lochaz-index wrote:In the short term, I think we are headed for a tug of war between the cbk and the banks. The sudden(manipulated) drop in the tbills and bonds is meant to cushion the government from the coming 2016 financial/debt storm.
By affording the government some breathing space, treasury is able to source for cheap debt repayments funds in the domestic front hence the latest directive by cbk for banks to lower interest rates.
Problem is with the economy in bad shape, the premium(k)-inclusive of credit risk-charged by banks over and above the KBRR is more likely to increase than reduce. By directing the banks to lower interest rates, the cbk is forcing them to expand their loan books and give out riskier credit with no corresponding return. This will in turn exercebate their NPL's, LLP's and various capital ratios. It will be foolhardy of them to comply.
Knowing the drop in rates is temporary I don't expect banks to budge on interest rates. The cbk might be forced onto more desperate measures to reign in the banks.
This should take a while to resolve itself and both can't have their way.
Very perceptive and the same discussion I was having yesterday. The banks have increased their "K" to catch up to the high T-Bill rates and are unlikely to reduce the "K" any time soon.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett