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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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hisah
#1211 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2015 3:33:19 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Spikes wrote:
The bear is seemingly over. Next week the rebound will be so powerful if government papers are oversubscribed this week. Jump in investors! Jump in speculators!

Clearly you've never experienced a bear.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Othelo
#1212 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2015 3:42:54 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
Liv wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Most people who have 'made it' in Kenya believe that they are above politics. That is okey but you should know that the political situation in a country determines the kind of life you live. Socionomists have determined that a large bear market in stocks portends violent behaviour and even major wars. I have stated this before and will state it again. If our stock market fall sufficiently strongly (e.g. below 3000) the you should prepare for disruptions caused by war/violent clashes. None other than the Chief Justice of the Republic has warned of the possibility of a return to violent clashes. Heed him! Politicians are already whipping their people into line this early (when the NSE has fallen from a high of 5500 to about 3800). This violent clash that I foresee will be worse than the 2007-2008 one.

Of course there are people who still don't believe in Elliott Waves (and by extension Socionomics). The best advice I can give is for such people to read the Elliott Wave Principle (it is only about 250 pages) and then keenly follow markets and 'see' if they don't really apply. Arguing with @mnandii will not help you. You managed to be where you are through study. Extend that effort into a new area and see the world differently!



What a delusion?
1. Elliott waves are good at describing historical human behavior but they cannot be used to predict anything exactly. Otherwise many people would have used them to become billionaires in the world. You can't even predict where the curve will go tomorrow or where the curve will turn.

2. Whatever happens in USA cannot be assumed to happen in Africa. Human behavior is also determined and controlled by culture and environment.

3. In 2007 NSE 20 index was at its highest point in its history if I am not wrong.... That's when the country had the worse violence. Your theory above does not hold water in this case.

4. From culture and history of the tribes in Kenya..... Only 2 tribes are capable of going to war..... kikuyu and Nandi. If these 2 are not against each other, the likelihood of war is too slim..... you can take that to any bank. Your prediction of violence clashes because of a poor performing stock exchange is far fetched.

Spot on, why then people are always on Baba's case smile
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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instinct
#1213 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2015 4:14:01 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
Othelo wrote:
Liv wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Most people who have 'made it' in Kenya believe that they are above politics. That is okey but you should know that the political situation in a country determines the kind of life you live. Socionomists have determined that a large bear market in stocks portends violent behaviour and even major wars. I have stated this before and will state it again. If our stock market fall sufficiently strongly (e.g. below 3000) the you should prepare for disruptions caused by war/violent clashes. None other than the Chief Justice of the Republic has warned of the possibility of a return to violent clashes. Heed him! Politicians are already whipping their people into line this early (when the NSE has fallen from a high of 5500 to about 3800). This violent clash that I foresee will be worse than the 2007-2008 one.

Of course there are people who still don't believe in Elliott Waves (and by extension Socionomics). The best advice I can give is for such people to read the Elliott Wave Principle (it is only about 250 pages) and then keenly follow markets and 'see' if they don't really apply. Arguing with @mnandii will not help you. You managed to be where you are through study. Extend that effort into a new area and see the world differently!



What a delusion?
1. Elliott waves are good at describing historical human behavior but they cannot be used to predict anything exactly. Otherwise many people would have used them to become billionaires in the world. You can't even predict where the curve will go tomorrow or where the curve will turn.

2. Whatever happens in USA cannot be assumed to happen in Africa. Human behavior is also determined and controlled by culture and environment.

3. In 2007 NSE 20 index was at its highest point in its history if I am not wrong.... That's when the country had the worse violence. Your theory above does not hold water in this case.

4. From culture and history of the tribes in Kenya..... Only 2 tribes are capable of going to war..... kikuyu and Nandi. If these 2 are not against each other, the likelihood of war is too slim..... you can take that to any bank. Your prediction of violence clashes because of a poor performing stock exchange is far fetched.

Spot on, why then people are always on Baba's case smile



The people capable of violence do not even follow the events at the NSE, leave alone track its index. Unless you mean when NSE reaches 2900, at the same time there will be skyrocketing inflation esp. food prices, massive corruption and dictatorial tendencies by the ruling elite? Only the later can cause unrest in kenya..
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Aguytrying
#1214 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2015 4:16:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
Spikes wrote:
The bear is seemingly over. Next week the rebound will be so powerful if government papers are oversubscribed this week. Jump in investors! Jump in speculators!

Clearly you've never experienced a bear.


Waiting to hear what tune @Spikes will be singing one year from now
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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4eva eva
#1215 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2015 4:27:47 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 11/3/2015
Posts: 45
Location: Mombatha
Bears make money, Bulls make money but pigs get slaughtered
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muandiwambeu
#1216 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2015 5:46:07 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
WSTruism
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Boris Boyka
#1217 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2015 6:58:18 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
Spikes wrote:
The bear is seemingly over. Next week the rebound will be so powerful if government papers are oversubscribed this week. Jump in investors! Jump in speculators!

Clearly you've never experienced a bear.


Waiting to hear what tune @Spikes will be singing one year from now

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly As we live we grow, as we grow we learn. Learning is as a result of experience.
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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moneydust
#1218 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2015 7:25:11 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 304
mnandii wrote:
streetwise wrote:
What is the narrative , why does he say that it is the worst form of investment


Usually results in losses because they are introduced just about the time when real estate bubble is about to burst.


You could be having a point here.With the current going
ons in the Kenyan real estate market,people must be careful lest they be left holding a monkey.
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hisah
#1219 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2015 7:39:26 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
As long as gok has crazy bills to pay next year after those tbills and tbonds rocketed, the bulls will find it hard to float the market because of that pay day period. While hoping that another banking event doesn't pop up! Keep this in mind.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, November 09, 2015 7:40 PM | Reason: Not specified
lochaz-index
#1220 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2015 8:27:44 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
My bet is for the next crunch(should be worse than the one we just experienced) to show up at around the end of January 2016.

When the customary slow down in activity and slump of NSE prices at year end meets with a cash crunch at the turn of the new year..... Should be a sight to behold.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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