hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:paper losses, so for those who have stayed put when will the reverse happen?jimnah mbaru tweets around this time,
the first 5 gainers today did the allowed daily maximum according to mystocks Those gains are on vapour volume.
I expect the market to bounce in Q1, but not rally. In Q2 after mpesa bank announces their FY results the market will likely tank again because of the expected fiscal indiscipline as KE heads for elections. This will not offer a sustainable platform for a mid term rally this year. Also note that the Fed is likely going to hike the rates again this year (may be twice)!! A muscular USD and gok fiscal indiscipline will not favour any bullish outcome on the back of a limping economy and actualized profit warnings. If I were a large fund in KE I'd be looking at the money market for the rates are still going to be sky high in 2016.
Actualized profit warnings + strong USD + gok fiscal indiscipline (elections) + high interest rates = guaranteed recession!
Equities never sustain bullish rallies in deflationary grounds. @Hisah - I am skeptical if Kenya will see a deflation despite lower commodity [steel, copper, oil] prices due to profligate behavior by GoK.
The strong USD will push up the import bill for goods other than commodities which creates push inflation.
Equities, in general terms, will suffer which is why I am very selective in what I buy. Of course, I could buy wrong as well.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett