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William Ruto is NOT going to be President in 2022
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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limanika wrote:If UMK doesn't make it in 2017 due to poor economy, wsr should forget 2022. If UMK wins 2017 and economy deteriorates wsr should forget 2022. And am not even talking about ICc Poor economy. Go to mashinani where the votes are, they feel nothing of your poor economy. Do you know what money did with milk, coffee etc during his rule & people still survived. You will wait for a revolution until you go. We are a peace loving nation except that part of jubilee coalition!!!!! In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Power is taken, not given. Ruto has the guile, ambition and ruthlessness to take power under any circumstance. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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mawinder wrote:harrydre wrote:The only way to end this PEV nonsense every five yrs is to jail one or few of these big guys for 99 yrs. Ili iwe funzo. I agree with you totally. The land grabber should be jailed. Too bad for him as he was used in 2013 and is now as useless as a used condom. Furthermore there are few Kaleos in this forum to defend him. Double standards! What should happen to those who steal votes? Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/10/2008 Posts: 9,131 Location: Kanjo
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mawinder wrote:Liv wrote:Rollout wrote:I have heard a lot of excitement from Kalenjin nation about the inevitable presidency of William Ruto in 2022. To be fair to Kalenjin nation, there are also loud expressions, from Kikuyu nation, of commitment to deliver presidency to William Ruto come 2022. Does all these pass smell test? The answer is NO! Here are my reasons.
Reason: 1. Kikuyu nation will not support Ruto because they can win in 2022 without Kalenjin nation Kikuyu nation can win presidency in 2022 without the support of Kalenjin nation, Kalenjin nation on the other hand cannot win presidency without the support of Kikuyu nation. Because of this imbalance Kikuyu nation will be stupid to handover presidency when they don’t have to. In games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player always takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them. The optimal outcome for Kikuyu nation is to have presidency again in 2022 and they’ll take that decision not because they can’t support a non-kikuyu but because every human being will take similar decision under the similar circumstances.
Reason: 2. Gentlemen agreements are always, as expected not honored and it’s not personal
Gentlemen agreements are meant not to be honored not only in politics but also in business. This is a phenomenon that has been studied widely; it’s also a very important aspect that makes the world work better. It’s no surprise that MOU are never honored, it not because Kikuyu nation is dishonest it is because the interest of every player making gentlemen agreement is to maximize the outcome for themselves. Math and economics has somehow explained why gentlemen agreements are not honor in studies like dominance, backward induction, Nash equilibrium, evolutionary stability, commitment, credibility, asymmetric information, adverse selection Kikuyu nation will not honor the agreement to support Ruto in 2022 because even science do not support it and at the end of the day their strategists will sit down and relay on science to make decisions. That decision is predictable.
Reason: 3. a possible winning coalition outside Jubilee is impossible Because Kalenjin nation cannot win alone, the other path Ruto can take is to form a coalition of his own. As Kenya politics stand, Ruto will have to combine with Luhya Nation and Kamba Nation in order to form a strong enough coalition to win presidency. Combine with both Nations will leave Kikuyu nation without a potential partner; however, games of strategy will tell you that either of the two potential partners will be better off taking number 2 position in a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation than number 3 position in a coalition formed by Kalenjin nation.
Reason: 4. even an improbable coalition with RAO as the DP and Ruto as President will not win Kikuyu nation has two advantages that are hard to overcome in 2017 and 2022, the incumbency advantage and the advantage that comes with being the largest and the most sold voting bloc. Addition of one partner will win them the election regardless of who the partner is. The challenge for opponents of Kikuyu nation voting bloc is that they not only have to form a coalition of their own but they also must keep others from forming a coalition with Kikuyu nation. Given what we know, Kikuyu nation will not have a problem finding a partner and the opponents will have a lot of problems keeping partners away from Kikuyu nation. Reason: 5 No coalition can beat a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation and Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not the lead.
Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not led by their own not because they can’t support other tribes but because it doesn’t make any logical sense. In a games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player, as expected, will takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them. Kikuyu nation should not apologize or be scorned for picking the logical choice and optimizing the outcome for themselves.
Moral Lesson: The largest tribe or an incumbent will win every election until we stop voting along tribal blocs. As long as we still have Kalenjin nation, Kamba nation, Kikuyu nation, Luo nation, Luhya nation and Coast nation voting blocs. Kikuyu nation will win because they are the largest tribe and they hold incumbency advantage. Kikuyu nation should not apologize for it because this is a game of numbers and game of strategy, they have an advantage and they have a right to use it. For all the other losing nations, the only legal way to win presidency is to dissolve tribal voting blocs and integrate the country into one, otherwise this is a race for Deputy Presidency and the smaller/weaker coalition partner. William Ruto and Kalenjin nation will understand this in 2022.
The biggest risk for DP Ruto is the Kalenjin community not voting solidly for Jubilee in 2017. With the current disagreements in the Kalenjin nation, there is a likelihood their votes will be divided between Jubilee, Cord and Kanu (Moi). Consequently though Jubilee will win with support from additional votes from Coast, North Eastern and Western regions, the results will leave DP in a weak position as the country looks at 2022.
One of the strategy CORD is considering is to have a presidential candidate for every major party (Wiper vs ODM) in their coalition ... Particularly if Kalonzo does not agree to stand down for Raila. In that case Governor Rutto can deputize Raila in a new coalition of 3 (Raila, Rutto, Wetangula). That would divide the kalenjin vote significantly and with Mudavadi standing on ANC and Kalonzo with Wiper, this may result in no single coalition getting 50% +1 of total votes. That would force the country to go for the 2nd round of voting and give Raila a better chance of winning using his popular 41 against 1 strategy again. What do you think?
