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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Othelo
#1111 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2015 11:30:45 AM
Rank: User

Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
whiteowl wrote:
Gatheuzi wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
The gap in revenues collected http://www.businessdaily.../-/1595jc9/-/index.html as it is the revenue collection target was well short of budget. Now this shortfall of 28B can be added to the deficit. Things are not good.


For the quarter, so if they experience that through out the fiscal year, the deficit will be bigger. He was also talking like there is no hope on bridging the gap.



Those profits warnings had to show up in lower revenues sooner than later.

Since the government has a higher appetite to spend and wants to keep borrowing, they can forget meeting those ambitious targets they have been putting for Njiraini.

Do we need to pay McKinsey to tell us we lose revenues via collusion with KRA officials?

KRA wrote:
The Treasury has hired international consultants, Mckinsey, to help it seal loopholes in tax administration it believes are denying the Exchequer billions of shillings every month.


KRA isn't the problem here. How about the government sealing loopholes that cost tax payers over 300B/year before demanding KRA to collect more money.

Jubilee saw Kibaki gava increase tax collection by expanding the economy and thought that it is an easy task and is the norm. shock on them. You must develop and grow the economy to generate revenue!!!
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
mlennyma
#1112 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2015 11:48:37 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Othelo wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Gatheuzi wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
The gap in revenues collected http://www.businessdaily.../-/1595jc9/-/index.html as it is the revenue collection target was well short of budget. Now this shortfall of 28B can be added to the deficit. Things are not good.


For the quarter, so if they experience that through out the fiscal year, the deficit will be bigger. He was also talking like there is no hope on bridging the gap.



Those profits warnings had to show up in lower revenues sooner than later.

Since the government has a higher appetite to spend and wants to keep borrowing, they can forget meeting those ambitious targets they have been putting for Njiraini.

Do we need to pay McKinsey to tell us we lose revenues via collusion with KRA officials?

KRA wrote:
The Treasury has hired international consultants, Mckinsey, to help it seal loopholes in tax administration it believes are denying the Exchequer billions of shillings every month.


KRA isn't the problem here. How about the government sealing loopholes that cost tax payers over 300B/year before demanding KRA to collect more money.

Jubilee saw Kibaki gava increase tax collection by expanding the economy and thought that it is an easy task and is the norm. shock on them. You must develop and grow the economy to generate revenue!!!

if Duale is one economist what do u expect?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
hisah
#1113 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2015 5:00:22 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NSE20 closes for the month of October at 3868. 6.86% down from the open at 4153. In October NSE20 bulls were overpowered by bearish momentum and lost the 4000 psychological handle. That was one nasty support break. The market is quite oversold and a bounce is likely in November. However overheads resistance is now packed from 4000 all the way to 4500. For bulls to reclaim their pod 4900 - 5000 resistance level has to be broken down with a bang.

Their is likelihood to test the 2011 lows. I'd prefer this scenario since the bounce from that level will have more legs for a proper layering of a floor to force a double bottom.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
littledove
#1114 Posted : Saturday, October 31, 2015 9:40:03 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Kenya-among-top-10-states-exposed-portfolio-flows-risks--IMF/-/539552/2935106/-/item/0/-/11njms9z/-/index.html
seems the worst is yet to come

"..The IMF warns that the portfolio flows come at the cost of sudden outflows, such as is expected when interest rates in the US rise in coming weeks. .."
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
littledove
#1115 Posted : Saturday, October 31, 2015 9:50:38 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
littledove wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Kenya-among-top-10-states-exposed-portfolio-flows-risks--IMF/-/539552/2935106/-/item/0/-/11njms9z/-/index.html
seems the worst is yet to come

"..The IMF warns that the portfolio flows come at the cost of sudden outflows, such as is expected when interest rates in the US rise in coming weeks. .."


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/29/us-usa-fed-idUSKCN0SM0BJ20151029

"..nvestors quickly placed bets reflecting a higher chance the U.S. central bank will raise rates in December, with futures contracts implying a 43 percent possibility compared to 34 percent prior to the statement.

