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EQUITY vs KCB
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#241 Posted : Saturday, October 31, 2015 8:20:52 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
The anti banking pressure will keep the lenders on theirs toes to reflect the true financial positions. Otherwise financials stocks wanna be overpriced by reducing provision for bad debts immensely thereby ballooning EPS . This overcast of EPS will trigger upthrust coz demand will surpass the supply. IMF once warned banks on this scenario of cooking books.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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VituVingiSana
#242 Posted : Saturday, October 31, 2015 9:13:19 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
With the current appreciation trend of KCB share price;pension schemes including NSSF will make very handsome returns in their portfolio.
KCB is the favourite stock and with the largest percentage in the quoted equity portfolio as per RBA June 2014 report

Any fund manager with a large financial sector exposure in their portfolio is likely in the red this year.

For now I'm not willing to touch or recommend any banking stock until treasury and cbk start reading from the same page. The interest rate lawsuit is another key event. Is judiciary becoming banker intolerant like what happened in the 1930s to US banks? Social mood is currently cranking anti bank sentiments. Caution is this environment for some banks will be thrown under the bus. The next stage will likely be KES devaluation as anti bank sentiment swiftly moves to politics. Bond holders will hate this cycle as losses escalate especially if politicians force through lending rate control laws. Sell buy-back bond market activity will be nasty for those with bad exposure.

This environment is not similar to 2011 and the new cbk head will want to drive a point home to rogue bankers.

In summary banks are facing a tough cbk head, intolerant judiciary and anti bank civil mood. Very nasty cocktail. Keep this in mind while you analyze banking stocks.

Very good points.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Ericsson
#243 Posted : Saturday, October 31, 2015 11:11:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
This IMF that is warning banks about cooking books is it the same one that encourages nations to cook their GDP figures and state of the economy they take more loans and result is financial crisis,bankruptcy,painful austerity measures like pension cuts.
Case in point Ukraine,Greece,Argentina in the early 2000,Mexico,Indonesia during the Asian financial crisis in 1997.
Now even Kenya
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obiero
#244 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2015 6:45:25 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
This IMF that is warning banks about cooking books is it the same one that encourages nations to cook their GDP figures and state of the economy they take more loans and result is financial crisis,bankruptcy,painful austerity measures like pension cuts.
Case in point Ukraine,Greece,Argentina in the early 2000,Mexico,Indonesia during the Asian financial crisis in 1997.
Now even Kenya

The key word you have used is enocourage. We are never forced by IMF.. Meanwhile, I was at the exchange bar yesterday and word is that the Opus Dei man is incorruptible.. Even big bribes dont shake his faith.. A stickler for rules. Fishy banks wont swim in this new CBK waters, but Imperial will reopen on 16.11.2015

KQ ABP 4.26
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hisah
#245 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2015 8:03:40 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
With the current appreciation trend of KCB share price;pension schemes including NSSF will make very handsome returns in their portfolio.
KCB is the favourite stock and with the largest percentage in the quoted equity portfolio as per RBA June 2014 report

Any fund manager with a large financial sector exposure in their portfolio is likely in the red this year.

For now I'm not willing to touch or recommend any banking stock until treasury and cbk start reading from the same page. The interest rate lawsuit is another key event. Is judiciary becoming banker intolerant like what happened in the 1930s to US banks? Social mood is currently cranking anti bank sentiments. Caution is this environment for some banks will be thrown under the bus. The next stage will likely be KES devaluation as anti bank sentiment swiftly moves to politics. Bond holders will hate this cycle as losses escalate especially if politicians force through lending rate control laws. Sell buy-back bond market activity will be nasty for those with bad exposure.

This environment is not similar to 2011 and the new cbk head will want to drive a point home to rogue bankers.

In summary banks are facing a tough cbk head, intolerant judiciary and anti bank civil mood. Very nasty cocktail. Keep this in mind while you analyze banking stocks.

Very good points.

Well, that didn't take long. This anti bank social mood is bound to get muscular as political fever escalates towards election.

Midiwo to push Bill to put limit on interest rates

@obiero good to know that exchange bar patrons are worried about the new cbk head. Rogue bankers' time is up! Banker suicides coming up. @young had stated a while back before leaving investing at NSE that kenyan banks faced the nigerian 2009 bank clean up event. I think we're just warming up. 2016 is when the chips start falling into place.

