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Bitpesa Thread - Bitcoin Market Analysis by Mic Kimani
mic_mic
#1 Posted : Saturday, October 31, 2015 4:56:22 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/30/2012
Posts: 545
Location: NBI
Hi ALL



I have been conducting analysis on Bitcoin markets publicly since early 2014 on this thread http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&t=29849

I am starting a new thread for all of us to discuss bitcoin markets.

Over time, you will see my style.

Bitcoin is perhaps the greatest Investment opportunity of our Age! (Information Age).


Please keep the thread clean.

INFORMED Opinions are welcome.

So far, here is where we are


LONG TERM TREND









BITCOIN TRADERS KENYA Whatsapp group +254 705 299 429
mic_mic
#2 Posted : Saturday, October 31, 2015 10:20:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/30/2012
Posts: 545
Location: NBI
Bitcoin - Why It Now Belongs in Every Porfolio
by Tuur Demeester
October 26th, 2015

https://ybitcoin.com/art...tcoin-as-an-investment/


The value of bitcoins in circulation has been rising steadily. This can be explained mostly by the fact that it is a scarce commodity (maximum supply is 21 million) with rapidly growing utility. Here are a few possible scenarios for the future value of one bitcoin:



The scenarios projected above are, of course, not cast in stone. Bitcoin faces several risks going forward.
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mic_mic
#3 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2015 1:00:19 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/30/2012
Posts: 545
Location: NBI
This year has been about trying to break from the bear trend. See how market breaks each periodic EMA, heads back down and resurfaces with more force breaking higher.
This recent attempt could go higher, but we watch and see.

Failure to break above 200 AND hold, will send us to further lows.







I am watching to see if this pattern is a correction (A,B,C) similar to May/June 2014.

Where, the market is attempting to break away from downtrend.



Now waiting to see if this develops into a correction, before another leg up. OR if it will fail and head back to retest lows.



My current bias, its a correction, and there is more room to go higher.
BITCOIN TRADERS KENYA Whatsapp group +254 705 299 429
hisah
#4 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2015 10:55:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I expect this thread to gain fans gradually, but as the banking tension in KE starts gaining momentum more fans will show up. Mpesa has already set up the stage for easy adoption of bitcoin when the boom time comes. If KES is devalued due to the expected banking fallout, this will force mwananchi to start seeking alternatives.

Globally junk bond market crash will severely test the fragile confidence of the fiat monetary system. This is when bitcoin will start moving higher at a faster pace. The negative interest rate environment in europe has already set up the stage for that bond event, which will force capital flight into private hands away from public debt.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
whiteowl
#5 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2015 2:14:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
Next year I'll buy my first bitcoins.I plan to put in 5% of all my holdings and increase this to 30% by 2019.
Impunity
#6 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2015 3:49:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
You may find it wise to exoplain the Bitcoin in a @Wanjiko understandable language.
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

hisah
#7 Posted : Monday, November 02, 2015 6:31:10 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Impunity wrote:
You may find it wise to exoplain the Bitcoin in a @Wanjiko understandable language.

This thread about bitcoin has been running since last year >> http://wazua.co.ke/forum.aspx?g=posts&t=29849

Some more reference places.

https://www.weusecoins.com

https://forum.bitcoin.com

Start there then come here.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#8 Posted : Monday, November 02, 2015 6:44:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Chinese Exchanges Agree Bitcoin Price Has Nothing to Do With Capital Controls

Quote:
“Finance industry is developing rapidly in China during recent years, however, there still exists a distance in terms of trading mechanisms compared to the developed countries, which hindered the small and medium-sized investors from enjoying convenient services and trades,” he said.“Chinese banking industry is still charging high transaction fees despite the fact that we’re living in the Internet Age.”

Nonetheless, bitcoin is rising, and China is leading the pack. Whether this run will last for only a short while or this is the beginning of another bull run, no one is certain. But the energy within the community is certainly more positive, this run-up encouraging more people to talk about bitcoin.


@mic_mic I find Roger Ver insights to be very helpful >> https://rogerver.com

Also watch this documentary. Very interesting.



