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World War III
quicksand
#21 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2015 8:23:59 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/5/2010
Posts: 2,061
Location: Nairobi
Much Know wrote:
Don't know why it seems this is a war against Putin's ego, the fellow seems isolated, China is not interested in this "war" yes he has nuclear weapons (tusiende hapo please for now), but everyone has different objectives and Putin is badly outnumbered (unless iran is an alley to speak of), and his economy is shrinking, China seem more concerned with their internal affairs after killing one child policy, they are definitely not interested, is Russia and Putin not more or less alone, outnumbered seriously?

Putin is not foolish. If the interwebs is to be believed, he will not let Assad fall because Assad is standing between Qatar and a gas pipeline to Europe. That gas pipeline directly threatens Russia's economy and strategic power.
I am not sure what NATO is doing but backing Russia into a corner would be a careless and extremely dangerous mistake. Some Tzu something or other said to give your opponent some means of escape.
Russia does not even have to fire her nukes or other nasty chemical and biological weapons said to be developed and hidden under the Siberian ice; They could sell the lot to North Korea for example. Imagine then just how dangerous the world would become. Heck, even a large outflow of conventional weapons from a starving Russia, unable to sell its gas or do much of any economic activity would be very bad news. We have precedent. Lots of arms fuelling current guerilla wars and waved by terrorists came from Russia!
tycho
#22 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2015 8:28:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
nakujua wrote:
tycho wrote:
nakujua wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Don't know why it seems this is a war against Putin's ego, the fellow seems isolated, China is not interested in this "war" yes he has nuclear weapons (tusiende hapo please for now), but everyone has different objectives and Putin is badly outnumbered (unless iran is an alley to speak of), and his economy is shrinking, China seem more concerned with their internal affairs after killing one child policy, they are definitely not interested, is Russia and Putin not more or less alone, outnumbered seriously?

Its 28 against 1, no single outside country can go against NATO and win - but you have to give it to the Russians, even if they are seriously outnumbered and out resourced they still stand with their man Assad


What if the balance is shifted to Russia's advantage by Putin's assertion that Ankara is aiding terrorism? Would NATO still stand together?

So far, Russia has the upper hand on this. A diplomatic solution will be found na game iendelee.

Honestly I don't see NATO leaving one of their members in the cold, I think the formation of the organization was actually in part due to the Soviets, and the image of an organization that fights for its member has to be upheld at ll costs.

I also think the NATO members know what Erdogan is up to, and what he is doing - its like discovering one of your children is involved in crime, you don't anika them - makosa yametendeka.

The biggest problem with what Turkey did is the precedent it sets, especially looking at what China is doing on those artificial islands.


Backing Turkey will be difficult even if the leaders of NATO wish it. The cost of that is enormous. If Ankara's support for ISIS continues then the war will intensify, hence militant attacks across the world. But the citizens are afraid and economies are faltering.

Turkey, may even implode.
Ngalaka
#23 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2015 8:37:31 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/29/2008
Posts: 1,566

Putin may be adventurous, but he is certainly not as reckless as we seem to portray him here.
Deep inside his heart he knows that his plane violated Turkeys airspace and were warned several times before the downing.
This was not even the first time the violation had happened.

War is no child's play and wouldn't start without a compelling reason.
I see Russia responding via alternative means.
Isuni yilu yi maa me muyo - ni Mbisuu
newfarer
#24 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2015 8:50:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2010
Posts: 3,503
Location: Uganda
tycho wrote:
nakujua wrote:
tycho wrote:
nakujua wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Don't know why it seems this is a war against Putin's ego, the fellow seems isolated, China is not interested in this "war" yes he has nuclear weapons (tusiende hapo please for now), but everyone has different objectives and Putin is badly outnumbered (unless iran is an alley to speak of), and his economy is shrinking, China seem more concerned with their internal affairs after killing one child policy, they are definitely not interested, is Russia and Putin not more or less alone, outnumbered seriously?

Its 28 against 1, no single outside country can go against NATO and win - but you have to give it to the Russians, even if they are seriously outnumbered and out resourced they still stand with their man Assad


What if the balance is shifted to Russia's advantage by Putin's assertion that Ankara is aiding terrorism? Would NATO still stand together?

So far, Russia has the upper hand on this. A diplomatic solution will be found na game iendelee.