"The Fed is seriously considering a December rate hike," said Harm Bandholz, an economist at UniCredit in New York..."
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
Spikes
#1116 Posted : Saturday, October 31, 2015 11:41:56 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
The only window left this year for speculators is November bulls. CBK and Treasury are preparing the market for soft landing following monetary easing set to bring interest rates down. Kenyan Monetary and Fiscal policy makers are realigning economic tools to counter Fed rate hike most likely December. Of course Fed action will set off a financial earthquake a cross emerging markets melting down weak currencies triggering new normal inflation. After short bulls the NSE will be left dangling in capital flight panic if US dollar gets support from Fed rate hike.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
VituVingiSana
#1117 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2015 12:41:28 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
The Fed's hike of 0.25% is a known known. It's about when not if. A 0.25% hike isn't devastating. In Kenya, we hike by 2% like it's nothing! We moved from 9% to 22% in months for 91 day T-Bills.

Very few will move their 'hot money' from Kenya to the US for a 0.25% increase in USD rates. The countries that will see a movement of significant funds are those with low rates e.g. Japan, UK, EU, etc...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Liv
#1118 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2015 1:56:17 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
VituVingiSana wrote:
The Fed's hike of 0.25% is a known known. It's about when not if. A 0.25% hike isn't devastating. In Kenya, we hike by 2% like it's nothing! We moved from 9% to 22% in months for 91 day T-Bills.

Very few will move their 'hot money' from Kenya to the US for a 0.25% increase in USD rates. The countries that will see a movement of significant funds are those with low rates e.g. Japan, UK, EU, etc...



And what do you think will happen to the Kshs and inflation with an increased worldwide demand for the US dollar?
mugo2of3
#1119 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2015 2:54:29 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 5/22/2014
Posts: 78
VituVingiSana wrote:
The Fed's hike of 0.25% is a known known. It's about when not if. A 0.25% hike isn't devastating. In Kenya, we hike by 2% like it's nothing! We moved from 9% to 22% in months for 91 day T-Bills.

Very few will move their 'hot money' from Kenya to the US for a 0.25% increase in USD rates. The countries that will see a movement of significant funds are those with low rates e.g. Japan, UK, EU, etc...


@vvs, I am not an economist but I think that you have over-simplified the effect of federal rates rise.

Fed rate is the equivalent of our CBK rate, banks and other lending institutions can raise rates further based on this and other factors. (Though not in the haphazard way that our banks have done of late; read StanChart and Co.)

The near-zero Fed rates were introduced to counter the ravages of the GFC. The consensus is that Dollar investors have had lots of easy cash over the last few years.
This is the money that they would typically invest in high return ventures like KE NSE and Gov't securities.

The fear is the knock-on effect this would have both mathematically and mood-wise.
I'm thinking of less cash to put in our already ailing NSE.

My two cents...
hisah
#1120 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2015 4:02:14 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
VituVingiSana wrote:
The Fed's hike of 0.25% is a known known. It's about when not if. A 0.25% hike isn't devastating. In Kenya, we hike by 2% like it's nothing! We moved from 9% to 22% in months for 91 day T-Bills.

Very few will move their 'hot money' from Kenya to the US for a 0.25% increase in USD rates. The countries that will see a movement of significant funds are those with low rates e.g. Japan, UK, EU, etc...

Fed rate hike will blow the junk bond market fuse. Liquidity will disappear swiftly in the process. This is the bidless event I expect in 2016. Nobody will be willing to touch long end paper thus forcing short end yields to spike. In a liquidity vacuum all markets will likely deflate. But my view is since the cycle end will be a bond bubble burst, equities will benefit after the sizable panic selloff. Bond portfolio baskets will blow up for good paying cts on the dollar for those few lucky ones that don't get vapourized!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
372 Pages«<110111112113114>»
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