Genius. Cord should take you as their strategist. This is a winning formula. A slight correction, KANU cannot field a candidate against Uhuru. True about KANU, also if watermelon is not with CORD, he will be with UK that's his nature. Question is does CORD have the money to pull that stunt? Are there any sponsors left? i.am.back!!!!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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PeterReborn wrote:harrydre wrote:Alba wrote:harrydre wrote: Ruto & Bu-pamba should actually be rotting in Jail for the events of 2008. I see Mo1's hand behind the scenes to finish Ruto and elevate Giddy...kalooser & MaDvd are also a better option at least they never hurt nobody. Pole sana Ruto, atleast you got to the DP position.
I see you conveniently forgot to mention that Kibaki and Uhuru were responsible for putting pangas in the hands of mungiki. Mungiki then went around slashing anyone who was not a gikuyu. But I guess you think they are innocent? Tell me of anyone a court of law ever found guilty for self defense? UK had to do what UK had to do, Kibaki just sat there like a lame duck, but who were the aggressors? That is the sad reality.Baks the kiguoya sat in statehouse doing nothing as the gukuyu nation was being slaughtered and burnt.The blood of those who were killed will forever remain in his hands. Truth be told it all began with ROBBERY WITH VIOLENCE. Baks and his cocoon using state power robbed off the seat in open daylight. Who steals from someone and expects to be praised? What if Baks accepted defeat and handed over just like MO1 did in 2002? Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/10/2008 Posts: 9,131 Location: Kanjo
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Boris Boyka wrote:PeterReborn wrote:harrydre wrote:Alba wrote:harrydre wrote: Ruto & Bu-pamba should actually be rotting in Jail for the events of 2008. I see Mo1's hand behind the scenes to finish Ruto and elevate Giddy...kalooser & MaDvd are also a better option at least they never hurt nobody. Pole sana Ruto, atleast you got to the DP position.
I see you conveniently forgot to mention that Kibaki and Uhuru were responsible for putting pangas in the hands of mungiki. Mungiki then went around slashing anyone who was not a gikuyu. But I guess you think they are innocent? Tell me of anyone a court of law ever found guilty for self defense? UK had to do what UK had to do, Kibaki just sat there like a lame duck, but who were the aggressors? That is the sad reality.Baks the kiguoya sat in statehouse doing nothing as the gukuyu nation was being slaughtered and burnt.The blood of those who were killed will forever remain in his hands. Truth be told it all began with ROBBERY WITH VIOLENCE. Baks and his cocoon using state power robbed off the seat in open daylight. Who steals from someone and expects to be praised? What if Baks accepted defeat and handed over just like MO1 did in 2002? If someone steals your car or goat, you don't go killing his relatives to force him to surrender the loot. You go to court and wait for it's decision. i.am.back!!!!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 1,982 Location: matano manne
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Boris Boyka wrote:PeterReborn wrote:harrydre wrote:Alba wrote:harrydre wrote: Ruto & Bu-pamba should actually be rotting in Jail for the events of 2008. I see Mo1's hand behind the scenes to finish Ruto and elevate Giddy...kalooser & MaDvd are also a better option at least they never hurt nobody. Pole sana Ruto, atleast you got to the DP position.
I see you conveniently forgot to mention that Kibaki and Uhuru were responsible for putting pangas in the hands of mungiki. Mungiki then went around slashing anyone who was not a gikuyu. But I guess you think they are innocent? Tell me of anyone a court of law ever found guilty for self defense? UK had to do what UK had to do, Kibaki just sat there like a lame duck, but who were the aggressors? That is the sad reality.Baks the kiguoya sat in statehouse doing nothing as the gukuyu nation was being slaughtered and burnt.The blood of those who were killed will forever remain in his hands. Truth be told it all began with ROBBERY WITH VIOLENCE. Baks and his cocoon using state power robbed off the seat in open daylight. Who steals from someone and expects to be praised? What if Baks accepted defeat and handed over just like MO1 did in 2002? @borris, the gospel of madoandoa was the rallying call for ODM ala 41 against 1 was well orchestrated and planned.....the evictions were preplanned. The network consisted of the ODM pentagon.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 1,063
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Liv wrote:AlphDoti wrote:Lolest! wrote:AlphDoti wrote:mpobiz wrote:In the years running to the following presidencyies nobody-kenyan- could contemplate , imagine or even dream of the following persons being president Jomo Mo1 Baks Kijanaa Can anybody tell me what they were doing prior to their ascension to power .in my take they were trying too hard not to look relevant and always trying to look weak. Singh is doing a great job in this and i believe if he keeps it that way the top job is guaranteed for him. Lastly i don't believe he burned a church . We all know that after he delivered the kale vote to arap mibei . It was all upto arap mibei to do as he pleasured himself with the group and he decided to incite them to violence .
We all saw on TV all those fellows at KICC at all times. The mob reaction resulted in violence. The church was burnt after an athlete doing his practice in the morning was killed by youth who had sought refuge in the church, followed by a family car which was barricaded outside the gate and set on fire killing all four occupants (kalenjin man, his wife and two children). The reaction of the community around led to burning of the church. Sheikh Doti always fasshions himself as the holy nationalist! His true colours are always exposed when some tribe is mentioned! @ lonest!, I never favour any tribe, even my own. Everybody has a tribe, including myself, it is not a shame. But for me I've traveled all over Kenya and interacted with all tribes and this has made me see all tribes are equal. Back in days of HIGH SCHOOL, it was a "metropolitan" environment. So I'm different, I don't ascribe to the tribal alignment politically. Hahaha..... That's laughable. Your hatred for Mt Kenya is too conspicuous and consistent in several of your write ups here. You are not being asked to change.... You know your heart .... Keep hating. So he wants to tell us that he is not tribal because he went to school in 'metropolitan' environment SMH.Go tell that to the birds.How many in the urban areas are tribal bigots?Look at our universities including professors who are symbols of enlightenment.Maybe you could be different if you told us that you married a person from a different tribe or that you married a christian.I digress. Now either you are highly ignorant or you are plain stupid.The uprooting of the madoadoa had nothing to do with the stolen elections.The Kaleo worriors were well trained way before the elections and the displacement of these people started happening way before the elections.The general kiguoya knew this and the intelligence was available b ut he did nothing.The only thing that was systematic is the Kaleos that were killed by their own Kaleos and the revenge attacks that happened in naivasha.In fact the revenge attacks prompted the signing of the coalition accord otherwise the madoadoas would have continued to be removed. Consistency is better than intensity
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 1,063
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Rollout wrote:I have heard a lot of excitement from Kalenjin nation about the inevitable presidency of William Ruto in 2022. To be fair to Kalenjin nation, there are also loud expressions, from Kikuyu nation, of commitment to deliver presidency to William Ruto come 2022. Does all these pass smell test? The answer is NO! Here are my reasons.
Reason: 1. Kikuyu nation will not support Ruto because they can win in 2022 without Kalenjin nation Kikuyu nation can win presidency in 2022 without the support of Kalenjin nation, Kalenjin nation on the other hand cannot win presidency without the support of Kikuyu nation. Because of this imbalance Kikuyu nation will be stupid to handover presidency when they don’t have to. In games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player always takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them. The optimal outcome for Kikuyu nation is to have presidency again in 2022 and they’ll take that decision not because they can’t support a non-kikuyu but because every human being will take similar decision under the similar circumstances.
Reason: 2. Gentlemen agreements are always, as expected not honored and it’s not personal
Gentlemen agreements are meant not to be honored not only in politics but also in business. This is a phenomenon that has been studied widely; it’s also a very important aspect that makes the world work better. It’s no surprise that MOU are never honored, it not because Kikuyu nation is dishonest it is because the interest of every player making gentlemen agreement is to maximize the outcome for themselves. Math and economics has somehow explained why gentlemen agreements are not honor in studies like dominance, backward induction, Nash equilibrium, evolutionary stability, commitment, credibility, asymmetric information, adverse selection Kikuyu nation will not honor the agreement to support Ruto in 2022 because even science do not support it and at the end of the day their strategists will sit down and relay on science to make decisions. That decision is predictable.
Reason: 3. a possible winning coalition outside Jubilee is impossible Because Kalenjin nation cannot win alone, the other path Ruto can take is to form a coalition of his own. As Kenya politics stand, Ruto will have to combine with Luhya Nation and Kamba Nation in order to form a strong enough coalition to win presidency. Combine with both Nations will leave Kikuyu nation without a potential partner; however, games of strategy will tell you that either of the two potential partners will be better off taking number 2 position in a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation than number 3 position in a coalition formed by Kalenjin nation.
Reason: 4. even an improbable coalition with RAO as the DP and Ruto as President will not win Kikuyu nation has two advantages that are hard to overcome in 2017 and 2022, the incumbency advantage and the advantage that comes with being the largest and the most sold voting bloc. Addition of one partner will win them the election regardless of who the partner is. The challenge for opponents of Kikuyu nation voting bloc is that they not only have to form a coalition of their own but they also must keep others from forming a coalition with Kikuyu nation. Given what we know, Kikuyu nation will not have a problem finding a partner and the opponents will have a lot of problems keeping partners away from Kikuyu nation. Reason: 5 No coalition can beat a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation and Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not the lead.
Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not led by their own not because they can’t support other tribes but because it doesn’t make any logical sense. In a games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player, as expected, will takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them. Kikuyu nation should not apologize or be scorned for picking the logical choice and optimizing the outcome for themselves.
Moral Lesson: The largest tribe or an incumbent will win every election until we stop voting along tribal blocs. As long as we still have Kalenjin nation, Kamba nation, Kikuyu nation, Luo nation, Luhya nation and Coast nation voting blocs. Kikuyu nation will win because they are the largest tribe and they hold incumbency advantage. Kikuyu nation should not apologize for it because this is a game of numbers and game of strategy, they have an advantage and they have a right to use it. For all the other losing nations, the only legal way to win presidency is to dissolve tribal voting blocs and integrate the country into one, otherwise this is a race for Deputy Presidency and the smaller/weaker coalition partner. William Ruto and Kalenjin nation will understand this in 2022.
One of the biggest assumptions you have made is the kikuyu nation will vote as a block.The reason the kikuyu nation voted for uhuruto is some wanted uhuru but the other half feared a Raila presidency.If Raila stepped down and appointed another person from west coast-say mudavadi or Ababu then this would distort the mathematics completely. Consistency is better than intensity
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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PeterReborn wrote:Rollout wrote:I have heard a lot of excitement from Kalenjin nation about the inevitable presidency of William Ruto in 2022. To be fair to Kalenjin nation, there are also loud expressions, from Kikuyu nation, of commitment to deliver presidency to William Ruto come 2022. Does all these pass smell test? The answer is NO! Here are my reasons.
Reason: 1. Kikuyu nation will not support Ruto because they can win in 2022 without Kalenjin nation Kikuyu nation can win presidency in 2022 without the support of Kalenjin nation, Kalenjin nation on the other hand cannot win presidency without the support of Kikuyu nation. Because of this imbalance Kikuyu nation will be stupid to handover presidency when they don’t have to. In games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player always takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them. The optimal outcome for Kikuyu nation is to have presidency again in 2022 and they’ll take that decision not because they can’t support a non-kikuyu but because every human being will take similar decision under the similar circumstances.
Reason: 2. Gentlemen agreements are always, as expected not honored and it’s not personal
Gentlemen agreements are meant not to be honored not only in politics but also in business. This is a phenomenon that has been studied widely; it’s also a very important aspect that makes the world work better. It’s no surprise that MOU are never honored, it not because Kikuyu nation is dishonest it is because the interest of every player making gentlemen agreement is to maximize the outcome for themselves. Math and economics has somehow explained why gentlemen agreements are not honor in studies like dominance, backward induction, Nash equilibrium, evolutionary stability, commitment, credibility, asymmetric information, adverse selection Kikuyu nation will not honor the agreement to support Ruto in 2022 because even science do not support it and at the end of the day their strategists will sit down and relay on science to make decisions. That decision is predictable.
