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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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Wakanyugi
#1281 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2015 12:09:51 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,635
Pesa Nane wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:
mugo2of3 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
GoK needs to rein in debt and recurrent expenditure but as you say it is easier to blame banks.

If banks cannot lend 'profitably' (risk-reward) they will stop lending to retail clients and move to lend to large corporates and GoK.


I am of the opinion that the Bill means well for Kenyans.

However, like Joe Donde in the 90s, the MPs will find that this won't be a walk in the park; Banks are in bed with influential people including the Top Guy (read CBA).

What will happen with Banks insatiable appetite for 'profitable' rates in the face of their declining roles in the financial landscape ??
Methinks the easiest option is lending rates.

As for the Govt's skewed economic policies, instead of supporting such a move to stimulate the economy via affordable credit, you can be sure they'll resist it and continue taxing Water, juice, Beer, Cigaretes and our 'Brand new' ex-japan cars...


Interesting take.

What I find strange is the fierce opposition from banks, a myopic view of things if you ask me. Reducing interest rates and thus making credit affordable to more Kenyans will massively expand the market as more people can borrow. Banks will end up making more.

What we have now is a throwback to the 90's where banking was a preserve of a small elite. We have made borrowing an elite privilege rather than a mass product available to most.

We need a brave company to do another 'Equity' or 'Mpesa' on these fellows.


You must have missed the "Instant Loans" being floated everywhere by yours truly, M-PESA


Those are Shylocks.

What I have in mind is a product that forces down the price of money and makes it a mass good (the way Equity/Safaricom have made banking access a mass product).

There is no economic reason I can see that justifies the extortionate interest rates we have, other than greed. Yet the negative impact on the economy is quite clear.
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
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Aguytrying
#1282 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2015 1:00:21 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@wakangunyi. With cbr at 11.5% what rate would be fair for the banks to charge?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Wakanyugi
#1283 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2015 2:46:51 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,635
Aguytrying wrote:
@wakangunyi. With cbr at 11.5% what rate would be fair for the banks to charge?


I can't say. But a spread of over 10% is obnoxious according to me. Greed is the word.

But we could start with an even more fundamental question. Why is the Kenyan CBR 11.5%?

Because government's greed for money knows no bounds; because Banks greed for money means they sell to the highest binder and Wanjiku be damned.

Meanwhile the people who could grow the economy, and hence make both of these eventualities moot, are starved of affordable credit. We cut our nose to spite our face and call it maendeleo.

"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
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deva
#1284 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2015 4:42:10 PM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 11/25/2015
Posts: 1
"We cut our nose to spite our face and call it maendeleo."

You have said it all.
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lochaz-index
#1285 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2015 8:07:23 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
MPs publish bill to tame interest rates

@VVS here we go again. I still expect politicians to continue taking the easiest way out while gok deflects attention from its debt mount and ugly corruption. The mood is skewed against the bank and cbk too will seize the opportunity. As for corruption more gok collection will be channelled via mpesa bank as a stop gap measure (cash ban!). I never expected such a play to show up where one would be debating whether to buy a bank stock vs mpesa instead of bank stock vs bank stock!! Mpesa bank will definitely continue to outperform the market for being in biz with govt of the day and in future!

The next phase is mpesa bank split for ease of monitoring.

@Hisah - MPesa bank isn't really a bank but the pressure will mount from both the banks and Airtel with another ally in Telkom now controlled by the "connected" Helios. Plus Helios has shares in Equity which also runs Orange Money! I think you are on the money with this one!

GoK needs to rein in debt and recurrent expenditure but as you say it is easier to blame banks.

If banks cannot lend 'profitably' (risk-reward) they will stop lending to retail clients and move to lend to large corporates and GoK.

The banking assault continues.

Kenya's president says banks will lose licenses for money laundering

Quote:
"From today, we have agreed that those banks that break our anti-money laundering laws and regulations will at a minimum lose their banking license," he said.


The negative sentiments are cranking and the top office is also onboard!!



What was in The Wave Principle.

Negative sentiment towards financials and heavy taxation by a debt burdened govt. One heck of a lethal cocktail. IPO biz is DoA going forward!

There is too much of an anti-bank campaign going on. Some are even advancing the idea that kenya is overbanked.

This is definitely a deleveraging cycle and banks will be in the cross hairs whether by design or default.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Mukiri
#1286 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2015 11:36:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
mnandii wrote:
As far as most wazuans can remember I have maintained that the KES should strengthen against the USD in the foreseable future. In fact my near term target is 82 against the USD as per chart below:



It is good that the daily chart of the pair agrees with this analysis as below:



This chart shows that the pair is falling impulsively (i.e KES is strengthening against the USD). In the interim I expect wave [ iv ] to complete at about 103.50s before a resumption of the fall towards and slightly below 100.

This outlook can only be set aside if the pair manages to rise above 106.80 level.

@Mnandii, where art thou? In your absence KES rose to 94, only to fall back 100. What might your predictions be?

Proverbs 19:21
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mlennyma
#1287 Posted : Monday, November 30, 2015 10:21:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
My good feelings tells me mr.market will move sideways until new years optimism when we will see serious rallies

Serious rallies are here.. Check ARM, HFCK, SCOM, KNRE.. Up next NMG, BAMB, JUB..

market dosing, the holiday mood is setting in early,indeed the market will be sideways upto next year.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Boris Boyka
#1288 Posted : Monday, November 30, 2015 10:38:42 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
mlennyma wrote:
obiero wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
My good feelings tells me mr.market will move sideways until new years optimism when we will see serious rallies

Serious rallies are here.. Check ARM, HFCK, SCOM, KNRE.. Up next NMG, BAMB, JUB..

market dosing, the holiday mood is setting in early,indeed the market will be sideways upto next year.

As gloomy as the weather. Let discounts come. 2-3 years we shall wait.
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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empoli
#1289 Posted : Tuesday, December 01, 2015 9:51:37 AM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 11/23/2015
Posts: 3
Location: naivasha
sparkly wrote:
empoli wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
empoli wrote:
I'm very green in stocks. would like advice on where to invest in the current market. please wazuans....advice the greenhorn. will greatly appreciate.


Read through the threads and you'll get an idea of what people think. But before you buy learn alot about stocks



Thanks for response. I've read tonnes of articles and sort advice. Would like now to plunge ahead. This email is minesmile assist where possible. coolmiposi@gmail.com


Happy to assist. How much do you want to invest?


About 200k. My options?
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sparkly
#1290 Posted : Tuesday, December 01, 2015 11:41:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
empoli wrote:
sparkly wrote:
empoli wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
empoli wrote:
I'm very green in stocks. would like advice on where to invest in the current market. please wazuans....advice the greenhorn. will greatly appreciate.


Read through the threads and you'll get an idea of what people think. But before you buy learn alot about stocks



Thanks for response. I've read tonnes of articles and sort advice. Would like now to plunge ahead. This email is minesmile assist where possible. coolmiposi@gmail.com


Happy to assist. How much do you want to invest?


About 200k. My options?


Check email.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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