VituVingiSana wrote:The Fed's hike of 0.25% is a known known. It's about when not if. A 0.25% hike isn't devastating. In Kenya, we hike by 2% like it's nothing! We moved from 9% to 22% in months for 91 day T-Bills.
Very few will move their 'hot money' from Kenya to the US for a 0.25% increase in USD rates. The countries that will see a movement of significant funds are those with low rates e.g. Japan, UK, EU, etc...
@vvs, I am not an economist but I think that you have over-simplified the effect of federal rates rise.
Fed rate is the equivalent of our CBK rate, banks and other lending institutions can raise rates further based on this and other factors. (Though not in the haphazard way that our banks have done of late; read StanChart and Co.)
The near-zero Fed rates were introduced to counter the ravages of the GFC. The consensus is that Dollar investors have had lots of easy cash over the last few years.
This is the money that they would typically invest in high return ventures like KE NSE and Gov't securities.
The fear is the knock-on effect this would have both mathematically and mood-wise.
I'm thinking of less cash to put in our already ailing NSE.
My two cents...