. I heard KE Treasury secretary is contemplating Eurobond2 . All the best for him. #USDTurbo I don't think its Euro Bond 2 but rather we're back to borrowing local Headline wrote:Kenya: Treasury Set to Borrow More Locally As Foreign Credit Gets Expensive Eurobond borrowing is now a finished play. Going that way will just ensure you burn your economy as USD buffalo stampede blows up your repayment budgets.
Borrowing locally will also fail. Bidless blackhole! Unless govts start paying premium rates on bonds their bonds will go bidless!
The USD buffalo rout will wreak havoc that no govt expects! Politicians are in big trouble when the market will start refusing to give capital to govts. In the short term, we should forget borrowing in the international markets,that is, at least for the next one and a half years. Insisting on external funding at this point will be tantamount to sovereign financial suicide. I think the cs is engaging in tomfoolery trying to diffuse the spike in local tbill/bond rates so that treasury is able to raise more at an affordable rate but the market ain't budging. When push comes to shove tbills/bonds will be the only way out though at handsome premium. Treasury will curse the day they decided to raise the eurobond. That gravy train where African countries were roped in just as the global economy was about to tip over will be a very painful ride in coming times. No-one was roped into borrowing Forex. It's the misuse of the proceeds that's the problem. The cheap(relatively) rates roped in new clients aka African countries who previously had not raised money via eurobonds et al. Emerging markets are getting a beatdown thanks to dollar denominated debt...I do not expect African economies to fair any better whether the funds were prudently utilized or not. We are now much more in sync with the global economy courtesy of the eurobond and its misuse only makes a bad problem worse. It is smart to borrow at cheap(er) rates for investment purposes. It is stupid to use the (any) funds for White Elephants and shady deals. #ThisIsAfrica [Rwanda, Mauritius & Botswana seem to be the exceptions]. True,at the time of taking on the debt it was cheaper but the assessment of whether to take on such kind of financing should have been done over the tenure of such debt vis a vis global financial market trends. Two years later vs a strong dollar,all the supposed savings vs other funding avenues have turned premium costs(squeezing us badly)with the worst yet to come. A little forward planning on the treasury's part would have averted a painful episode in our economy. You have too much faith in GoK. Hardly. I was just pointing out their obligations. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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