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Is Ethiopia faking economic growth stats?
masukuma
#21 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2016 8:41:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/4/2006
Posts: 13,821
Location: Nairobi
Ah! The man with all the answers the one and only Professor Alba lecturing us again. What would we do without him!
All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
Alba
#22 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2016 9:05:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/27/2012
Posts: 2,256
Location: Bandalungwa
quicksand wrote:
Alba wrote:

I am not sure you can fool any large scale investors. If you are a big corporation, your board of directors demand due diligence.

Typically investors are looking for certain things such as existing infrastructure, cheap electricity, security, low crime rate, an existing customer base, educated workforce, transparency, accountability etc. These aspects are difficult to fake.

Lets fix our issues instead of pointing jealous fingers at Ethiopia. Start by voting on issues like security, good governance and corruption instead of tribal based voting.


It has been done before. Goldman Sachs allegedly finagled Greece's economic numbers prior to its joining the Euro. That doctored outlook may have played a role with some creditors when they decided to buy Greece's junk debt.
There could be a case of disparity between what is on paper and the reality on ground. I remember reading an analysis on the interwebs that said that to gauge the warmth of a countries economy, take a drive in its prominent urban areas. This was in reference to India and China where there is a lot of new infrastructure (buildings etc etc), and while the towers look impressive on a fly-by, the are dark and un-inhabited at night,...telling a different story of tenants not being able to take them up...ergo slower growth than appears on paper. Narrow point, but still goes to show ..


You are way off topic. The person who opened this thread is talking about foreign direct investment. FDI means getting a controlling ownership in a business enterprise in one country by an entity based in another country.

The definition of FDI does not include buying junk bonds.

Junk bonds are covered under portfolio foreign investment, which is a passive investment in the securities of another country such as public stocks and bonds

Yes it is easy to fake your balance sheet that trick investors into buying bonds, stocks and other investments that can be easily disposed of.

But if you want an investor to come and create real jobs in your country by investing in factories, services or even real estate, its much harder to fool them.

How will you fool them into thinking your country has good transport infrastucture when they can clearly see a city choking in traffic?

How will you cheat them that security is good and the crime rate is low?

Alba
#23 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2016 9:07:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/27/2012
Posts: 2,256
Location: Bandalungwa
masukuma wrote:
Ah! The man with all the answers the one and only Professor Alba lecturing us again. What would we do without him!


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Glad to see masukuma with his twisted, warped logic gracing this thread.

Go on tell us again how an immoral and corrupt action is OK so long as it is legal.
quicksand
#24 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2016 10:21:33 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/5/2010
Posts: 2,061
Location: Nairobi
Alba wrote:
quicksand wrote:
Alba wrote:

I am not sure you can fool any large scale investors. If you are a big corporation, your board of directors demand due diligence.

Typically investors are looking for certain things such as existing infrastructure, cheap electricity, security, low crime rate, an existing customer base, educated workforce, transparency, accountability etc. These aspects are difficult to fake.

Lets fix our issues instead of pointing jealous fingers at Ethiopia. Start by voting on issues like security, good governance and corruption instead of tribal based voting.


It has been done before. Goldman Sachs allegedly finagled Greece's economic numbers prior to its joining the Euro. That doctored outlook may have played a role with some creditors when they decided to buy Greece's junk debt.
There could be a case of disparity between what is on paper and the reality on ground. I remember reading an analysis on the interwebs that said that to gauge the warmth of a countries economy, take a drive in its prominent urban areas. This was in reference to India and China where there is a lot of new infrastructure (buildings etc etc), and while the towers look impressive on a fly-by, the are dark and un-inhabited at night,...telling a different story of tenants not being able to take them up...ergo slower growth than appears on paper. Narrow point, but still goes to show ..


You are way off topic. The person who opened this thread is talking about foreign direct investment. FDI means getting a controlling ownership in a business enterprise in one country by an entity based in another country.

The definition of FDI does not include buying junk bonds.

