mv_ufanisi wrote:My take is that it's hard to be emotionally objective about a company in the stock market. Hard to put feelings aside when a stock has just made you 100% or lost you 50%.
I think Centum is a good company that could be great if they deal with the executive compensation question by focusing on the long term bonus i.e. based on the 5 year strategy and outcomes and paying bonuses in shares not cash. It's also important for minority shareholders to verify that there are no related party transactions that benefit some significant shareholders.
For that 1 billion bonus that they were to pay, they should have gone to the market and bought 1 billion worth of shares and then given that to employees. That way they also provide demand for the company shares in the market which serves to stabilize the stock price and keep shareholders happy.
The upside of this stock is that they have so much opportunity to play with. They have money and execution capability to really ride the African growth wave.
The risks are that they overstretch themselves, run into cashflow problems or one of their mega projects goes horribly wrong.
I think the issue for most guys on this thread who are against the company is a very fundamental one i.e. the incentives scheme. Incentives play a key role in life and for me it seems that the board has incentivised the management to super-charge asset values given that their compensation is not linked to real cash returns but rather growth in NAV. Once this incentive system is in place, then even an angel would follow the same procedure as the current management. No one is saying they're corrupt or even stupid, just saying that they have been given the wrong incentives.
This is an issue I noted in 2009. Secondly, the financial footing of the firm has significantly changed, given the lack of sustainable cash flows flowing into the firm and their increasing leverage the company could become a debt trap as they will need more debt to re-finance old debt (two corp bonds of 10b total atm) and to finance new projects whose economics are questionable.