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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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whiteowl wrote:hisah wrote:whiteowl wrote:I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week. The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier. You're spot on with the charts but where will liquidity to support this mini rally come from? Or has the reverse repos cash hit your account?  The bounce is due to selling fatigue - few sellers at the moment so bids will be revised higher to tempt sellers.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/7/2014 Posts: 155
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whiteowl wrote:hisah wrote:whiteowl wrote:I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week. The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier. You're spot on with the charts but where will liquidity to support this mini rally come from? Or has the reverse repos cash hit your account? @whiteowl....if the 91 day Tbill, govt was given 83B and only accepted a very small amount.I believe the amount will find its way to the Stocks market.My guess
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
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kasibitta wrote:whiteowl wrote:hisah wrote:whiteowl wrote:I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week. The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier. You're spot on with the charts but where will liquidity to support this mini rally come from? Or has the reverse repos cash hit your account? @whiteowl....if the 91 day Tbill, govt was given 83B and only accepted a very small amount.I believe the amount will find its way to the Stocks market.My guess it might first wait for next week's auction. if the rates are lower then it will find its way to the stock market from Monday 16th..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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instinct wrote:kasibitta wrote:whiteowl wrote:hisah wrote:whiteowl wrote:I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week. The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier. You're spot on with the charts but where will liquidity to support this mini rally come from? Or has the reverse repos cash hit your account? @whiteowl....if the 91 day Tbill, govt was given 83B and only accepted a very small amount.I believe the amount will find its way to the Stocks market.My guess it might first wait for next week's auction. if the rates are lower then it will find its way to the stock market from Monday 16th.. Dicey situation... possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi
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kasibitta wrote:whiteowl wrote:hisah wrote:whiteowl wrote:I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week. The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier. You're spot on with the charts but where will liquidity to support this mini rally come from? Or has the reverse repos cash hit your account? @whiteowl....if the 91 day Tbill, govt was given 83B and only accepted a very small amount.I believe the amount will find its way to the Stocks market.My guess A lot of the bids were at high rates so it does not mean the money is waiting to be invested in lower yielding assets. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,808 Location: NAIROBI
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NSE is charging;currently trading at ksh.27 per share. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@ hisah. Now that the interest rates and coming back down, now at 13%. Does it mean we that the bear is dead. I remember you told me to watch CB action The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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Over the last 3 days, bought me some 20k Britam at 15.43 net for short term which can go long term , wacha tuone!!! Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:@ hisah. Now that the interest rates and coming back down, now at 13%. Does it mean we that the bear is dead. I remember you told me to watch CB action The rates have come down too drastically. Just some pressure relief after gok has taken its fill for now. The gok debt bill for 2016 is huge. I doubt the current rate slide will be sustainable the whole of next year. Gok will be back in the market next year with a larger appetite!
For now NSE will bounce. It has to in order to reset the excessive overselling TA readings. The fight is now to reclaim 4000 handle, which I expect will reject the bounce if the rebound heads towards 4200 level. Plenty of sellers will return at that level as well as speculators will cash in the short term gains.
My focus is on the 2016 gok debt cocktail. By Q4 2016 we will know what next for mr market.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@ hisah. Now that the interest rates and coming back down, now at 13%. Does it mean we that the bear is dead. I remember you told me to watch CB action The rates have come down too drastically. Just some pressure relief after gok has taken its fill for now. The gok debt bill for 2016 is huge. I doubt the current rate slide will be sustainable the whole of next year. Gok will be back in the market next year with a larger appetite!
For now NSE will bounce. It has to in order to reset the excessive overselling TA readings. The fight is now to reclaim 4000 handle, which I expect will reject the bounce if the rebound heads towards 4200 level. Plenty of sellers will return at that level as well as speculators will cash in the short term gains.
My focus is on the 2016 gok debt cocktail. By Q4 2016 we will know what next for mr market.
Understood master chief The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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