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Exchange Bar: Results forecast
Rank: Member Joined: 11/1/2013 Posts: 257
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Kenya is over-banked with are relatively high ratio of banks to total population, with 42 commercial banks serving of 44 million people ,compared to Nigeria's 22 for 180 million and South Africa's 19 for 55 million. Between banks and insurance companies, we currently prefer investing in banks rather than insurance companies based on price to book valuation #CytonnReport Kenya Listed Commercial Banks Analysis,Cytonn Q3’2015 Banking Sector Report. see full report here https://www.cytonn.com/d...5_banking_report%20.pdf
 Equity Bank maintained its top position ranking based on its robust franchise value backed by high return on average equity of 29.2%, high net interest margin of 10.2% and a high non interest income contribution to revenue of 39.6%. With the acquisition of Pro Credit bank (Congo) and the rollout of Equitel expected to boost growth in the near term, the stock has an upside of 23.2%(including dividend yield) Housing Finance ranked the lowest overall. It registered poor profitability ,with ROACE at 12.6% and their NIM at 7.2%, which was the third lowest in the market. In addition, they are hampered by liquidity issues, with a loan to deposit ratio of 137.6%.The stock has a 7.9% downside #CytonnReport No diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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Magnate wrote:Kenya is over-banked with are relatively high ratio of banks to total population, with 42 commercial banks serving of 44 million people ,compared to Nigeria's 22 for 180 million and South Africa's 19 for 55 million. Between banks and insurance companies, we currently prefer investing in banks rather than insurance companies based on price to book valuation #CytonnReport Kenya Listed Commercial Banks Analysis,Cytonn Q3’2015 Banking Sector Report. see full report here https://www.cytonn.com/d...5_banking_report%20.pdf
Equity Bank maintained its top position ranking based on its robust franchise value backed by high return on average equity of 29.2%, high net interest margin of 10.2% and a high non interest income contribution to revenue of 39.6%. With the acquisition of Pro Credit bank (Congo) and the rollout of Equitel expected to boost growth in the near term, the stock has an upside of 23.2%(including dividend yield) Housing Finance ranked the lowest overall. It registered poor profitability ,with ROACE at 12.6% and their NIM at 7.2%, which was the third lowest in the market. In addition, they are hampered by liquidity issues, with a loan to deposit ratio of 137.6%.The stock has a 7.9% downside #CytonnReport Dividing the population by the number of banks so as to decide whether a country is "over banked" is a very deceptive metric.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/1/2013 Posts: 257
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 No diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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^^^^NBK are they serious  Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,506 Location: nairobi
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Which human being would possible want to buy BBK at KES 15.3
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/1/2013 Posts: 257
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Othelo wrote:^^^^NBK are they serious #CytonnReport National Bank of Kenya, was the second most inefficient bank interms of cost containment, operating at cost to income ratios of 56.9%.Inaddition, they have the lowest quality of assets in their loan portfolio, as can be seen by their NPLs which are 8.8% of their total loan book No diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/1/2013 Posts: 257
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Q3 PBT in KES 'B
KCB 19.8 Actual 19.4
EQTY 18.4 Actual 18.1
COOP 13.5 Actual 12.2
BBK 9.8 Actual 9.1
SCBK 8.2
DTB 7.2 Actual 6.9
NIC 4.5
CFC 4.4
NBK 3.2
HFCK 1.1 Actual 1.1
Despite the little hiccup with BBK [outside the 5% level] @Obiero is good at this! Agreed ,Respect to you sir!  No diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,506 Location: nairobi
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Magnate wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Q3 PBT in KES 'B
KCB 19.8 Actual 19.4
EQTY 18.4 Actual 18.1
COOP 13.5 Actual 12.2
BBK 9.8 Actual 9.1
SCBK 8.2
DTB 7.2 Actual 6.9
NIC 4.5
CFC 4.4
NBK 3.2
HFCK 1.1 Actual 1.1
Despite the little hiccup with BBK [outside the 5% level] @Obiero is good at this! Agreed ,Respect to you sir! Asanteni, but @spikes believes he is better.. :)
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,506 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:grahamsdisciple wrote:I'm surprised that guys are reacting like this to Stanchart. Can someone correct me if I'm wrong, but these guys are actually reporting their provisions. Mind you if you look at their provisions this year, they are actually provisioning accounts on watchlist from last year financials, this year they aren't giving any loans. They are taking the pain this year for growth next year and beyond, like pruning leaves. In my view this is the time to buy.