And this one too >> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vR8mJKd-qYo
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mic_mic
#9 Posted : Monday, November 02, 2015 9:29:42 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/30/2012
Posts: 545
Location: NBI
hisah wrote:
Chinese Exchanges Agree Bitcoin Price Has Nothing to Do With Capital Controls

Quote:
“Finance industry is developing rapidly in China during recent years, however, there still exists a distance in terms of trading mechanisms compared to the developed countries, which hindered the small and medium-sized investors from enjoying convenient services and trades,” he said.“Chinese banking industry is still charging high transaction fees despite the fact that we’re living in the Internet Age.”

Nonetheless, bitcoin is rising, and China is leading the pack. Whether this run will last for only a short while or this is the beginning of another bull run, no one is certain. But the energy within the community is certainly more positive, this run-up encouraging more people to talk about bitcoin.


@mic_mic I find Roger Ver insights to be very helpful >> https://rogerver.com

Also watch this documentary. Very interesting.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zKuoqZLyKg

And this one too >> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vR8mJKd-qYo



Yes! China has been leading the market. $ 1 billion in 24 hours in volumes. But Chinese exchange charge 0 fees, so lots of bots huko and in and out trades.

Myself, I like

Jon matonis and Tuur Demeester

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mic_mic
#10 Posted : Monday, November 02, 2015 9:38:23 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/30/2012
Posts: 545
Location: NBI
whiteowl wrote:
Next year I'll buy my first bitcoins.I plan to put in 5% of all my holdings and increase this to 30% by 2019.


Wise choice.

Bitcoin belongs in every portfolio. Not sure about 2019, external events could change rapidly and change economic outlook.
Like Chief Hisah says, global outlook doesn't look great. i can't believe negative interest rates is a normal thing now.

I myself, am accumulating. building up a long position. I expect at least to retest $ 1200 highs at some point. And, in poor global Macro eg Central bank, Europe, US, China,
$3,000.

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mic_mic
#11 Posted : Monday, November 02, 2015 9:40:25 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/30/2012
Posts: 545
Location: NBI
Impunity wrote:
You may find it wise to exoplain the Bitcoin in a @Wanjiko understandable language.


Good idea!

perhaps 'A Bitcoin Guide for Wanjiku'
BITCOIN TRADERS KENYA Whatsapp group +254 705 299 429
mic_mic
#12 Posted : Monday, November 02, 2015 9:50:20 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/30/2012
Posts: 545
Location: NBI
U.S. Marshals Will Hold the Final Auction of the Silk Road Bitcoin This Week

https://bitcoinmagazine....in-this-week-1446484116

Over the past year, the U.S. Marshals Service (USMS ) has auctioned off a large part of the bitcoin that had been confiscated as a result of the Silk Road investigation. The USMS will hold the final auction for 44,341 bitcoin seized as a result of the criminal conviction and civil forfeiture against Ross Ulbricht. At today’s market price, the bitcoin are worth about $15 million.

During the course of the investigation, the USMS seized more than 144,000 BTC from Ross Ulbricht, the creator of the Silk Road marketplace. At the moment of seizure, the bitcoin were worth about $122 million. In addition to these funds, the USMS also confiscated a total of 29,000 BTC from various Silk Road-related wallets.
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mic_mic
#13 Posted : Monday, November 02, 2015 10:13:06 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/30/2012
Posts: 545
Location: NBI
mic_mic wrote:
T



My current bias, its a correction, and there is more room to go higher.



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Angelica _ann
#14 Posted : Monday, November 02, 2015 10:40:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,908
Shiko is totally lost Sad
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
whiteowl
#15 Posted : Tuesday, November 03, 2015 12:20:56 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
mic_mic wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Next year I'll buy my first bitcoins.I plan to put in 5% of all my holdings and increase this to 30% by 2019.


Wise choice.

Bitcoin belongs in every portfolio. Not sure about 2019, external events could change rapidly and change economic outlook.
Like Chief Hisah says, global outlook doesn't look great. i can't believe negative interest rates is a normal thing now.

I myself, am accumulating. building up a long position. I expect at least to retest $ 1200 highs at some point. And, in poor global Macro eg Central bank, Europe, US, China,
$3,000.