Honestly I don't see NATO leaving one of their members in the cold, I think the formation of the organization was actually in part due to the Soviets, and the image of an organization that fights for its member has to be upheld at ll costs.

I also think the NATO members know what Erdogan is up to, and what he is doing - its like discovering one of your children is involved in crime, you don't anika them - makosa yametendeka.

The biggest problem with what Turkey did is the precedent it sets, especially looking at what China is doing on those artificial islands.


Backing Turkey will be difficult even if the leaders of NATO wish it. The cost of that is enormous. If Ankara's support for ISIS continues then the war will intensify, hence militant attacks across the world. But the citizens are afraid and economies are faltering.

Turkey, may even implode.


Good attempt
punda amecheka
newfarer
#25 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2015 8:52:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2010
Posts: 3,503
Location: Uganda
tycho wrote:
nakujua wrote:
tycho wrote:
nakujua wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Don't know why it seems this is a war against Putin's ego, the fellow seems isolated, China is not interested in this "war" yes he has nuclear weapons (tusiende hapo please for now), but everyone has different objectives and Putin is badly outnumbered (unless iran is an alley to speak of), and his economy is shrinking, China seem more concerned with their internal affairs after killing one child policy, they are definitely not interested, is Russia and Putin not more or less alone, outnumbered seriously?

Its 28 against 1, no single outside country can go against NATO and win - but you have to give it to the Russians, even if they are seriously outnumbered and out resourced they still stand with their man Assad


What if the balance is shifted to Russia's advantage by Putin's assertion that Ankara is aiding terrorism? Would NATO still stand together?

So far, Russia has the upper hand on this. A diplomatic solution will be found na game iendelee.

Honestly I don't see NATO leaving one of their members in the cold, I think the formation of the organization was actually in part due to the Soviets, and the image of an organization that fights for its member has to be upheld at ll costs.

I also think the NATO members know what Erdogan is up to, and what he is doing - its like discovering one of your children is involved in crime, you don't anika them - makosa yametendeka.

The biggest problem with what Turkey did is the precedent it sets, especially looking at what China is doing on those artificial islands.


Backing Turkey will be difficult even if the leaders of NATO wish it. The cost of that is enormous. If Ankara's support for ISIS continues then the war will intensify, hence militant attacks across the world. But the citizens are afraid and economies are faltering.

Turkey, may even implode.


Good attempt
punda amecheka
¿
#26 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2015 5:58:51 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/4/2015
Posts: 604
Anti_Burglar wrote:
¿ wrote:
tycho wrote:
I doubt if this war is about the East or West. Even, previous wars haven't been a clash of polarities. The second world war was won by allied forces, same for ww1. Allied forces were East plus West.

Polarity is an emergence after change in world order and in this case we may have a multi-polar world with spheres of influence getting into religion, capital structure, ethnicity, social networks and that kind of thing.

The trick is to find a sphere of influence in a globalized world that can meet our needs. For example a multicultural and secularist network with capital creation accessible to most members will be the most stable and prosperous sphere. So far the people of the world are struggling to create it. Once again it will emerge by itself but aligning ourselves to such ideals is of strategic importance.


Multiculturalism is itself a cultural value caught up in the paradox of tolerance.

Quote:
The tolerance paradox arises when a tolerant person holds antagonistic views towards intolerance, and hence is intolerant of it. The tolerant individual would then be by definition intolerant of intolerance.


Though intolerance is a factor, the pursuit and protection of wealth and power is present among the major players.Conflict is just competition shrouded in political correctness and propaganda in the pursuit of common goals.


Can there be an end to war?


Possible but improbable.
¿
#27 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2015 6:02:25 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/4/2015
Posts: 604
nakujua wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Don't know why it seems this is a war against Putin's ego, the fellow seems isolated, China is not interested in this "war" yes he has nuclear weapons (tusiende hapo please for now), but everyone has different objectives and Putin is badly outnumbered (unless iran is an alley to speak of), and his economy is shrinking, China seem more concerned with their internal affairs after killing one child policy, they are definitely not interested, is Russia and Putin not more or less alone, outnumbered seriously?

Its 28 against 1, no single outside country can go against NATO and win - but you have to give it to the Russians, even if they are seriously outnumbered and out resourced they still stand with their man Assad

http://static4.businessi...20at%208.10.16%20am.png
¿
#28 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2015 6:13:08 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/4/2015
Posts: 604
tycho wrote:
@¿, It's true that multiculturalism has so far been faced with a paradox of being in fact intolerant in spite of its protestations. The immigration crises across the globe, the apparent escalation of racial tension is evidence for this.

The question I'd ask myself is whether tolerance is the only basis for multiculturalism. I think not. There's also acceptance. I believe acceptance because there's evidence that it has worked, not for a brief period but a pretty long period of human history.

Think of a world where all humans are accepted, respected and loved.

@Anti_B, you ask about the result this conflict; first it's a challenge to humans, so minds will go 'over drive' and consciousness will rise. Man will transform. It may be a long process but I'm optimistic. For me this is the main thing that's happening. The human mind is being stirred, solutions are being sought, experimented upon, so much pushing and pulling, dying, but he'll certainly emerge victorious with the end of war.


Multiculturalism only works with cultures that already hold the values and views it promotes. It's a world view.
¿
#29 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2015 6:45:49 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/4/2015
Posts: 604
tycho wrote:
limanika wrote:
Check your facts. World war only happened when there was attempt to defeat existing superpower and transition to new one- something only done by force


That's what happened because world order is dependent on powers and the balance of power holding them together. When order is threatened then the involved powers will have to act, and war has been a favorite tool. But it's not the only tool, or even an effective tool. And the alignments are always fluid.

To make matters worse globalization won't allow for violence. Think of terrorism as the new art of war in a global arena. It's a big threat to stability; in the long term it's bad business. And nation states can no longer afford long wars. Even the use of robots is now being resisted.

Power is shifting, or has shifted drastically.


The world is more interdependent but world order has not yet been threatened. The balance of power may change but the system remains the same. War can be used as a scapegoat for global economic woes but benefiting from the death and suffering of others is still an acceptable part of the system.
tycho
#30 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2015 9:15:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
¿ wrote:
tycho wrote:
limanika wrote:
Check your facts. World war only happened when there was attempt to defeat existing superpower and transition to new one- something only done by force


That's what happened because world order is dependent on powers and the balance of power holding them together. When order is threatened then the involved powers will have to act, and war has been a favorite tool. But it's not the only tool, or even an effective tool. And the alignments are always fluid.

To make matters worse globalization won't allow for violence. Think of terrorism as the new art of war in a global arena. It's a big threat to stability; in the long term it's bad business. And nation states can no longer afford long wars. Even the use of robots is now being resisted.

Power is shifting, or has shifted drastically.


The world is more interdependent but world order has not yet been threatened. The balance of power may change but the system remains the same. War can be used as a scapegoat for global economic woes but benefiting from the death and suffering of others is still an acceptable part of the system.


What makes you say that world order isn't under threat?
Anti_Burglar
#31 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2015 9:20:58 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 1,024
Much Know wrote:
Don't know why it seems this is a war against Putin's ego, the fellow seems isolated, China is not interested in this "war" yes he has nuclear weapons (tusiende hapo please for now), but everyone has different objectives and Putin is badly outnumbered (unless iran is an alley to speak of), and his economy is shrinking, China seem more concerned with their internal affairs after killing one child policy, they are definitely not interested, is Russia and Putin not more or less alone, outnumbered seriously?


Know Nothing, don't be such a sheep who believes and swears on 'herd mentality'. You have been told and shown countless times by a certain brother of ours how countries have been ruined one after another by a clique of contries acting like a herd. So now measures have been taken and the next threat will definitely be destroyed. Your sort of brinkmanship will ruin the world but those individuals not belonging to your sheepish herd will stop you.
Much Know
#32 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2015 9:49:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
quicksand wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Don't know why it seems this is a war against Putin's ego, the fellow seems isolated, China is not interested in this "war" yes he has nuclear weapons (tusiende hapo please for now), but everyone has different objectives and Putin is badly outnumbered (unless iran is an alley to speak of), and his economy is shrinking, China seem more concerned with their internal affairs after killing one child policy, they are definitely not interested, is Russia and Putin not more or less alone, outnumbered seriously?

