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MSC....!!
Njunge
#1 Posted : Tuesday, May 12, 2009 7:34:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
The power plant is a reality now and the dollars started rolling in yesterday.........Focus now shifts to power alcohol.Thumbs up for Evans.

God gives,mugikuyu takes.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Obi 1 Kanobi
#2 Posted : Tuesday, May 12, 2009 8:21:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
More details Njung'e.

With Brazil in mind,I have always thought our Sugar sector is not operating to its potential,does electricity and power alcohol substitute sugar or are the 3 products co-generated.

Whats the optimal production mix.


I guess if you can't win with facts,you can always pen bile-laced,xenophobic rants to distract everyone.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
Njunge
#3 Posted : Tuesday, May 12, 2009 11:26:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Obi,

Sorry for not responding on time..............All the 3 products are cogenerated.Briefly,in a cane factory,optimal production mix for every 1 tonne of sugar cane should give you 100 kg of sugar,100 to150 units of power (KWh) and 10 litres of power alcohol (ethanol).Of the 100-150 power units produced,15% is usually reserved for consumption by the factory and the rest exported to grid..........Money is in both power and ethanol since the initial capital for this plants is small and the plants themselves have minimal maintenance cost......MSC crushes 350 tonnes of cane per hour which accounts for 70% of the kenyan sugar industry capacity per hour.


God gives,mugikuyu takes.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Hi-Lo
#4 Posted : Tuesday, May 12, 2009 1:54:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/5/2007
Posts: 91
...even their website popped up yesterday as well...

Hey...Somebody might make a killing out of me...?!
Eddiemundu
#5 Posted : Tuesday, May 12, 2009 2:13:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/23/2007
Posts: 67
@ Njung'e

Mumias are Simply passionate about this Idea but its Contribution to their Revenue Downline is Currently Inconsiquential...at that pace give them 10 more years to realize any Material Profit.. hoping that by that time they wont have gone Belly-Up!

Sample This;

You say these pple Churn 350 Tones of Cane per Hr..so if 1Ton of Cane makes 1Ltr of Chang'aa,it means thery produce 3500 Litres (350 * 10 ) of Alcohol per Hr and so in 24 hrs (assumming 24hrs No-Stop Operation),it means 24hrs*3500ltrs=84,000 ltrs perday & Night. So,monthly production is 84,000ltrs * 30days=2,520,000 litrs per month.Revenue Per month is 2,520,000Ltrs *40 bob/Ltr (assumed)=shs,100,800,000

Annual Revenue (assuming shutdown 3months) 100,800,000*9months=907,000,000shs in Revenue.

Once the above is Taxed at 30% (900m-270m=670m ) EPS contribution is less than .40 cts

So the big Question is,is this Urgument Holding any water??

and is so,do you think this ADDED Profit gives yu the courage to buy Mumias


M'c Kende Siafu !
Obi 1 Kanobi
#6 Posted : Tuesday, May 12, 2009 2:42:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
@Eddiemundu.

What was the after tax profit for MSC,i bet it was not Sh.6.4B,this means the added revenue from the power alcohol can increase the companies profitability by way over 10% and thats important.

Secondly what was MSC's net cashflow,what do you think would be the impact of all that additional cashflow on MSC's results. How would it impact MSC's ability to service debt,assuming a simple interest of 10%,MSC can borrow an additional Sh.6B for expansion.

What about dividends per share,if MSC decided to pay the cash fom Power alcohol to its shareholders,at the current shareprice of sh.4 this would be a payout of 15% per share.


I guess if you can't win with facts,you can always pen bile-laced,xenophobic rants to distract everyone.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
Wendz
#7 Posted : Tuesday, May 12, 2009 3:18:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/19/2008
Posts: 4,268
@Eddie

Good trial.... Now,do your calculation again and include the kilowatts,possible benefits from economies of scale. That could get us closer to a better EPS. Add the possible favourable increase in market perception of the company's diversification - and lets the estimated market share price...

Some deals are like glass. Sometimes it's better to leave them broken than try to hurt yourself putting it back together.
Gordon Gekko
#8 Posted : Tuesday, May 12, 2009 3:42:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@eddie,you have not factored in the carbon credits MSC will get. I don't have the figures off head,but they will make a significant contribution to the bottom line.
simonkabz
#9 Posted : Tuesday, May 12, 2009 4:56:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon
...plus reduced expenses...read no more elec costs. @eddie,thats quite a lot of cash man,why the skepticism? I just didnt get ua point.

Truest proverb: Mwenda pole hajikwai
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
virji1988
#10 Posted : Tuesday, May 12, 2009 7:44:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/7/2006
Posts: 48
so is it worth it to buy at 4.3sh?
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