Junk bonds are covered under portfolio foreign investment, which is a passive investment in the securities of another country such as public stocks and bonds

Yes it is easy to fake your balance sheet that trick investors into buying bonds, stocks and other investments that can be easily disposed of.

But if you want an investor to come and create real jobs in your country by investing in factories, services or even real estate, its much harder to fool them.

How will you fool them into thinking your country has good transport infrastucture when they can clearly see a city choking in traffic?

How will you cheat them that security is good and the crime rate is low?


And you have decided to be narrow. The thread title is Is Ethiopia faking economic growth stats? ...and my point is its possible, with bad results. So it doesn't exactly fit the intended narrative of FDI, so what? I hope I got the message across.
To be pedantic, like you i) the original poster didn't offer an opinion or additional commentary, just a copy-paste of the article and a link [ -so you can't possibly infer what they intended] and
ii) I replied to your comment in which no mention of FDI is made.
kaka2za
#25 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2016 10:23:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/3/2008
Posts: 4,057
Location: Gwitu
Alba wrote:
kaka2za wrote:
I truly believe the economic growth is real. What worries me is imprisonment and butchering of university students and marginalization of the Oromo.


I think almost all Ethiopian track athletes are Oromian. They should not mistreat these people lest the runners defect en masse to Qatar and Bahrain.




Your argument is shallow and you know it. So because Rudisha is a Maasai they cannot be marginalised. The Saudi football team is mostly black so tell me they are treated well by Arabs
Blacks have dominated sports in USA yet they could not vote as late as 1969.
By the way, talking of en masse can you name five athletes besides the Dibaba family,Bekele and Gabreselasie ?
Truth forever on the scaffold
Wrong forever on the throne
(James Russell Rowell)
Lolest!
#26 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 12:32:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
quicksand wrote:
[
And you have decided to be narrow. The thread title is Is Ethiopia faking economic growth stats? ...and my point is its possible, with bad results. So it doesn't exactly fit the intended narrative of FDI, so what? I hope I got the message across.
To be pedantic, like you i) the original poster didn't offer an opinion or additional commentary, just a copy-paste of the article and a link [ -so you can't possibly infer what they intended] and
ii) I replied to your comment in which no mention of FDI is made.

Thanks @quicksand.
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
Alba
#27 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 12:59:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/27/2012
Posts: 2,256
Location: Bandalungwa
kaka2za wrote:
Alba wrote:
kaka2za wrote:
I truly believe the economic growth is real. What worries me is imprisonment and butchering of university students and marginalization of the Oromo.


I think almost all Ethiopian track athletes are Oromian. They should not mistreat these people lest the runners defect en masse to Qatar and Bahrain.




Your argument is shallow and you know it. So because Rudisha is a Maasai they cannot be marginalised. The Saudi football team is mostly black so tell me they are treated well by Arabs
Blacks have dominated sports in USA yet they could not vote as late as 1969.
By the way, talking of en masse can you name five athletes besides the Dibaba family,Bekele and Gabreselasie ?


Maybe you are illiterate or struggle with reading comprehension.

I said they should not
I never said they cannot

Of course anyone can be marginalized.

Soma na ufahamu
Alba
#28 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 1:29:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/27/2012
Posts: 2,256
Location: Bandalungwa
quicksand wrote:
[
And you have decided to be narrow. The thread title is Is Ethiopia faking economic growth stats? ...and my point is its possible, with bad results. So it doesn't exactly fit the intended narrative of FDI, so what? I hope I got the message across.
To be pedantic, like you i) the original poster didn't offer an opinion or additional commentary, just a copy-paste of the article and a link [ -so you can't possibly infer what they intended] and
ii) I replied to your comment in which no mention of FDI is made.



I haven't decided anything. Unlike you, I actually read the article that was posted.

When a thread is started, most readers generally read the initial post before commenting. You seem to read only the header which is rather shallow. Its like reading only newspaper headlines instead reading the actual text.

The author of the article under discussion is claiming that Ethiopia is faking stats to attract FDI, not portfolio investments.