Reason: 3. a possible winning coalition outside Jubilee is impossible Because Kalenjin nation cannot win alone, the other path Ruto can take is to form a coalition of his own. As Kenya politics stand, Ruto will have to combine with Luhya Nation and Kamba Nation in order to form a strong enough coalition to win presidency. Combine with both Nations will leave Kikuyu nation without a potential partner; however, games of strategy will tell you that either of the two potential partners will be better off taking number 2 position in a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation than number 3 position in a coalition formed by Kalenjin nation.
Reason: 4. even an improbable coalition with RAO as the DP and Ruto as President will not win Kikuyu nation has two advantages that are hard to overcome in 2017 and 2022, the incumbency advantage and the advantage that comes with being the largest and the most sold voting bloc. Addition of one partner will win them the election regardless of who the partner is. The challenge for opponents of Kikuyu nation voting bloc is that they not only have to form a coalition of their own but they also must keep others from forming a coalition with Kikuyu nation. Given what we know, Kikuyu nation will not have a problem finding a partner and the opponents will have a lot of problems keeping partners away from Kikuyu nation. Reason: 5 No coalition can beat a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation and Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not the lead.
Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not led by their own not because they can’t support other tribes but because it doesn’t make any logical sense. In a games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player, as expected, will takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them. Kikuyu nation should not apologize or be scorned for picking the logical choice and optimizing the outcome for themselves.
Moral Lesson: The largest tribe or an incumbent will win every election until we stop voting along tribal blocs. As long as we still have Kalenjin nation, Kamba nation, Kikuyu nation, Luo nation, Luhya nation and Coast nation voting blocs. Kikuyu nation will win because they are the largest tribe and they hold incumbency advantage. Kikuyu nation should not apologize for it because this is a game of numbers and game of strategy, they have an advantage and they have a right to use it. For all the other losing nations, the only legal way to win presidency is to dissolve tribal voting blocs and integrate the country into one, otherwise this is a race for Deputy Presidency and the smaller/weaker coalition partner. William Ruto and Kalenjin nation will understand this in 2022.
One of the biggest assumptions you have made is the kikuyu nation will vote as a block.The reason the kikuyu nation voted for uhuruto is some wanted uhuru but the other half feared a Raila presidency.If Raila stepped down and appointed another person from west coast-say mudavadi or Ababu then this would distort the mathematics completely. If Raila misses in equation and Raila minded person is not there either Kikuyu's can't vote as a block. So long as Raila is on the other side then ODM can't win. He scares Kikuyu voters. Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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mawinder wrote:Liv wrote:Rollout wrote:I have heard a lot of excitement from Kalenjin nation about the inevitable presidency of William Ruto in 2022. To be fair to Kalenjin nation, there are also loud expressions, from Kikuyu nation, of commitment to deliver presidency to William Ruto come 2022. Does all these pass smell test? The answer is NO! Here are my reasons.
Reason: 1. Kikuyu nation will not support Ruto because they can win in 2022 without Kalenjin nation Kikuyu nation can win presidency in 2022 without the support of Kalenjin nation, Kalenjin nation on the other hand cannot win presidency without the support of Kikuyu nation. Because of this imbalance Kikuyu nation will be stupid to handover presidency when they don’t have to. In games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player always takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them. The optimal outcome for Kikuyu nation is to have presidency again in 2022 and they’ll take that decision not because they can’t support a non-kikuyu but because every human being will take similar decision under the similar circumstances.
Reason: 2. Gentlemen agreements are always, as expected not honored and it’s not personal
Gentlemen agreements are meant not to be honored not only in politics but also in business. This is a phenomenon that has been studied widely; it’s also a very important aspect that makes the world work better. It’s no surprise that MOU are never honored, it not because Kikuyu nation is dishonest it is because the interest of every player making gentlemen agreement is to maximize the outcome for themselves. Math and economics has somehow explained why gentlemen agreements are not honor in studies like dominance, backward induction, Nash equilibrium, evolutionary stability, commitment, credibility, asymmetric information, adverse selection Kikuyu nation will not honor the agreement to support Ruto in 2022 because even science do not support it and at the end of the day their strategists will sit down and relay on science to make decisions. That decision is predictable.
Reason: 3. a possible winning coalition outside Jubilee is impossible Because Kalenjin nation cannot win alone, the other path Ruto can take is to form a coalition of his own. As Kenya politics stand, Ruto will have to combine with Luhya Nation and Kamba Nation in order to form a strong enough coalition to win presidency. Combine with both Nations will leave Kikuyu nation without a potential partner; however, games of strategy will tell you that either of the two potential partners will be better off taking number 2 position in a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation than number 3 position in a coalition formed by Kalenjin nation.
Reason: 4. even an improbable coalition with RAO as the DP and Ruto as President will not win Kikuyu nation has two advantages that are hard to overcome in 2017 and 2022, the incumbency advantage and the advantage that comes with being the largest and the most sold voting bloc. Addition of one partner will win them the election regardless of who the partner is. The challenge for opponents of Kikuyu nation voting bloc is that they not only have to form a coalition of their own but they also must keep others from forming a coalition with Kikuyu nation. Given what we know, Kikuyu nation will not have a problem finding a partner and the opponents will have a lot of problems keeping partners away from Kikuyu nation. Reason: 5 No coalition can beat a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation and Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not the lead.
Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not led by their own not because they can’t support other tribes but because it doesn’t make any logical sense. In a games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player, as expected, will takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them. Kikuyu nation should not apologize or be scorned for picking the logical choice and optimizing the outcome for themselves.
Moral Lesson: The largest tribe or an incumbent will win every election until we stop voting along tribal blocs. As long as we still have Kalenjin nation, Kamba nation, Kikuyu nation, Luo nation, Luhya nation and Coast nation voting blocs. Kikuyu nation will win because they are the largest tribe and they hold incumbency advantage. Kikuyu nation should not apologize for it because this is a game of numbers and game of strategy, they have an advantage and they have a right to use it. For all the other losing nations, the only legal way to win presidency is to dissolve tribal voting blocs and integrate the country into one, otherwise this is a race for Deputy Presidency and the smaller/weaker coalition partner. William Ruto and Kalenjin nation will understand this in 2022.
