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MSC....!!
Njunge
#21 Posted : Wednesday, May 13, 2009 8:45:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Kaigangio,

You started well and finished off miserably.Power goes to grid for consumption.That makes it two goats for being silly....

@Obi,

Well answered.

@General,

Nzoia would have been an ideal acquistion but it has a debt in excess of 26 B....

@Mukiha,

Power plant initial capital is a mere 2.2B.In my view the 120M from credit carbon is more than the plant can take in maintenance cost. annually.


God gives,mugikuyu takes.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Kaigangio
#22 Posted : Wednesday, May 13, 2009 9:03:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/27/2007
Posts: 2,768


@ kanobi,

I believe my calculations are consistent with the normal power generation computation procedures. The only difference is that I have annualised the figures for comaparison purposes.

@ guka

I did not mention anywhere something to the effect that this power is being stored. i will forgive you for believing that it is 'MW' that go to the Transmission Lines and not the current flowing into the conductors in the transmission line under a distinct voltage and power factor......kubafu bure.

hakuna goat!!



NEVER TALK OF A RHINO IF THERE IS NO TREE NEAREBY - ZULU PROVERB
...besides, the presence of a safe alone does not signify that there is money inside...
mukiha
#23 Posted : Wednesday, May 13, 2009 9:14:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
@Kaigangio;

Pole Ndugu....they have really blasted you....but I won't:

Your figures are all correct but they are based on one major false assumption: That ALL the crushed cane is burnt to generate steam. That's not the case...most of it is just 'thrown away' because the boilers don't need it.

Your calculation is therefore the POTENTIAL power output.

@Njung'e:

The US$35m loan at 2.25%pa over ten years gives around sh300m in re-payments per year....so my guesstimate of about sh500m in 'operating' costs was just about right......but now you deduct the sh120m for carbon credits...and my point is enhanced....

....sasa huyu broker wangu yuko wapi?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
The General
#24 Posted : Wednesday, May 13, 2009 9:28:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/3/2006
Posts: 553
@Njunge,any chance someone will feel 'sufficiently philanthropic'


The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
Njunge
#25 Posted : Wednesday, May 13, 2009 9:29:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Kaigangio,

1 Ton= 100Kwh

350 Tonnes = 350Tonnes X100 Kwh = 35,000 Kw every hour = 35MW every hour.....

Daily = 24 X 35 =576 Mw daily

Annually = 576Mw x 300 working days =172,800 Mw =172.8 GW....

@Mukiha,

FYI.....No bagasse goes to waste.In an ideal Cogen plant,excess bagasse is stored for a rainny day (Contingent).This helps the plant attain the requited Power plant time efficiency of (PPTE) which would dratically come down if every time the mills stop,the power planrt stops too.

@General,

Hmmmmm......26 B is a huge amount.Unless the gova is willing to write it off.



God gives,mugikuyu takes.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Obi 1 Kanobi
#26 Posted : Wednesday, May 13, 2009 9:57:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
@Kaigangio

The production of electricity is not annualised,its measured in constant flow.

Hence in this case we say Mumias can supply 35MW per annum. (Thats what I meant by you cant store it)

Using your example,a nuclear power plant may give 1,000MW per hour in constant flow thoughout the year,

hence the output will be 1000x24x365 = 8,760,000 MW,now compare that to MsC

I hope that is now helpful.



I guess if you can't win with facts,you can always pen bile-laced,xenophobic rants to distract everyone.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
Tutu
#27 Posted : Wednesday, May 13, 2009 10:02:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/12/2008
Posts: 74
@virji and Mukiha i am boarding this bus with you. I can see the demand is far much higher than the supply today,praying that this pushes the price northwards. Boarded it when it was 12.50,and i now have a good reason to average them.

Ama m i celebrating too early?


Jesus Loves me this I know,for the bible tells me so!
The General
#28 Posted : Wednesday, May 13, 2009 10:15:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/3/2006
Posts: 553
@Njunge,crossing my fingers,toes,etc.

Whats exciting is the changaa..

The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
Kaigangio
#29 Posted : Wednesday, May 13, 2009 10:31:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/27/2007
Posts: 2,768
@ kanobi,

from the basics,power is the amount of work done (in joules) in a given period of time. the amount of work done in a system can be summed up to whichever period of time that one desires. if you divide this work done by the amount of time (seconds) under consideration then you will have your average power.

in power generation stations,please note that as long as the water is 'doing work' turning those hydro turbines,or the steam is doing work turning those steam turbines etc,whether the electrical energy is being used by the end user or not,power is still being produced at the station


NEVER TALK OF A RHINO IF THERE IS NO TREE NEAREBY - ZULU PROVERB
...besides, the presence of a safe alone does not signify that there is money inside...
Eddiemundu
#30 Posted : Wednesday, May 13, 2009 10:35:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/23/2007
Posts: 67
@ALL

Why I am pessimistic about MSC Turnaround Strategy.

Carbon Credits

Carbon Credits are Basically HOBBIES and part of 'The Green' Initiative that is in Vogue in The Global Corporate Circles. In Monetary Terms,Revenue earned from sale of Carbon Credits are Immaterial and their Contribution to the ProfitDownline is a Mere Token.

Power Generation

This is still on PILOT Phase and Returns are Not worth any Celebration..25 Mw is Peanut in Industrial Terms..and so are the profits from that area.There is no Guarantee of Selling all the Power Generated and Kengen is also intending to Produce more and KPLC would 1st Exhaust Kengen's Power b4 going to other Power Producers coz of the SISTERLY Relationship.

Price Per Ton

MSC has commited to increase the Price of 1ton of Raw Sugar from ksh.2,500 to kshs.2,560. That means they are going to incur ALOT in the Cost of Raw materials which will not be easily transfferable to the Consumer espeacially when many Kenyans can Take 'NDUBIA' (Sugar-Free) Tea.

Shifta/ Pastoralist in TANA Delta

Tana Sugar Project remains a Pipe-Dream as Locals borrow a leaf from Kibera and Start Uprooting Cane.

Point is,the Factors that Erode Revenues OUTWEIGH the Gains.



M'c Kende Siafu !
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