The very first sentence in the pasted article ias as follows:

Using fabricated economic data to seek legitimacy and attract foreign direct investments, the regime then advanced narratives about its double-digit economic growth, ............

There is literally nothing in that article that is of any relevance to selling bonds. I mean the article mentions GDP growth and the agricultural sector. ..........
quicksand
#29 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 2:46:22 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/5/2010
Posts: 2,061
Location: Nairobi
Alba wrote:
quicksand wrote:
[
And you have decided to be narrow. The thread title is Is Ethiopia faking economic growth stats? ...and my point is its possible, with bad results. So it doesn't exactly fit the intended narrative of FDI, so what? I hope I got the message across.
To be pedantic, like you i) the original poster didn't offer an opinion or additional commentary, just a copy-paste of the article and a link [ -so you can't possibly infer what they intended] and
ii) I replied to your comment in which no mention of FDI is made.



I haven't decided anything. Unlike you, I actually read the article that was posted.

When a thread is started, most readers generally read the initial post before commenting. You seem to read only the header which is rather shallow. Its like reading only newspaper headlines instead reading the actual text.

The author of the article under discussion is claiming that Ethiopia is faking stats to attract FDI, not portfolio investments.

The very first sentence in the pasted article ias as follows:

Using fabricated economic data to seek legitimacy and attract foreign direct investments, the regime then advanced narratives about its double-digit economic growth, ............

There is literally nothing in that article that is of any relevance to selling bonds. I mean the article mentions GDP growth and the agricultural sector. ..........

Fine, you win professor. Hats off and three claps.
No more bonds talk. Promise.
masukuma
#30 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 7:16:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/4/2006
Posts: 13,821
Location: Nairobi
Alba wrote:
masukuma wrote:
Ah! The man with all the answers the one and only Professor Alba lecturing us again. What would we do without him!


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Glad to see masukuma with his twisted, warped logic gracing this thread.

Go on tell us again how an immoral and corrupt action is OK so long as it is legal.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
I always wonder what your metric is to define acts noted in blue if not what is defined in the law? ama we dream up these things or they come to us in revelation or we get lectured on what is wrong or right by le professeur alba?
anyway I digress... continue lecturing us on what we need to do to move to the next level.
All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
Othelo
#31 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 9:49:53 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
Can one be right, always.......... asking for afriend?
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
Lolest!
#32 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 10:11:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
Othelo wrote:
Can one be right, always.......... asking for afriend?

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
washiku
#33 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 10:22:40 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/9/2007
Posts: 13,095
Lolest! wrote:
Othelo wrote:
Can one be right, always.......... asking for afriend?

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Is your friend Kenyan, Ethiopian or Albanian?
Lolest!
#34 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 10:59:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
Quote:
Yet some African countries are bucking the trend. Ethiopia’s manufacturing has grown by an average of over 10% a year in 2006-14, albeit from a very low base, partly because it has courted foreign investors. “We approached Holland’s horticultural firms, China’s textile and leather firms and Turkey’s garment firms. Now we’re bringing in German and Swiss pharmaceuticals,” says Arkebe Oqubay, a minister who promotes Ethiopia’s industrialisation.

Ha-Joon Chang, a co-author of UNECA’s report, argues that Ethiopia’s relative success has come from its focused policy. Poor countries often find it hard to decide whether to spread their new infrastructure widely or to focus on the most promising areas. Rather than electrify the whole country, Ethiopia has concentrated on providing power and transport links to its industrial parks. It also seems wise to bring in firms with links to industries that already exist there. “Domestic firms learn from being in the same value chain as the foreign firm,” says Mr Page. Firms buying from local suppliers tend to raise local quality by sending managers and technicians to them. This helps them to produce more sophisticated goods.

http://www.economist.com...-east-asia-more-marathon
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
Alba
#35 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 5:04:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/27/2012
Posts: 2,256
Location: Bandalungwa
masukuma wrote:
Alba wrote:
masukuma wrote:
Ah! The man with all the answers the one and only Professor Alba lecturing us again. What would we do without him!


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Glad to see masukuma with his twisted, warped logic gracing this thread.

Go on tell us again how an immoral and corrupt action is OK so long as it is legal.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
I always wonder what your metric is to define acts noted in blue if not what is defined in the law? ama we dream up these things or they come to us in revelation or we get lectured on what is wrong or right by le professeur alba?
anyway I digress... continue lecturing us on what we need to do to move to the next level.


Start using google. The internet is your friend. It will help alleviate your ignorance.

A basic google search will give you the definition of immoral: not conforming to accepted standards of morality, wrongful, bad, unethical.

As such :
1. Waiguru buying bic pens for Ksh 8000 may be legal but it is wrong and unethical.
2. A political bigwig grabbing primary school land may be legal but it is wrong and unethical.
3. Cutting a back door deal to get paid Ksh 35 million of tax payer money is immoral and corrupt

They do not conform to accepted standards therefore they are unethical. The accepted standard is to pay a person what they are capable of earning in the open market.

They are corrupt because they did not follow standard procedures. There was no oversight. Sarah Serem said in May that she is not aware of the Ksh 35m. This means the treasury bypassed the oversight committee. Heck even Nyachae said he was unaware. And he also said that such deals are hidden from the public. Bypassing the oversight committee and hiding from the taxpaying public is classic corruption.

The fact that I have to explain why this is immoral and corrupt is quite frankly shocking.
kaka2za
#36 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 5:24:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/3/2008
Posts: 4,057
Location: Gwitu
Alba wrote:
masukuma wrote:
Alba wrote:
masukuma wrote:
Ah! The man with all the answers the one and only Professor Alba lecturing us again. What would we do without him!


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Glad to see masukuma with his twisted, warped logic gracing this thread.

Go on tell us again how an immoral and corrupt action is OK so long as it is legal.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
I always wonder what your metric is to define acts noted in blue if not what is defined in the law? ama we dream up these things or they come to us in revelation or we get lectured on what is wrong or right by le professeur alba?
anyway I digress... continue lecturing us on what we need to do to move to the next level.


Start using google. The internet is your friend. It will help alleviate your ignorance.

A basic google search will give you the definition of immoral: not conforming to accepted standards of morality, wrongful, bad, unethical.

As such :
1. Waiguru buying bic pens for Ksh 8000 may be legal but it is wrong and unethical.
2. A political bigwig grabbing primary school land may be legal but it is wrong and unethical.
3. Cutting a back door deal to get paid Ksh 35 million of tax payer money is immoral and corrupt

They do not conform to accepted standards therefore they are unethical. The accepted standard is to pay a person what they are capable of earning in the open market.

They are corrupt because they did not follow standard procedures. There was no oversight. Sarah Serem said in May that she is not aware of the Ksh 35m. This means the treasury bypassed the oversight committee. Heck even Nyachae said he was unaware. And he also said that such deals are hidden from the public. Bypassing the oversight committee and hiding from the taxpaying public is classic corruption.

The fact that I have to explain why this is immoral and corrupt is quite frankly shocking.


Hebu rudia tena tafadhali.Sijaelewa Proffessa.
Truth forever on the scaffold
Wrong forever on the throne
(James Russell Rowell)
murchr
#37 Posted : Wednesday, March 01, 2017 4:39:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Lolest!
#38 Posted : Wednesday, March 01, 2017 7:15:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
washiku wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
Othelo wrote:
Can one be right, always.......... asking for afriend?

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Is your friend Kenyan, Ethiopian or Albanian?

Albanian Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
murchr
#39 Posted : Monday, February 03, 2020 3:55:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980


The year 2011 ET created 1.18 Million jobs. FYI they are in the year 2012 Since Sept 2019
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
tycho
#40 Posted : Monday, February 03, 2020 9:07:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:


The year 2011 ET created 1.18 Million jobs. FYI they are in the year 2012 Since Sept 2019


There might be nothing significantly important when a comparison is done with Kenya. Kenya might even be performing better with the 840K jobs said to be created in 2018.
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