@ericsson imf & wb modus operandi is debt enslavement of nations since the 70s.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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enyands
#246 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2015 10:32:52 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,301
Location: kenya
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
This IMF that is warning banks about cooking books is it the same one that encourages nations to cook their GDP figures and state of the economy they take more loans and result is financial crisis,bankruptcy,painful austerity measures like pension cuts.
Case in point Ukraine,Greece,Argentina in the early 2000,Mexico,Indonesia during the Asian financial crisis in 1997.
Now even Kenya

The key word you have used is enocourage. We are never forced by IMF.. Meanwhile, I was at the exchange bar yesterday and word is that the Opus Dei man is incorruptible.. Even big bribes dont shake his faith.. A stickler for rules. Fishy banks wont swim in this new CBK waters, but Imperial will reopen on 16.11.2015


And some dude was asking him why he isn't married. From the word go I said I like this guy.we need such leaders .let nothing pass under his watch .
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watesh
#247 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2015 12:17:07 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 992
Location: Kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
@watesh - Why did Equity's costs increase vs KCB? Equitel?

Equity had a huge IT cost to upgrade banking systems and integrate Equitel around 2.6bn then also expect Equitel marketing costs of arnd 2bn
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watesh
#248 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2015 12:26:48 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 992
Location: Kenya
watesh wrote:
Here are some stats I did on KCB Q3 vs Equity Q3 for stats junkies like me
Pretax profit
KCB-19.4bn
Equity-18.1bn

PAT
KCB-13.577bn
Equity-12.81bn

BREAKDOWN:
Assets
KCB-607bn
Equity-446bn

Deposits
KCB-471bn(+121bn)
Equity-317bn(+73bn)

Net Loans and advances
KCB-348bn(+84bn)
Equity-263(+55bn)

Net Interest Income
KCB-28.35bn(+2.57bn)
Equity-26.81bn(+4bn)

Non funded income
KCB-17.334bn(+0.4bn)
Equity-16.81(+3.7bn)

Costs
KCB-26.297bn(+1.25bn)
Equity-24.18bn(+5.289bn)

Subsidiaries (KCB are estimates)
Kenya
KCB-17.07bn
Equity-15.9bn

Uganda
KCB-0.19bn
Equity-0.21bn

Tanzania
KCB-0.19bn
Equity-0.27bn

Rwanda
KCB-0.388bn
Equity-0.32bn

South Sudan
KCB-1.6bn
Equity-0.7bn

DRC Equity-0.44bn
Burundi KCB less than or approx 0.01bn


Made a change on a typing error i did on Equity net interest income
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watesh
#249 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2015 12:36:02 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 992
Location: Kenya
hisah wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
With the current appreciation trend of KCB share price;pension schemes including NSSF will make very handsome returns in their portfolio.
KCB is the favourite stock and with the largest percentage in the quoted equity portfolio as per RBA June 2014 report

Any fund manager with a large financial sector exposure in their portfolio is likely in the red this year.

For now I'm not willing to touch or recommend any banking stock until treasury and cbk start reading from the same page. The interest rate lawsuit is another key event. Is judiciary becoming banker intolerant like what happened in the 1930s to US banks? Social mood is currently cranking anti bank sentiments. Caution is this environment for some banks will be thrown under the bus. The next stage will likely be KES devaluation as anti bank sentiment swiftly moves to politics. Bond holders will hate this cycle as losses escalate especially if politicians force through lending rate control laws. Sell buy-back bond market activity will be nasty for those with bad exposure.

This environment is not similar to 2011 and the new cbk head will want to drive a point home to rogue bankers.

In summary banks are facing a tough cbk head, intolerant judiciary and anti bank civil mood. Very nasty cocktail. Keep this in mind while you analyze banking stocks.

Very good points.

Well, that didn't take long. This anti bank social mood is bound to get muscular as political fever escalates towards election.

Midiwo to push Bill to put limit on interest rates

@obiero good to know that exchange bar patrons are worried about the new cbk head. Rogue bankers' time is up! Banker suicides coming up. @young had stated a while back before leaving investing at NSE that kenyan banks faced the nigerian 2009 bank clean up event. I think we're just warming up. 2016 is when the chips start falling into place.

@ericsson imf & wb modus operandi is debt enslavement of nations since the 70s.

If an interest rate control bill goes through, pple will be back to begging for loans instead of banks begging pple to take loans
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MaichBlack
#250 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2015 4:00:03 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,836
watesh wrote:

If an interest rate control bill goes through, pple will be back to begging for loans instead of banks begging pple to take loans

That is why I keep saying the level of idiocy in this country is mind boggling!!! With all the risks and costs associated with lending to individuals, why would a bank want to lend to individuals at such low margins??? All the money/loans would end up going to the government and companies (the bigger the better). Companies would no longer need to source foreign loans. It would be the raiya trying to do that! Good luck with that!!!

And we are trying to make Nairobi a Financial Hub???
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, November 01, 2015 4:01 PM | Reason: Not specified
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