Modern refineries are complex and one builds a Refinery Complex that is multi-purpose.
- Handles different types of crude oil
- Produces more White Oils vs Black Oils
- Can vary the production of distillates as needed
- Storage facilities for both crude and refined products
- Other intermediate products are manufactured eg base materials for plastics
- Low sulfur fuel production that meets stringent standards [KPRL couldn't always meet those standards]

That's why a new refinery was being looked at for Lamu on much more land and with offtake for the by-products including steam, heat and gases [LPG]. In addition, it has to be integrated with the port.

The challenge is that these (competitive) mega-refinery complexes need huge investments.

The world's largest refinery, on 7,500 acres, is in India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamnagar_Refinery 1,240,000 bbl/day which is 17x KPRL which at it's peak could process only 70,000 bbl/day.

Essar has a 405,000 bbl/d (64,400 m3/d) refinery.

Kenya also imports a lot from Singapore:

ExxonMobil Jurong Island Refinery (ExxonMobil), 605,000 bbl/d (96,200 m3/d)
SRC Jurong Island Refinery (Singapore Refining Corporation), 290,000 bbl/d (46,000 m3/d)
Shell Pulau Bukom Refinery (Royal Dutch Shell), 500,000 bbl/d (79,000 m3/d)

it is a good time to double your fortunes when guys will be recovering their 50% plus paper losses

We say in customer care never try words that have "NO" in them, use words with YES and do more to exceed. Its true money will be there even where profit warnings have sounded in some we will still hve some harvest ata kama ni mbegu. Think of Kakuzi, Kenya Orchard and ask yourself why mumias is where it is.(Forget about Joho sugar)and talk about stealing and corruption which are one and the same.
During Moi error more and more Indians tycoon were using Statehouse road than what is today. That time statehouse road had so many high profile SUVs considering the industrial strikes that were so many and crushed by police with Shopstewards and union members deaths in unclear state.
We still move on, take advantge of lower prices to get to something in future for those with disposable income. Its like Pension

IMHO, forget Changamwe and build a "MODERN" refinery in Lamu but there are risks.
1) Kenya needs larger discoveries to make a refinery viable. Refineries need to be 'fed' daily so it needs a minimum bpd production. Look at the needs of the large/efficient refineries above.
2) Kenya needs South Sudan oil [in the absence of Uganda] to support the Lamu Refinery.
3) If the refinery is large enough, Kenya can import crude from ME & process it for inland markets.

Pipeline: It is only feasible if Kenya has more than just Turkana i.e. SS has to come on-board. Not easy as (North) Sudan has them by the balls. Uganda's waxy crude needs to be heated to move by pipeline which is why some analysts say UG should use railway or trucks.

Lamu Port: It needs a lot more going for it. The 'vision' was Refinery, Petroleum import/export, Railway [goods to UG, SS, south Ethiopia & Northern KE] and opening of Turkana/Marsabit/Isiolo for business/farming. I am not so sure.

If I was in GoK, I'd look to dualize Nairobi-Mombasa [4 lanes each way], connect South Coast & North Coast [Malindi] to Voi so folks avoid going into Mombasa just to connect through.

I'd dualize Nairobi-Kisumu-Malaba-Busia to support exports to UG.

As for the railway, I would have taken the existing line and improved it at a fraction of the cost. Add an extra rail so both Narrow and Standard gauge train can use it. In some areas, add extensions for SGR.

I prefer multiple PPPs to grand GoK projects. Grand infrastructure projects sound great but incremental projects have better ROIs. Look at power where PPPs are increasing capacity and gradually. Every 3-6 months we see additional power capacity coming online.

Anyway, as a private citizen... I can only watch my taxes being wasted.