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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
mwekez@ji
#1221 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2015 9:09:22 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
As long as gok has crazy bills to pay next year after those tbills and tbonds rocketed, the bulls will find it hard to float the market because of that pay day period. While hoping that another banking event doesn't pop up! Keep this in mind.

gok will be trading expensive bills for cheap ones. that should be okay.
Angelica _ann
#1222 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2015 9:27:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
mwekez@ji wrote:
hisah wrote:
As long as gok has crazy bills to pay next year after those tbills and tbonds rocketed, the bulls will find it hard to float the market because of that pay day period. While hoping that another banking event doesn't pop up! Keep this in mind.

gok will be trading expensive bills for cheap ones. that should be okay.

How will they bridge the looming tax revenue shortfall. Likely to hit 150b if Q1 experience is an indicator of collection performance.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
mwekez@ji
#1223 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2015 9:30:37 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Angelica _ann wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
hisah wrote:
As long as gok has crazy bills to pay next year after those tbills and tbonds rocketed, the bulls will find it hard to float the market because of that pay day period. While hoping that another banking event doesn't pop up! Keep this in mind.

gok will be trading expensive bills for cheap ones. that should be okay.

How will they bridge the looming tax revenue shortfall. Likely to hit 150b if Q1 experience is an indicator of collection performance.

Q1 usually have low collections with higher collections being made as the year progresses
Spikes
#1224 Posted : Tuesday, November 10, 2015 9:48:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Hii bear inakaa kama ambayo haijaisha nguvu!!!! maybe next week tsunami rebound will hit many counters with accelerated %s each day.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
hisah
#1225 Posted : Tuesday, November 10, 2015 4:45:36 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Usual cartoonist gang have a look at what I've spotted on SPX 500 on this simple 7yr chart (monthly). Note that volume! Also spot that trend line retest after that sizable selloff in August. The next move will blow out the lights i.e. a huge selloff or a huge rally. Volatility will escalate to parabolic levels very quickly. Caution people. This move will be felt across the globe!

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1226 Posted : Tuesday, November 10, 2015 4:59:04 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwekez@ji wrote:
hisah wrote:
As long as gok has crazy bills to pay next year after those tbills and tbonds rocketed, the bulls will find it hard to float the market because of that pay day period. While hoping that another banking event doesn't pop up! Keep this in mind.

gok will be trading expensive bills for cheap ones. that should be okay.

I'm very skeptical going by the current political affairs as well as next year the political campaigns start. During such periods fiscal discipline is not observed.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
VituVingiSana
#1227 Posted : Wednesday, November 11, 2015 2:50:03 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
hisah wrote:
As long as gok has crazy bills to pay next year after those tbills and tbonds rocketed, the bulls will find it hard to float the market because of that pay day period. While hoping that another banking event doesn't pop up! Keep this in mind.

gok will be trading expensive bills for cheap ones. that should be okay.

Not really the case. The expensive T-Bills have been issued and many go out for 12 months at 22%.
The cheaper T-Bills are thanks to QE by CBK as a response to the collapse of Imperial Bank & the panic withdrawals from (good) Tier 2 & 3 banks. CBK is entering into Reverse Repos with many banks at the CBR rate to inject liquidity. This was a good move by PNN otherwise more banks could have had liquidity issues.

http://www.businessdaily...6/-/5r3ttd/-/index.html

Ultimately, the answer lies in FISCAL DISCIPLINE. The new short-term (2-yr) USD 600mn facility will come back to bite us before we know it. And then the 5-yr T-Bond (issued in 2014) soon thereafter. I do not even know what the terms of the Chinese loans are.

As @hisah says... elections do not make for fiscal discipline especially when the incumbent is running for re-election . The pain comes after the election.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mnandii
#1228 Posted : Wednesday, November 11, 2015 12:39:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Quote:
Imperial Bank managers understated deposits by Sh38bn

Imperial Bank managers understated the lender’s deposits by Sh38 billion and squeezed its loan book to hide a massive fraud scheme that led to its closure last month, the Central Bank of Kenya said Tuesday.

Understating the size of its business also allowed the bank to operate with lower capital than it needed while keeping the regulators happy.

“We also discovered that Imperial Bank’s financial statements were not correct and were actually misleading. For instance, the deposits were understated by Sh38 billion and the lending by such order of magnitude, which was not shown in its accounts,” Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) governor Patrick Njoroge said during a hearing of the Senate’s Finance Committee.



link

Fundamentalists rely so much on Financial Statements that businesses churn in order to take a position in the market. Now in a situation such as above where there is fraud in books, what do they do??! Imperial Bank floated a bond which was fully subscribed based on the said 'fundamentals' only to be presented with such scandal just at the time your money is locked in!

Remember we said that in times of negative social mood people seek out scandals. Expect more to be revealed as the bear becomes more intense. Note that the scandals were perpetrated over several years when mood was still positive yet they were not revealed then.

Elliott waves cut to the chase. You look for tradeable patterns and trade them. If there is no worthwhile wave count you don't bother.

And by the way there is no way to tell which management team is 'good' versus 'bad'.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Muthawamunene
#1229 Posted : Thursday, November 12, 2015 1:36:13 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
hisah wrote:
As long as gok has crazy bills to pay next year after those tbills and tbonds rocketed, the bulls will find it hard to float the market because of that pay day period. While hoping that another banking event doesn't pop up! Keep this in mind.

gok will be trading expensive bills for cheap ones. that should be okay.

Not really the case. The expensive T-Bills have been issued and many go out for 12 months at 22%.
The cheaper T-Bills are thanks to QE by CBK as a response to the collapse of Imperial Bank & the panic withdrawals from (good) Tier 2 & 3 banks. CBK is entering into Reverse Repos with many banks at the CBR rate to inject liquidity. This was a good move by PNN otherwise more banks could have had liquidity issues.

http://www.businessdaily...6/-/5r3ttd/-/index.html

Ultimately, the answer lies in FISCAL DISCIPLINE. The new short-term (2-yr) USD 600mn facility will come back to bite us before we know it. And then the 5-yr T-Bond (issued in 2014) soon thereafter. I do not even know what the terms of the Chinese loans are.

As @hisah says... elections do not make for fiscal discipline especially when the incumbent is running for re-election . The pain comes after the election.



The Illumicorp. While this most likely is a fictional video, the concepts it lays are so real. 'Debt is a powerful tool in controlling the world' No wonder the IMF is pushing these loans down our throats.

Kenya - IMF, IMF, IMF on the wall, who's the financially prettiest of them all?
IMF - You are, Kenya, the most stable of them all.
(but unlike in Snow White, the mirror lies)

lochaz-index
#1230 Posted : Friday, November 13, 2015 3:00:50 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
In the short term, I think we are headed for a tug of war between the cbk and the banks. The sudden(manipulated) drop in the tbills and bonds is meant to cushion the government from the coming 2016 financial/debt storm.

By affording the government some breathing space, treasury is able to source for cheap debt repayments funds in the domestic front hence the latest directive by cbk for banks to lower interest rates.

Problem is with the economy in bad shape, the premium(k)-inclusive of credit risk-charged by banks over and above the KBRR is more likely to increase than reduce. By directing the banks to lower interest rates, the cbk is forcing them to expand their loan books and give out riskier credit with no corresponding return. This will in turn exercebate their NPL's, LLP's and various capital ratios. It will be foolhardy of them to comply.

Knowing the drop in rates is temporary I don't expect banks to budge on interest rates. The cbk might be forced onto more desperate measures to reign in the banks.

This should take a while to resolve itself and both can't have their way.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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