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KENOLKOBIL snaps up BP assets in 5 countries
Horton
#1 Posted : Monday, March 15, 2010 6:45:21 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
http://www.businessdaily...10/-/hdrqq/-/index.html


headline in bdafrica should read "expresses interest" as a deal hasnt been concluded yet..

I think this is a great company to invest in because:

1. Of the above, growing market share constantly
2. Relatively cheap EPS was about 8.37bob last year(15 months)
3. Expected results should be good after the notice they came out with basically over-riding the previously issued profit warning for 1H
4. They should be recipients of Kshs 4.6B from KPC in damages, which amounts to 4 year PAT for the company, i understand from someone close to the matter that the KPC appeal doesnt hold any water. Even, if they pay Kshs1B per year, that basically doubles PAT without a blink of an eye.
5. Efficiency at KPC after the lawsuit and arbitration should amount to more efficient services from KPC and hence better margins.

However,
1.They have crappy Net margins, which is industry wide, but that should improve with better KPC services, better refinery processes as we only get 54% white fuel from crude as opposed to 86% in western nations due to refinery processes.
2.Finance costs, they should have these contained with the excess cash they receive from operating activities & KPC cash.
VituVingiSana
#2 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 1:59:58 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
BDA are pathetic... KK may be interested in BP assets BUT not bought them!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sheep
#3 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 7:25:14 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
IMHO,If they cant do good business in kenya,what makes them think other countries are better? I think this company is headed the Olympia capital way,the management is obsessed with acquisitions.Lets see what it will do to their cash flow.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
Horton
#4 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 7:36:38 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
well they are doing well in Kenya, depends on what is your definition.

They have consistently made large profits no losses save from last half....only thing is like other gas and oil companies(XOM & CVX however, KK is a downstream company), their net margins kinda suck. Having said that, the BV is 65 which gives u a PB of 1.08, trailing PE of 10, forward should be less.

Besides margins outside good ol KE are much higher...

The only thing that is not going for them is their Net margins, otherwise, everything from Price valuations to LT growth looks positive.

I guess its one of those things....
Fundaah
#5 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 7:48:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/19/2008
Posts: 1,267
Even after the good news Kenol is not among the top gainers today.....
why?

UNGA 11.95 +9.63
WTK 229.00 +9.57
KAKUZI 95.50 +8.52
EXPRES 11.50 +5.02
SAMEER 9.50 +3.83
Isaiah 65:17-Look! I am creating new heavens and a new earth, and no one will even think about the old ones anymore
Horton
#6 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 7:57:47 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
@Fundaah....probably "herd" mentality...they will jump into it when its already too late and the thing has crossed the 100 bob mark
VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 1:31:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@horton is right on the money!!!

BUT most downstream firms including Total got hit with the huge variation in crude prices...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Horton
#8 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 9:38:16 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
Quite intersting, biggest company in Turnover in Kenya,(safe to say in east africa too??) is KENKOB surpassing SAFCOM, EABL et al. Turnover was just shy of $2B last year (15months)...I expect turnover this year to be about the same but higher NM....
cnn
#9 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 9:42:24 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
@horton,shh! Just do the necessary.
VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 10:22:28 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@cnn @horton BUT... harder to translate turnover into PAT in this industry...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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