Using fabricated economic data to seek legitimacy and attract foreign direct investments, the regime then advanced narratives about its double-digit economic growth, described with such catchphrases as Ethiopia rising, the fastest growing economy in the world and African lioness. The claims that EPRDF has delivered economic growth at miraculous scales has always been reported with a reminder that it takes several decades to build democratic governance. The underlining assumption was that, as long as they deliver economic growth, Ethiopia’s leaders could be excused on the lack of democracy and human rights abuses associated with the need for government intervention in the economy.

EPRDF spent millions to retain the services of expensive and well-connected Western lobbying firms to promote this narrative and create a positive image of the country. These investments were also accompanied with a tight grip on the local media, including depriving foreign reporters’ access if they cross the government line. Ethiopia’s communication apparatus was so successful that even serious reporters and analysts started to accept and promote EPRDF’s narrative on rapid economic growth.

However, a few recent events have tested the truthfulness of Ethiopia’s economic rise. Drought and the resulting famine remain the Achilles heels of the EPRDF government. The government can manipulate data on any other sector, including the aggregate Gross Domestic Product, and get away with it, but agriculture is a tricky sector whose output is not so easy to lie about. The proof lies in the availability of food in the market, providing the absolute minimum subsistence for the rural and urban population.

The sudden translation of drought into famine raises serious questions. For example, it is proving difficult to reconcile the country’s double-digit economic growth with the fact that about 15 million Ethiopians are currently in need of emergency food aid.

Rampant famine

Except for some gullible foreign reporters or parachute consultants, who visit Addis Ababa and depart within days, serious analysts and students of Ethiopian economy know that authorities have often fabricated economic statistics in order to generate fake GDP growth. To the trained eye, it does not take a lot to find inconsistencies in the data series. In fact, Ethiopia’s economic growth calculus is so reminiscent of Enron accounting. (See my recent pieces questioning EPRDF’s economic policies, including anomalies in the alleged achievements of millennium development goals, crony businesses, devaluation, external trade and finance.)

If you have not been in Ethiopia in the last 2 years (2014 & 2015) would you plz shurrup..as for the article, do you know its intention?

Behaving exactly just like the regime. Extremely intolerant of dissenting opinion.

I am not sure you can fool any large scale investors. If you are a big corporation, your board of directors demand due diligence.

Typically investors are looking for certain things such as existing infrastructure, cheap electricity, security, low crime rate, an existing customer base, educated workforce, transparency, accountability etc. These aspects are difficult to fake.

Lets fix our issues instead of pointing jealous fingers at Ethiopia. Start by voting on issues like security, good governance and corruption instead of tribal based voting.

i dont think their growth stats are fake. but ethiopia is coming from an extremely low base so will take a while before the entire country starts feeling the effects. what i think is obviously fake is their revised poverty stats. there is no way in hell ethiopia's poverty rate can be in the 20s percent.

OK. Like the article was written by a Kenyan.

I truly believe the economic growth is real. What worries me is imprisonment and butchering of university students and marginalization of the Oromo.

I truly believe the economic growth is real. What worries me is imprisonment and butchering of university students and marginalization of the Oromo.