Apart from liking the advantages bitcoins brings to the technology world, I think Kenya will have its Greek/Ghana moment in the near future and alternative currencies can help one to navigate such turbulent times. I'm also bullish on the long term value of bitcoins.
whiteowl
#16 Posted : Tuesday, November 03, 2015 12:59:53 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
Angelica _ann wrote:
Shiko is totally lost Sad


Let me try to explain using stuff you already know. I hope it helps you understand the general concept of bitcoins.
So,I'm a super computer hacker and I create a digital currency called bitcoins. Its the size of 100MBs. It cannot be increased in size beyond 100MBs whatsoever. However it can be broken down into smaller bits like 20MB,5MB,2MB and so on.The value of bitcoins like any commodity in a market is determined by demand and supply. One can buy smaller units depending on the money they have and the current exchange rate.My bitcoins are also easily transferable amongst phones and computers upon purchase. People can meet in person to exchange bitcoins upon purchase but this turns out to be risky and tedious so bitcoins exchange start coming up just like we have the stock market. Since. my bitcoins aren't u issued by any central bank it means they can act as a defacto global currency and that obviously doesn't make central bankers happy coz it overrides their authority. Also storing bitcoins on phones and computers can be risky because when your device is destroyed so are bitcoins. The solution is a digital safebox offered by some companies. You buy lets say 3MB of my bitcoins and lock them in a safe.Later you can decide to unlock the safe and sell 1.2MB of bitcoins and make a purchase with 0.5 bitcoins and keep the rest locked in the safe.
Well,I hope that gives you a general idea.
Ash Ock
#17 Posted : Tuesday, November 03, 2015 7:52:49 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/27/2010
Posts: 495
Location: Nairobi
mic_mic wrote:
My current bias, its a correction, and there is more room to go higher.


Have you by any chance been following the MMM Bitcoin ponzi (http://mmmglobal.org/) and the speculation that it might, in part, be responsible for the current surge?

It's gained a lot of interest, even upcountry here in .ke.



What I suspect is when it crashes, as all ponzi tend to do, it'll leave a bad taste for Bitcoins across the country.
Sent from my Black Nokia 3310
mic_mic
#18 Posted : Tuesday, November 03, 2015 7:56:59 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/30/2012
Posts: 545
Location: NBI
mic_mic wrote:
mic_mic wrote:
T



My current bias, its a correction, and there is more room to go higher.





Yesterday night was exciting. Market went up to $ 380


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mic_mic
#19 Posted : Tuesday, November 03, 2015 8:07:07 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/30/2012
Posts: 545
Location: NBI
Ash Ock wrote:
mic_mic wrote:
My current bias, its a correction, and there is more room to go higher.


Have you by any chance been following the MMM Bitcoin ponzi (http://mmmglobal.org/) and the speculation that it might, in part, be responsible for the current surge?



Yes, in China - i have been following. I do not feel it is the reason for this run up. I've been watching the market for a while, and this move up was a build up since early September. It is a coincidence and (MMM) is taking advantage of it to lure in more people.

There is alot of speculation inChina w/ talk of capital control and now loosening capital controls. That has fueled this move up from low 200s to $ 380. Plus, a lot of good news about Bitcoin these past 2 weeks - EU Vat tax free, talk of Blockchain and the cover on economist.
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mic_mic
#20 Posted : Tuesday, November 03, 2015 8:09:53 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/30/2012
Posts: 545
Location: NBI
Ash Ock wrote:
mic_mic wrote:
My current bias, its a correction, and there is more room to go higher.


Have you by any chance been following the MMM Bitcoin ponzi (http://mmmglobal.org/) and the speculation that it might, in part, be responsible for the current surge?

It's gained a lot of interest, even upcountry here in .ke.



What I suspect is when it crashes, as all ponzi tend to do, it'll leave a bad taste for Bitcoins across the country.


I'm playing my part in warning people to be aware and stay away from MMM. These are the kind of people who tarnish bitcoin and confuse the masses.

Bitcoin is not bad, it is people who are bad
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