The biggest risk for DP Ruto is the Kalenjin community not voting solidly for Jubilee in 2017. With the current disagreements in the Kalenjin nation, there is a likelihood their votes will be divided between Jubilee, Cord and Kanu (Moi). Consequently though Jubilee will win with support from additional votes from Coast, North Eastern and Western regions, the results will leave DP in a weak position as the country looks at 2022.
One of the strategy CORD is considering is to have a presidential candidate for every major party (Wiper vs ODM) in their coalition ... Particularly if Kalonzo does not agree to stand down for Raila. In that case Governor Rutto can deputize Raila in a new coalition of 3 (Raila, Rutto, Wetangula). That would divide the kalenjin vote significantly and with Mudavadi standing on ANC and Kalonzo with Wiper, this may result in no single coalition getting 50% +1 of total votes. That would force the country to go for the 2nd round of voting and give Raila a better chance of winning using his popular 41 against 1 strategy again. What do you think?
Genius. Cord should take you as their strategist. This is a winning formula. A slight correction, KANU cannot field a candidate against Uhuru. I would be surprised if CORD does not have strategists who think like that. I guess there are people in Jubilee who are already thinking about the various strategies CORD might use for 2017 and how to counter them. The "41 against 1" is one strategy that gives more confidence to those against Raila and ODM anytime.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/6/2009 Posts: 587
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Liv wrote:mawinder wrote:Liv wrote:Rollout wrote:I have heard a lot of excitement from Kalenjin nation about the inevitable presidency of William Ruto in 2022. To be fair to Kalenjin nation, there are also loud expressions, from Kikuyu nation, of commitment to deliver presidency to William Ruto come 2022. Does all these pass smell test? The answer is NO! Here are my reasons.
Reason: 1. Kikuyu nation will not support Ruto because they can win in 2022 without Kalenjin nation Kikuyu nation can win presidency in 2022 without the support of Kalenjin nation, Kalenjin nation on the other hand cannot win presidency without the support of Kikuyu nation. Because of this imbalance Kikuyu nation will be stupid to handover presidency when they don’t have to. In games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player always takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them. The optimal outcome for Kikuyu nation is to have presidency again in 2022 and they’ll take that decision not because they can’t support a non-kikuyu but because every human being will take similar decision under the similar circumstances.
Reason: 2. Gentlemen agreements are always, as expected not honored and it’s not personal
Gentlemen agreements are meant not to be honored not only in politics but also in business. This is a phenomenon that has been studied widely; it’s also a very important aspect that makes the world work better. It’s no surprise that MOU are never honored, it not because Kikuyu nation is dishonest it is because the interest of every player making gentlemen agreement is to maximize the outcome for themselves. Math and economics has somehow explained why gentlemen agreements are not honor in studies like dominance, backward induction, Nash equilibrium, evolutionary stability, commitment, credibility, asymmetric information, adverse selection Kikuyu nation will not honor the agreement to support Ruto in 2022 because even science do not support it and at the end of the day their strategists will sit down and relay on science to make decisions. That decision is predictable.
Reason: 3. a possible winning coalition outside Jubilee is impossible Because Kalenjin nation cannot win alone, the other path Ruto can take is to form a coalition of his own. As Kenya politics stand, Ruto will have to combine with Luhya Nation and Kamba Nation in order to form a strong enough coalition to win presidency. Combine with both Nations will leave Kikuyu nation without a potential partner; however, games of strategy will tell you that either of the two potential partners will be better off taking number 2 position in a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation than number 3 position in a coalition formed by Kalenjin nation.
Reason: 4. even an improbable coalition with RAO as the DP and Ruto as President will not win Kikuyu nation has two advantages that are hard to overcome in 2017 and 2022, the incumbency advantage and the advantage that comes with being the largest and the most sold voting bloc. Addition of one partner will win them the election regardless of who the partner is. The challenge for opponents of Kikuyu nation voting bloc is that they not only have to form a coalition of their own but they also must keep others from forming a coalition with Kikuyu nation. Given what we know, Kikuyu nation will not have a problem finding a partner and the opponents will have a lot of problems keeping partners away from Kikuyu nation. Reason: 5 No coalition can beat a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation and Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not the lead.
Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not led by their own not because they can’t support other tribes but because it doesn’t make any logical sense. In a games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player, as expected, will takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them. Kikuyu nation should not apologize or be scorned for picking the logical choice and optimizing the outcome for themselves.
Moral Lesson: The largest tribe or an incumbent will win every election until we stop voting along tribal blocs. As long as we still have Kalenjin nation, Kamba nation, Kikuyu nation, Luo nation, Luhya nation and Coast nation voting blocs. Kikuyu nation will win because they are the largest tribe and they hold incumbency advantage. Kikuyu nation should not apologize for it because this is a game of numbers and game of strategy, they have an advantage and they have a right to use it. For all the other losing nations, the only legal way to win presidency is to dissolve tribal voting blocs and integrate the country into one, otherwise this is a race for Deputy Presidency and the smaller/weaker coalition partner. William Ruto and Kalenjin nation will understand this in 2022.
The biggest risk for DP Ruto is the Kalenjin community not voting solidly for Jubilee in 2017. With the current disagreements in the Kalenjin nation, there is a likelihood their votes will be divided between Jubilee, Cord and Kanu (Moi). Consequently though Jubilee will win with support from additional votes from Coast, North Eastern and Western regions, the results will leave DP in a weak position as the country looks at 2022.
One of the strategy CORD is considering is to have a presidential candidate for every major party (Wiper vs ODM) in their coalition ... Particularly if Kalonzo does not agree to stand down for Raila. In that case Governor Rutto can deputize Raila in a new coalition of 3 (Raila, Rutto, Wetangula). That would divide the kalenjin vote significantly and with Mudavadi standing on ANC and Kalonzo with Wiper, this may result in no single coalition getting 50% +1 of total votes. That would force the country to go for the 2nd round of voting and give Raila a better chance of winning using his popular 41 against 1 strategy again. What do you think?