Putin is not foolish

I beg to differ, Putin is quite a foolish, masochistic "karate guy" idiot if you have never followed him in the press, his fighter pilots have been making provoking moves this is nothing new in the press, the guy put genuine business men on the oil issue you make a fuss out of in in jail and f***ed up the oil economy there, he does everything in Russia, typical KGB matakafa masochistic shit, the guy held a FAKE election to alledgely handover power to a new president, the guy becomes "prime minister" then suddenly he is really in the same position he was, this is the kind of utoto than can only be supported by peeps with utoi, do you know Putin? Guy is an idiot bwana! Assad used chemical weapon's for heavens sake, who sides with such? Remember the US was with Assad till the chemical weapon's fiasco.
A New Kenya
quicksand
#33 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2015 1:09:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/5/2010
Posts: 2,061
Location: Nairobi
Much Know wrote:
quicksand wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Don't know why it seems this is a war against Putin's ego, the fellow seems isolated, China is not interested in this "war" yes he has nuclear weapons (tusiende hapo please for now), but everyone has different objectives and Putin is badly outnumbered (unless iran is an alley to speak of), and his economy is shrinking, China seem more concerned with their internal affairs after killing one child policy, they are definitely not interested, is Russia and Putin not more or less alone, outnumbered seriously?

Putin is not foolish

I beg to differ, Putin is quite a foolish, masochistic "karate guy" idiot if you have never followed him in the press, his fighter pilots have been making provoking moves this is nothing new in the press, the guy put genuine business men on the oil issue you make a fuss out of in in jail and f***ed up the oil economy there, he does everything in Russia, typical KGB matakafa masochistic shit, the guy held a FAKE election to alledgely handover power to a new president, the guy becomes "prime minister" then suddenly he is really in the same position he was, this is the kind of utoto than can only be supported by peeps with utoi, do you know Putin? Guy is an idiot bwana! Assad used chemical weapon's for heavens sake, who sides with such? Remember the US was with Assad till the chemical weapon's fiasco.

So you dislike his antics. Fair enough. That was not my point though -my claim he is not foolish is in a narrow sense -you can't be on top in a country of billionaire cut-throats like Russia for this long if you don't have a devious, first-rate machiavellian mind. I don't condone most of the stuff he does, but deep dark down there some of it makes sense in a warped, out-of-the-world sort of way. May be Russia is one of those countries that needs a batshit crazy person ruling to keep it all together. Things look bad because there is relative calm and sanity there; we do not know what evil, destructive forces Putin has ruthlessly brought to heel, which let loose, Russia would look like the apocalypse, and the world again brought to the edge of an abyss by its scruff.
For context, there is Gaddafi and Saddam. Intensely disliked by the rest of the world, the west in particular. And yes, they did deplorable things in their time, like the Lockerbie disaster, and the gassing of Kurds, to mention a few. Then the west orchestrated things and the 2 were ejected from power and now look where we are.
The man who said better the devil you know might have had a point.
Anyway, semantics.
¿
#34 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2015 3:51:05 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/4/2015
Posts: 604
tycho wrote:
¿ wrote:
tycho wrote:
limanika wrote:
Check your facts. World war only happened when there was attempt to defeat existing superpower and transition to new one- something only done by force


That's what happened because world order is dependent on powers and the balance of power holding them together. When order is threatened then the involved powers will have to act, and war has been a favorite tool. But it's not the only tool, or even an effective tool. And the alignments are always fluid.

To make matters worse globalization won't allow for violence. Think of terrorism as the new art of war in a global arena. It's a big threat to stability; in the long term it's bad business. And nation states can no longer afford long wars. Even the use of robots is now being resisted.

Power is shifting, or has shifted drastically.


The world is more interdependent but world order has not yet been threatened. The balance of power may change but the system remains the same. War can be used as a scapegoat for global economic woes but benefiting from the death and suffering of others is still an acceptable part of the system.


What makes you say that world order isn't under threat?


Britain and the permanent members of the UNSC are the largest arms exporters.They are also the largest economies. The members may change and power may shift, but it's just winners and losers in the same order. It's like keeping score on the scramble for Africa.
Dawnwoods
#35 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2015 6:14:39 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/22/2014
Posts: 56
They wants to perform Onychectomy to the Bear.
In Ukraine and Syria..
The Bear takes Crimea mainly bec of Sevestopol
Now, Kiev has no ultimate control of Donestk.
Bear likes warm naval water of Sevestopol
Enter Syria…
Pipeline needs to pass thru Aleppo from 4 mid east countries.
Mostly Sunni nations
This will cripple the Bear Completely
Bear depends on fossil fuel mostly
Bear is resistant and has a Base there.
Bear strikes FSA.
The Eagle arms the FSA
WW3 not possible but not inconceivable
Bear has 2 Allies
Eagle has 28 allies.
The Dragon has no interest in the whole thing
Eagle will not stop until Bear is out financially and politically
High propensity of escalation soon
Probably Def Con 2.. lets say close to 5 min to midnight
But de-escalation thereafter
whiteowl
#36 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2015 9:33:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
Much Know wrote:
quicksand wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Don't know why it seems this is a war against Putin's ego, the fellow seems isolated, China is not interested in this "war" yes he has nuclear weapons (tusiende hapo please for now), but everyone has different objectives and Putin is badly outnumbered (unless iran is an alley to speak of), and his economy is shrinking, China seem more concerned with their internal affairs after killing one child policy, they are definitely not interested, is Russia and Putin not more or less alone, outnumbered seriously?

Putin is not foolish

I beg to differ, Putin is quite a foolish, masochistic "karate guy" idiot if you have never followed him in the press, his fighter pilots have been making provoking moves this is nothing new in the press, the guy put genuine business men on the oil issue you make a fuss out of in in jail and f***ed up the oil economy there, he does everything in Russia, typical KGB matakafa masochistic shit, the guy held a FAKE election to alledgely handover power to a new president, the guy becomes "prime minister" then suddenly he is really in the same position he was, this is the kind of utoto than can only be supported by peeps with utoi, do you know Putin? Guy is an idiot bwana! Assad used chemical weapon's for heavens sake, who sides with such? Remember the US was with Assad till the chemical weapon's fiasco.


LOL you sound like a CIA sympathizer
wanyee
#37 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2015 1:22:21 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
It all started with MH370...this stealth war business.
tycho
#38 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2015 8:38:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
¿ wrote:
tycho wrote:
¿ wrote:
tycho wrote:
limanika wrote:
Check your facts. World war only happened when there was attempt to defeat existing superpower and transition to new one- something only done by force


That's what happened because world order is dependent on powers and the balance of power holding them together. When order is threatened then the involved powers will have to act, and war has been a favorite tool. But it's not the only tool, or even an effective tool. And the alignments are always fluid.

To make matters worse globalization won't allow for violence. Think of terrorism as the new art of war in a global arena. It's a big threat to stability; in the long term it's bad business. And nation states can no longer afford long wars. Even the use of robots is now being resisted.

Power is shifting, or has shifted drastically.


The world is more interdependent but world order has not yet been threatened. The balance of power may change but the system remains the same. War can be used as a scapegoat for global economic woes but benefiting from the death and suffering of others is still an acceptable part of the system.


What makes you say that world order isn't under threat?


Britain and the permanent members of the UNSC are the largest arms exporters.They are also the largest economies. The members may change and power may shift, but it's just winners and losers in the same order. It's like keeping score on the scramble for Africa.


World order seems to be more about ideas, relationships, demand, roles, technology and the like. What you're saying accounts for a part of the picture.
tycho
#39 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2015 9:39:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
Anti_Burglar
#40 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2015 9:46:57 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 1,024
Dawnwoods wrote:
They wants to perform Onychectomy to the Bear.
In Ukraine and Syria..
The Bear takes Crimea mainly bec of Sevestopol
Now, Kiev has no ultimate control of Donestk.
Bear likes warm naval water of Sevestopol
Enter Syria…
Pipeline needs to pass thru Aleppo from 4 mid east countries.
Mostly Sunni nations
This will cripple the Bear Completely
Bear depends on fossil fuel mostly
Bear is resistant and has a Base there.
Bear strikes FSA.
The Eagle arms the FSA
WW3 not possible but not inconceivable
Bear has 2 Allies
Eagle has 28 allies.
The Dragon has no interest in the whole thing
Eagle will not stop until Bear is out financially and politically
High propensity of escalation soon
Probably Def Con 2.. lets say close to 5 min to midnight
But de-escalation thereafter


The dragon has interests on the eagle approaching its islands. The eagle knows it's talons cannot grip opposite sides of the world efficiently at the same time.
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