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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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GIDEON OOKO
#1441 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 3:42:13 PM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 1/21/2016
Posts: 1
Location: NAIROBI
mnandii wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Financial Values Can Disappear
(Excerpt, Conquer the Crash, ch. 9)

People seem to take for granted that financial values can be created endlessly seemingly out of nowhere and pile up to the moon. Turn the direction around and mention that financial values can disappear into nowhere, and they insist that it is not possible. “The money has to go somewhere…It just moves from stocks to bonds to money funds...It never goes away…For every buyer, there is a seller, so the money just changes hands.”

That is true of the money, just as it was all the way up, but it’s not true of the values, which changed all the way up.

Asset prices rise not because of “buying” per se, because indeed for every buyer, there is a seller. They rise because those transacting agree that their prices should be higher. All that everyone else -- including those who own some of that asset and those who do not -- need do is nothing.

Conversely, for prices of assets to fall, it takes only one seller and one buyer who agree that the former value of an asset was too high. If no other bids are competing with that buyer’s, then the value of the asset falls, and it falls for everyone who owns it. Financial values can disappear through a decrease in prices for any type of investment asset, including bonds, stocks and land.



Read more: http://www.elliottwave.c...Yes..aspx#ixzz3xOFNAnDC
Follow us: @elliottwaveintl on Twitter | ElliottWaveInternational on Facebook

True wise words
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hisah
#1442 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 4:02:11 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming!


@hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king?

Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mlennyma
#1443 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 4:30:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming!


@hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king?

Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list.

i expect the reporting season to cool the slide abit especially on banks before resuming after Q1
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, January 21, 2016 4:35 PM | Reason: Not specified
snipermnoma
#1444 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 5:06:21 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
mnandii wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
mnandii wrote:
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

SHORT TERM UPDATE



Unless 4040 level is broken upward, my outlook remains bearish.

Am looking for a third wave drop i.e wave iii whose targets are as below:


Wave i = ( 4257.27 - 3829.91 ) = 427.36

Typically third waves are 161.8 or 261.8% of first waves. Thus:

Wave iii end = {4040.75 - 1.618 X 427.36} = 3349.28

OR Wave iii end= {4040.75 - 2.618 X 427.36} = 2921.92


@mnandii I'm still an amateur wave counter so I'm wondering how to count green wave 3. My assumptions are as follows:

I assume green wave 3 comprises of five blue/cyan waves (so far we have [i] and [ii]).

I assume blue/cyan [iii] is composed of five red waves (so far we have i and ii).

Green wave 5 will be the end of black wave (C) from long term chart which you calculated as 2415.48, 1698.19 or 1397.15 in post 1377


YES! Basically in a third wave extension each higher wave degree is composed of five lower degree waves viz:



Similar to above but in our case it is a bear market third wave extension (so mentally flip this upside down).


I see. So we need to complete red to v, blue to [v], green to 5 for black to be at C. Looks like the way down will be a loooong one.
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Spikes
#1445 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 5:17:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
snipermnoma wrote:
mnandii wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
mnandii wrote:
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

SHORT TERM UPDATE



Unless 4040 level is broken upward, my outlook remains bearish.

Am looking for a third wave drop i.e wave iii whose targets are as below:


Wave i = ( 4257.27 - 3829.91 ) = 427.36

Typically third waves are 161.8 or 261.8% of first waves. Thus:

Wave iii end = {4040.75 - 1.618 X 427.36} = 3349.28

OR Wave iii end= {4040.75 - 2.618 X 427.36} = 2921.92


@mnandii I'm still an amateur wave counter so I'm wondering how to count green wave 3. My assumptions are as follows:

I assume green wave 3 comprises of five blue/cyan waves (so far we have [i] and [ii]).

I assume blue/cyan [iii] is composed of five red waves (so far we have i and ii).

Green wave 5 will be the end of black wave (C) from long term chart which you calculated as 2415.48, 1698.19 or 1397.15 in post 1377


YES! Basically in a third wave extension each higher wave degree is composed of five lower degree waves viz:



Similar to above but in our case it is a bear market third wave extension (so mentally flip this upside down).


I see. So we need to complete red to v, blue to [v], green to 5 for black to be at C. Looks like the way down will be a loooong one.


The current account deficit narrows down 2015 and will continue shrinking 2016. Liquidity is coming very soon less than a month. Others are cheering a bear without loading. Shilling remains steady according to Opus Dei. Prophets of doom where you?
http://www.nation.co.ke/...0/-/6esu63/-/index.html
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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mnandii
#1446 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 5:52:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
At market tops, the majority are bullish and wrong. At market bottoms, the majority are bearish and wrong. Prechter.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#1447 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 6:50:57 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mlennyma wrote:
hisah wrote:
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming!


@hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king?

Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list.

i expect the reporting season to cool the slide abit especially on banks before resuming after Q1

Again I'll state it that the investor psychology is shredded. In bear markets good news is sold, bad news is sold! In bull markets good news is celebrated, bad new is bought! That's the psychology... Bulls create optimism, bears create pessimism. You need a major news headline to disrupt the prevailing psychology not just profit/loss reports.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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murchr
#1448 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2016 1:29:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming!


@hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king?

Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list.


I was thinking about Bamburi too because of SGR but the trailing PE 17.6 is not pleasing at all, are you able to gauge what the forward PE would be?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#1449 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2016 10:14:30 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming!


@hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king?

Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list.


I was thinking about Bamburi too because of SGR but the trailing PE 17.6 is not pleasing at all, are you able to gauge what the forward PE would be?

My forecast for BAMB is
Turnover 40B vs 36B
EPS - 13 vs 9.80 boosted by forex gains on USD cash holdings thus forward PER = 13.3
Total DPS - 12 (6+6) - Dividend yield at current stock price (173) is 6.9%

I expect this stock stay afloat in the current bearish storm.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#1450 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2016 10:45:54 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
HFCK breaking below 20 handle Pray

All time high volume churned in mid Dec last year at 21 - 22 range. Are we going to see 10 handle tested???
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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