Genius. Cord should take you as their strategist. This is a winning formula. A slight correction, KANU cannot field a candidate against Uhuru. I would be surprised if CORD does not have strategists who think like that. I guess there are people in Jubilee who are already thinking about the various strategies CORD might use for 2017 and how to counter them. The "41 against 1" is one strategy that gives more confidence to those against Raila and ODM anytime. The 41 against 1 is an outdated strategy which cord cannot use to win an election. Things are abit different now!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2008 Posts: 6,275 Location: Kenya
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PeterReborn wrote:Liv wrote:AlphDoti wrote:Lolest! wrote:AlphDoti wrote:mpobiz wrote:In the years running to the following presidencyies nobody-kenyan- could contemplate , imagine or even dream of the following persons being president Jomo Mo1 Baks Kijanaa Can anybody tell me what they were doing prior to their ascension to power .in my take they were trying too hard not to look relevant and always trying to look weak. Singh is doing a great job in this and i believe if he keeps it that way the top job is guaranteed for him. Lastly i don't believe he burned a church . We all know that after he delivered the kale vote to arap mibei . It was all upto arap mibei to do as he pleasured himself with the group and he decided to incite them to violence .
We all saw on TV all those fellows at KICC at all times. The mob reaction resulted in violence. The church was burnt after an athlete doing his practice in the morning was killed by youth who had sought refuge in the church, followed by a family car which was barricaded outside the gate and set on fire killing all four occupants (kalenjin man, his wife and two children). The reaction of the community around led to burning of the church. Sheikh Doti always fasshions himself as the holy nationalist! His true colours are always exposed when some tribe is mentioned! @ lonest!, I never favour any tribe, even my own. Everybody has a tribe, including myself, it is not a shame. But for me I've traveled all over Kenya and interacted with all tribes and this has made me see all tribes are equal. Back in days of HIGH SCHOOL, it was a "metropolitan" environment. So I'm different, I don't ascribe to the tribal alignment politically. Hahaha..... That's laughable. Your hatred for Mt Kenya is too conspicuous and consistent in several of your write ups here. You are not being asked to change.... You know your heart .... Keep hating. So he wants to tell us that he is not tribal because he went to school in 'metropolitan' environment SMH.Go tell that to the birds.How many in the urban areas are tribal bigots?Look at our universities including professors who are symbols of enlightenment.Maybe you could be different if you told us that you married a person from a different tribe or that you married a christian.I digress. Now either you are highly ignorant or you are plain stupid.The uprooting of the madoadoa had nothing to do with the stolen elections.The Kaleo worriors were well trained way before the elections and the displacement of these people started happening way before the elections.The general kiguoya knew this and the intelligence was available b ut he did nothing.The only thing that was systematic is the Kaleos that were killed by their own Kaleos and the revenge attacks that happened in naivasha.In fact the revenge attacks prompted the signing of the coalition accord otherwise the madoadoas would have continued to be removed. @liv and @PeterReborn, again let me point out that I criticize anybody who is tribal. I guess it pains you because I don't align with you as you may expect. But we all know Mt. Kenya have consistently demonstrated their tribalism through out the Kenyan democracy since 1992 ( always vote their own). So whether it is my tribe or not, shame on them. Even @alma who has disclosed his tribal background condemns that tribal bigotry. Regarding madoadoa, so if this was always there since 1992, 1997, how then does it become a 2007 affair? The witnesses should say: every election madaodoa strategy is used. They should stop pretending to incriminate people just for pay. I blame Kibaki for that 2007 mess. All the other guys are not directly guilty. They were all fighting for the vote at KICC! We saw in broad daylight them complaining to Kivuitu all those days!!!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 1,063
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AlphDoti wrote:PeterReborn wrote:Liv wrote:AlphDoti wrote:Lolest! wrote:AlphDoti wrote:mpobiz wrote:In the years running to the following presidencyies nobody-kenyan- could contemplate , imagine or even dream of the following persons being president Jomo Mo1 Baks Kijanaa Can anybody tell me what they were doing prior to their ascension to power .in my take they were trying too hard not to look relevant and always trying to look weak. Singh is doing a great job in this and i believe if he keeps it that way the top job is guaranteed for him. Lastly i don't believe he burned a church . We all know that after he delivered the kale vote to arap mibei . It was all upto arap mibei to do as he pleasured himself with the group and he decided to incite them to violence .
