watu wa loan watalilia kwa choo

every financial analyst agrees jubilee has messed our economy,while every jubilee supporter says we better go down with power in their pockets,my lay mans view is that the SGR is important but could have waited longer,infact the money being spend on it is supposed to be making mombasa road a dual carriage all the way to mombasa which could be way cheaper before we can embark on the SGR afterwards

this SGR is one killer since the returns on it might take ages to match its cost

we will eat our tribal chiefs who have no leadership ideas even carrying out irrigation is difficult for them and the money disappears with nothing to show of it.

give us some hope men ,this is scaring ,the best thing is that by 2017 the dying gvt will not hide its sehemu nyeti as its doing now most maturity dates will have come

@Hisah is just being realistic, there's no room for "positive vibes" in investments and financial management. It's just cold hard facts. The yield has risen and it will rise even further. The funds have most likely been wasted. Now we're going back to investors in 2017/18 to seek a roll-over or just repay their interest. Let's analyse both options, if we roll-over the funds, Investors will be put off by the fact that the funds were largely unaccounted for plus by that time USD rates will be much higher in additional to any sovereign risk that may arise from elections. Therefore we may have to roll-over at 10-11% in USD. This will be painful. The other option is we pay it back in full. So essentially given our current account position we have to buy dollars locally from the market using KES so as to raise 2.75 billion (+ final interest) therefore the shilling may crash.

As Buffett said, if you borrow to buy things you don't need you will eventually have to sell the things that you need. That's where we are.

So essentially we may have to get into an IMF program in 2017/18 and that's very likely given current finance honchos and the president have very good relationships with the IMF. They will curtail government expenditures and limit credit growth and the economy will suffer.

@Liv your last sentence captures exactly what @hisah has been propagating (for lack of a better word) if you have been reading his comments in total. So i dont see where 'alarmist' is coming from. It is obvious this gave will need to borrow massively next year, where will they get the 'cheap' money from? Anyway let us wait and see who so right today in predicting the future

Back on the desk, I can see the market has been listless. I'm sure there will be direction in February once the reality of repayments checks in. USD at 105?