Even though we wait for KK's FY 2015 Results, we are in a new year and let's 'forecast' what 2016 could bring for KK.
1) Low(er) oil prices = higher GPM ... Brent is at $37-ish for Feb delivery
2) Lower debt = lower financing costs = more profits [based on $37 oil]
3) More stations = more volumes
4) More products = increased sales [Castrol Lubes, etc]
5) Expanded footprint but some stations are being sold. I saw one in Mombasa up for sale. I am very disappointed that KK is selling some prime locations.
6) Burundi - Ouch! Ouch! Ouch! KK has invested a lot in Burundi but the violence will hurt sales, assets & profits. KK has been buying station in Burundi and these assets may be destroyed/damaged as well.
7) Useless African Currencies = Losses. Zambia Kwacha, Uganda Shs, TZ Shs, etc. These useless, crappy currencies are hurting the value of KK's assets & profits. KK borrowed in USD to fund these purchases but the value of the assets are in local crap. Very sad.
8) TZ - Despite Magufuli, the losses will mount as the lethargic Tanzanians do nothing fast. Plus the profits accruing to TZ as a depot for BU will reduce as the shit hits the fan in BU.
Bottomline [entitled to revisions]: KK will do very well profit-wise but it should take a write-down in assets in all the subsidiaries. There will be some asset revaluations especially in Kenya from the sale of some properties.
The dividend will be muted since Ohana wants to pay down debt & build a 1.5bn building at the corner of Haile Selassie and Uhuru Highway.
BUY as of 4 Jan 2016.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett