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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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snipermnoma
#1421 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 7:39:16 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
Spikes wrote:
The most frustrating and haunting thing in Securities Exchange is selling your stake today at a throw away price only to wake up the following day by surprise all authoritative newspapers business section is hit by reports of super profits as high as 10 times the previous performance. Imagine your indignation at this scenario after holding your shares for more than a year!


@spikes you continue to be optimistic even as the winter is getting darker. It is not too often that the three approaches: fundamental analysis, technical analysis and elliot wave analysis all conquer on market direction. Right now all point to a bear market. Could you expound on your bullish outlook?
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muandiwambeu
#1422 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 7:51:06 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
Spikes wrote:
The most frustrating and haunting thing in Securities Exchange is selling your stake today at a throw away price only to wake up the following day by surprise all authoritative newspapers business section is hit by reports of super profits as high as 10 times the previous performance. Imagine your indignation at this scenario after holding your shares for more than a year!


Just switch dem.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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hisah
#1423 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 8:01:38 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
snipermnoma wrote:
Today a new multi-year low was set at 3,796.49 for the NSE 20. Not since mid 2012 have we had the index this low...that sinking feeling is beginning to set in. EABL and KCB are now sliding. Equity is caving in and yet safaricom has not fully joined the fray. What will happen once safaricom goes through a slump? Things are unfolding fast.

As long as NSE20 closed 2015 without a solid foothold on the critical 4000 handle it only meant the bear will get muscular. Then add USD capital flight that means emerging markets have no legs as funds get pulled out. Then add gok mismanagement to spice things up plus elections. One heck of a lethal cocktail to knockout even a dead-cold drunkard!

We're just getting started. Bears travel very swiftly unlike bulls.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, January 20, 2016 8:02 PM | Reason: Not specified
Spikes
#1424 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 8:14:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
hisah wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Today a new multi-year low was set at 3,796.49 for the NSE 20. Not since mid 2012 have we had the index this low...that sinking feeling is beginning to set in. EABL and KCB are now sliding. Equity is caving in and yet safaricom has not fully joined the fray. What will happen once safaricom goes through a slump? Things are unfolding fast.

As long as NSE20 closed 2015 without a solid foothold on the critical 4000 handle it only meant the bear will get muscular. Then add USD capital flight that means emerging markets have no legs as funds get pulled out. Then add gok mismanagement to spice things up plus elections. One heck of a lethal cocktail to knockout even a dead-cold drunkard!

We're just getting started. Bears travel very swiftly unlike bulls.



Bears travel swiftly because of panic sale!
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Aguytrying
#1425 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 10:12:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Today a new multi-year low was set at 3,796.49 for the NSE 20. Not since mid 2012 have we had the index this low...that sinking feeling is beginning to set in. EABL and KCB are now sliding. Equity is caving in and yet safaricom has not fully joined the fray. What will happen once safaricom goes through a slump? Things are unfolding fast.

As long as NSE20 closed 2015 without a solid foothold on the critical 4000 handle it only meant the bear will get muscular. Then add USD capital flight that means emerging markets have no legs as funds get pulled out. Then add gok mismanagement to spice things up plus elections. One heck of a lethal cocktail to knockout even a dead-cold drunkard!

We're just getting started. Bears travel very swiftly unlike bulls.



You had warned us that last year was just the beginning and the way this year has started, you were right.
On the last day of trading I noted they tried to make the index gain many points and it crossed that psychological 4000 point mark. Clearly that was in vain.
This bear run I'm looking to benefit from the low prices and hold to eye opening gains in the next few years. It's like the 2011 bus came back to pick more passengers because that bull run was short.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Spikes
#1426 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 11:29:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Today a new multi-year low was set at 3,796.49 for the NSE 20. Not since mid 2012 have we had the index this low...that sinking feeling is beginning to set in. EABL and KCB are now sliding. Equity is caving in and yet safaricom has not fully joined the fray. What will happen once safaricom goes through a slump? Things are unfolding fast.