We all saw on TV all those fellows at KICC at all times. The mob reaction resulted in violence. The church was burnt after an athlete doing his practice in the morning was killed by youth who had sought refuge in the church, followed by a family car which was barricaded outside the gate and set on fire killing all four occupants (kalenjin man, his wife and two children). The reaction of the community around led to burning of the church. Sheikh Doti always fasshions himself as the holy nationalist! His true colours are always exposed when some tribe is mentioned! @ lonest!, I never favour any tribe, even my own. Everybody has a tribe, including myself, it is not a shame. But for me I've traveled all over Kenya and interacted with all tribes and this has made me see all tribes are equal. Back in days of HIGH SCHOOL, it was a "metropolitan" environment. So I'm different, I don't ascribe to the tribal alignment politically. Hahaha..... That's laughable. Your hatred for Mt Kenya is too conspicuous and consistent in several of your write ups here. You are not being asked to change.... You know your heart .... Keep hating. So he wants to tell us that he is not tribal because he went to school in 'metropolitan' environment SMH.Go tell that to the birds.How many in the urban areas are tribal bigots?Look at our universities including professors who are symbols of enlightenment.Maybe you could be different if you told us that you married a person from a different tribe or that you married a christian.I digress. Now either you are highly ignorant or you are plain stupid.The uprooting of the madoadoa had nothing to do with the stolen elections.The Kaleo worriors were well trained way before the elections and the displacement of these people started happening way before the elections.The general kiguoya knew this and the intelligence was available b ut he did nothing.The only thing that was systematic is the Kaleos that were killed by their own Kaleos and the revenge attacks that happened in naivasha.In fact the revenge attacks prompted the signing of the coalition accord otherwise the madoadoas would have continued to be removed. @liv and @PeterReborn, again let me point out that I criticize anybody who is tribal. I guess it pains you because I don't align with you as you may expect. But we all know Mt. Kenya have consistently demonstrated their tribalism through out the Kenyan democracy since 1992 ( always vote their own). So whether it is my tribe or not, shame on them. Even @alma who has disclosed his tribal background condemns that tribal bigotry. Regarding madoadoa, so if this was always there since 1992, 1997, how then does it become a 2007 affair? The witnesses should say: every election madaodoa strategy is used. They should stop pretending to incriminate people just for pay. I blame Kibaki for that 2007 mess. All the other guys are not directly guilty. They were all fighting for the vote at KICC! We saw in broad daylight them complaining to Kivuitu all those days!!! Maybe you live in Ethiopia and you have no idea how Kenya operates.Whom have the luos voted for if not the Odinga family,what bout Kaleos and Moi family.It is called herd mentality.If Uhuru had stepped down and anointed Mudavadi then Okuyus would have voted for Mudavadi.Don't tell me that luos are not tribal because they voted for Kibaki in 2003.They only did so because they were directed by bupamba.So Okuyus,Luos,Kaleos are equally tribal. Consistency is better than intensity
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2008 Posts: 6,275 Location: Kenya
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PeterReborn wrote:AlphDoti wrote:PeterReborn wrote:Liv wrote:AlphDoti wrote:Lolest! wrote:AlphDoti wrote:mpobiz wrote:In the years running to the following presidencyies nobody-kenyan- could contemplate , imagine or even dream of the following persons being president Jomo Mo1 Baks Kijanaa Can anybody tell me what they were doing prior to their ascension to power .in my take they were trying too hard not to look relevant and always trying to look weak. Singh is doing a great job in this and i believe if he keeps it that way the top job is guaranteed for him. Lastly i don't believe he burned a church . We all know that after he delivered the kale vote to arap mibei . It was all upto arap mibei to do as he pleasured himself with the group and he decided to incite them to violence .
We all saw on TV all those fellows at KICC at all times. The mob reaction resulted in violence. The church was burnt after an athlete doing his practice in the morning was killed by youth who had sought refuge in the church, followed by a family car which was barricaded outside the gate and set on fire killing all four occupants (kalenjin man, his wife and two children). The reaction of the community around led to burning of the church. Sheikh Doti always fasshions himself as the holy nationalist! His true colours are always exposed when some tribe is mentioned! @ lonest!, I never favour any tribe, even my own. Everybody has a tribe, including myself, it is not a shame. But for me I've traveled all over Kenya and interacted with all tribes and this has made me see all tribes are equal. Back in days of HIGH SCHOOL, it was a "metropolitan" environment. So I'm different, I don't ascribe to the tribal alignment politically. Hahaha..... That's laughable. Your hatred for Mt Kenya is too conspicuous and consistent in several of your write ups here. You are not being asked to change.... You know your heart .... Keep hating. So he wants to tell us that he is not tribal because he went to school in 'metropolitan' environment SMH.Go tell that to the birds.How many in the urban areas are tribal bigots?Look at our universities including professors who are symbols of enlightenment.Maybe you could be different if you told us that you married a person from a different tribe or that you married a christian.I digress. Now either you are highly ignorant or you are plain stupid.The uprooting of the madoadoa had nothing to do with the stolen elections.The Kaleo worriors were well trained way before the elections and the displacement of these people started happening way before the elections.The general kiguoya knew this and the intelligence was available b ut he did nothing.The only thing that was systematic is the Kaleos that were killed by their own Kaleos and the revenge attacks that happened in naivasha.In fact the revenge attacks prompted the signing of the coalition accord otherwise the madoadoas would have continued to be removed. @liv and @PeterReborn, again let me point out that I criticize anybody who is tribal. I guess it pains you because I don't align with you as you may expect. But we all know Mt. Kenya have consistently demonstrated their tribalism through out the Kenyan democracy since 1992 ( always vote their own). So whether it is my tribe or not, shame on them. Even @alma who has disclosed his tribal background condemns that tribal bigotry. Regarding madoadoa, so if this was always there since 1992, 1997, how then does it become a 2007 affair? The witnesses should say: every election madaodoa strategy is used. They should stop pretending to incriminate people just for pay. I blame Kibaki for that 2007 mess. All the other guys are not directly guilty. They were all fighting for the vote at KICC! We saw in broad daylight them complaining to Kivuitu all those days!!! Maybe you live in Ethiopia and you have no idea how Kenya operates.Whom have the luos voted for if not the Odinga family,what bout Kaleos and Moi family.It is called herd mentality.If Uhuru had stepped down and anointed Mudavadi then Okuyus would have voted for Mudavadi.Don't tell me that luos are not tribal because they voted for Kibaki in 2003.They only did so because they were directed by bupamba.So Okuyus,Luos,Kaleos are equally tribal. That's why I said Mt. Kenya have consistently voted for their own. Others, have at least supported another tribe.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 1,063
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AlphDoti wrote:PeterReborn wrote:AlphDoti wrote:PeterReborn wrote:Liv wrote:AlphDoti wrote:Lolest! wrote:AlphDoti wrote:mpobiz wrote:In the years running to the following presidencyies nobody-kenyan- could contemplate , imagine or even dream of the following persons being president Jomo Mo1 Baks Kijanaa Can anybody tell me what they were doing prior to their ascension to power .in my take they were trying too hard not to look relevant and always trying to look weak. Singh is doing a great job in this and i believe if he keeps it that way the top job is guaranteed for him. Lastly i don't believe he burned a church . We all know that after he delivered the kale vote to arap mibei . It was all upto arap mibei to do as he pleasured himself with the group and he decided to incite them to violence .