Also with their long record of consistency and discipline, I'm more confident about what is in their books than say Equity, KCB, NBK or even Coop.
Again, can someone please correct me if they think my reasoning/logic is wrong. U are partially right, but the problem here is more in loss of deposits in this tight liquidity race Don't see the big deal also. Hit is on the loan loss provision and an exceptional item (property sale) last year. still likely to hit EPS of 25 and retain DPS 21.50. Cheap below 250. Its unlikely to retain the dividend payout considering the once off sale of property last year. Tomorrow we may see a low of 218.. A definite buy sub 200 SCBK at KES 205 today, I guess KES 5 difference from buy price target isnt anything to write home about.. Could be bought now, but several better options exist
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,506 Location: nairobi
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8 days to go.. Financials expected to close strong. Will give the results here in normal manner, to assist in your decision making
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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@Obiero Not expecting much positive from the results.The economy is struggling and 2016 is projected to be much difficult than 2015. Whenever we have people from arap hyena backyard in control of government the economy bleeds massively. So not much appreciation will be seen in the share prices. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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obiero wrote:Magnate wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Q3 PBT in KES 'B
KCB 19.8 Actual 19.4
EQTY 18.4 Actual 18.1
COOP 13.5 Actual 12.2
BBK 9.8 Actual 9.1
SCBK 8.2
DTB 7.2 Actual 6.9
NIC 4.5
CFC 4.4
NBK 3.2
HFCK 1.1 Actual 1.1
Despite the little hiccup with BBK [outside the 5% level] @Obiero is good at this! Agreed ,Respect to you sir! Asanteni, but @spikes believes he is better.. :) He he, the only thing @Spikes whines alot about is his kq shares coming down to 2 shillings. Though he is an interesting individual 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,506 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:@Obiero
Not expecting much positive from the results.The economy is struggling and 2016 is projected to be much difficult than 2015.
Whenever we have people from arap hyena backyard in control of government the economy bleeds massively.
So not much appreciation will be seen in the share prices.
Indeed he is interesting. Wonder whether he owns any KQ shares. Really reminds me of @qw :)
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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UAP and Britam issue profit warnings. When these people from Arap Hyena are in control of government/power economy tumbles. 2016 it will be worse. @Obiero maneno iko tough Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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From the caption by business daily on biggest corporate deals in 2015 some critical info to investors that was unknown is captured here http://www.businessdaily...8/-/gp4e93z/-/index.htmlWealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/24/2010 Posts: 236 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:UAP and Britam issue profit warnings.
When these people from Arap Hyena are in control of government/power economy tumbles.
2016 it will be worse.
@Obiero maneno iko tough Kamwana has been insignificant to the people of nyumba who are passionate about business. TZ KAZI TU KE KUKULA TU
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,506 Location: nairobi
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innovator wrote:Ericsson wrote:UAP and Britam issue profit warnings.
When these people from Arap Hyena are in control of government/power economy tumbles.
2016 it will be worse.
@Obiero maneno iko tough Kamwana has been insignificant to the people of nyumba who are passionate about business. TZ KAZI TU KE KUKULA TU 2 days to go
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Both will make a loss in FY2015 Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,506 Location: nairobi
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those interested in getting a few rounds shall be pleased to note that I will be at the exchange bar tonight with titans of industry, tomorrow we spill the beans as per normal procedure
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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obiero wrote:those interested in getting a few rounds shall be pleased to note that I will be at the exchange bar tonight with titans of industry, tomorrow we spill the beans as per normal procedure
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