As long as NSE20 closed 2015 without a solid foothold on the critical 4000 handle it only meant the bear will get muscular. Then add USD capital flight that means emerging markets have no legs as funds get pulled out. Then add gok mismanagement to spice things up plus elections. One heck of a lethal cocktail to knockout even a dead-cold drunkard!

We're just getting started. Bears travel very swiftly unlike bulls.



You had warned us that last year was just the beginning and the way this year has started, you were right.
On the last day of trading I noted they tried to make the index gain many points and it crossed that psychological 4000 point mark. Clearly that was in vain.
This bear run I'm looking to benefit from the low prices and hold to eye opening gains in the next few years. It's like the 2011 bus came back to pick more passengers because that bull run was short.


What do you mean that they tried to make the index gain more points last day of 2015 trading? You mean something to do with NSE20 numbers manipulation? Tell us please coz you are sending jitters across investors. We have trust at NSE.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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winmak
#1427 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 7:58:30 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 539
Location: Nakuru
Spikes wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Today a new multi-year low was set at 3,796.49 for the NSE 20. Not since mid 2012 have we had the index this low...that sinking feeling is beginning to set in. EABL and KCB are now sliding. Equity is caving in and yet safaricom has not fully joined the fray. What will happen once safaricom goes through a slump? Things are unfolding fast.

As long as NSE20 closed 2015 without a solid foothold on the critical 4000 handle it only meant the bear will get muscular. Then add USD capital flight that means emerging markets have no legs as funds get pulled out. Then add gok mismanagement to spice things up plus elections. One heck of a lethal cocktail to knockout even a dead-cold drunkard!

We're just getting started. Bears travel very swiftly unlike bulls.



You had warned us that last year was just the beginning and the way this year has started, you were right.
On the last day of trading I noted they tried to make the index gain many points and it crossed that psychological 4000 point mark. Clearly that was in vain.
This bear run I'm looking to benefit from the low prices and hold to eye opening gains in the next few years. It's like the 2011 bus came back to pick more passengers because that bull run was short.


What do you mean that they tried to make the index gain more points last day of 2015 trading? You mean something to do with NSE20 numbers manipulation? Tell us please coz you are sending jitters across investors. We have trust at NSE.



Trust at NSE @spikes? PPT in play...
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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mnandii
#1428 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 8:05:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#1429 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 8:16:48 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
snipermnoma wrote:
mnandii wrote:
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

SHORT TERM UPDATE



Unless 4040 level is broken upward, my outlook remains bearish.

Am looking for a third wave drop i.e wave iii whose targets are as below:


Wave i = ( 4257.27 - 3829.91 ) = 427.36

Typically third waves are 161.8 or 261.8% of first waves. Thus:

Wave iii end = {4040.75 - 1.618 X 427.36} = 3349.28

OR Wave iii end= {4040.75 - 2.618 X 427.36} = 2921.92


@mnandii I'm still an amateur wave counter so I'm wondering how to count green wave 3. My assumptions are as follows:

I assume green wave 3 comprises of five blue/cyan waves (so far we have [i] and [ii]).

I assume blue/cyan [iii] is composed of five red waves (so far we have i and ii).

Green wave 5 will be the end of black wave (C) from long term chart which you calculated as 2415.48, 1698.19 or 1397.15 in post 1377


YES! Basically in a third wave extension each higher wave degree is composed of five lower degree waves viz:



Similar to above but in our case it is a bear market third wave extension (so mentally flip this upside down).
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#1430 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 8:19:52 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
@spikes, the market will rebound but as long as 4000 critical support has broken down that rebound will not be sustainable because the investor psychology has been shredded. This is what makes sellers stall the bulls as they pile up to cash out of losses as the rebound gives them lesser squeeze. Plenty of investors are trapped in bad positions and the rebound will likely tempted them to sell on the bounce.

We will get a proper bottom when it feels like it's bottomless. 2015 selloff didn't trigger that kind of sentiment. If you were in the market back in 2008 (GFC) and 2011 (KES crash/inflation spike) you'd understand that sinking feeling (capitulation). At that point a lot of guys give up on stocks (no sellers). That's when the major bottom kicks in.


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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