We all saw on TV all those fellows at KICC at all times. The mob reaction resulted in violence. The church was burnt after an athlete doing his practice in the morning was killed by youth who had sought refuge in the church, followed by a family car which was barricaded outside the gate and set on fire killing all four occupants (kalenjin man, his wife and two children). The reaction of the community around led to burning of the church. Sheikh Doti always fasshions himself as the holy nationalist! His true colours are always exposed when some tribe is mentioned! @ lonest!, I never favour any tribe, even my own. Everybody has a tribe, including myself, it is not a shame. But for me I've traveled all over Kenya and interacted with all tribes and this has made me see all tribes are equal. Back in days of HIGH SCHOOL, it was a "metropolitan" environment. So I'm different, I don't ascribe to the tribal alignment politically. Hahaha..... That's laughable. Your hatred for Mt Kenya is too conspicuous and consistent in several of your write ups here. You are not being asked to change.... You know your heart .... Keep hating. So he wants to tell us that he is not tribal because he went to school in 'metropolitan' environment SMH.Go tell that to the birds.How many in the urban areas are tribal bigots?Look at our universities including professors who are symbols of enlightenment.Maybe you could be different if you told us that you married a person from a different tribe or that you married a christian.I digress. Now either you are highly ignorant or you are plain stupid.The uprooting of the madoadoa had nothing to do with the stolen elections.The Kaleo worriors were well trained way before the elections and the displacement of these people started happening way before the elections.The general kiguoya knew this and the intelligence was available b ut he did nothing.The only thing that was systematic is the Kaleos that were killed by their own Kaleos and the revenge attacks that happened in naivasha.In fact the revenge attacks prompted the signing of the coalition accord otherwise the madoadoas would have continued to be removed. @liv and @PeterReborn, again let me point out that I criticize anybody who is tribal. I guess it pains you because I don't align with you as you may expect. But we all know Mt. Kenya have consistently demonstrated their tribalism through out the Kenyan democracy since 1992 ( always vote their own). So whether it is my tribe or not, shame on them. Even @alma who has disclosed his tribal background condemns that tribal bigotry. Regarding madoadoa, so if this was always there since 1992, 1997, how then does it become a 2007 affair? The witnesses should say: every election madaodoa strategy is used. They should stop pretending to incriminate people just for pay. I blame Kibaki for that 2007 mess. All the other guys are not directly guilty. They were all fighting for the vote at KICC! We saw in broad daylight them complaining to Kivuitu all those days!!! Maybe you live in Ethiopia and you have no idea how Kenya operates.Whom have the luos voted for if not the Odinga family,what bout Kaleos and Moi family.It is called herd mentality.If Uhuru had stepped down and anointed Mudavadi then Okuyus would have voted for Mudavadi.Don't tell me that luos are not tribal because they voted for Kibaki in 2003.They only did so because they were directed by bupamba.So Okuyus,Luos,Kaleos are equally tribal. That's why I said Mt. Kenya have consistently voted for their own. Others, have at least supported another tribe. Does that make them the most tribal? Consistency is better than intensity
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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AlphDoti wrote: @liv and @PeterReborn, again let me point out that I criticize anybody who is tribal. I guess it pains you because I don't align with you as you may expect. But we all know Mt. Kenya have consistently demonstrated their tribalism through out the Kenyan democracy since 1992 (always vote their own). So whether it is my tribe or not, shame on them. Even @alma who has disclosed his tribal background condemns that tribal bigotry.
Regarding madoadoa, so if this was always there since 1992, 1997, how then does it become a 2007 affair? The witnesses should say: every election madaodoa strategy is used. They should stop pretending to incriminate people just for pay.
I blame Kibaki for that 2007 mess. All the other guys are not directly guilty. They were all fighting for the vote at KICC! We saw in broad daylight them complaining to Kivuitu all those days!!!
What a weird reason to hate some people.... so you hate them because they expressed their God given and constitutional right to vote in a certain way?
Is that any different from those who hate because of a promise to sleep with 72 virgins when they die?
FYI.... They don't feel any pain from your hate and ignorance. You don't affect their lives in anyway. You can carry on with your hatred.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2008 Posts: 6,275 Location: Kenya
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Liv wrote:AlphDoti wrote: @liv and @PeterReborn, again let me point out that I criticize anybody who is tribal. I guess it pains you because I don't align with you as you may expect. But we all know Mt. Kenya have consistently demonstrated their tribalism through out the Kenyan democracy since 1992 (always vote their own). So whether it is my tribe or not, shame on them. Even @alma who has disclosed his tribal background condemns that tribal bigotry.
Regarding madoadoa, so if this was always there since 1992, 1997, how then does it become a 2007 affair? The witnesses should say: every election madaodoa strategy is used. They should stop pretending to incriminate people just for pay.
I blame Kibaki for that 2007 mess. All the other guys are not directly guilty. They were all fighting for the vote at KICC! We saw in broad daylight them complaining to Kivuitu all those days!!!
What a weird reason to hate some people.... so you hate them because they expressed their God given and constitutional right to vote in a certain way?
Is that any different from those who hate because of a promise to sleep with 72 virgins when they die?
FYI.... They don't feel any pain from your hate and ignorance. You don't affect their lives in anyway. You can carry on with your hatred. @Liv where are you reading that word "hate"? How can I hate my mother when she votes coz of tribe? I will be disappointed by her actions, but I will not hate. Understand? Please get a dictionary and learn the difference between: hate and criticize. There is a difference between myths and reality. It is a fact voting is along tribal lines and a society which clings to tribal politics remains stagnant. Whereas 72 virgins story is a myth, and it will remain a myth. You understand now? So please, start from yourself, stop tribal politics if you want Kenya to move forward.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/11/2015 Posts: 1,024
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2008 Posts: 6,275 Location: Kenya
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Anti_Burglar wrote:Alma ni wa kabila gani? Why are you asking? But he is a man enough to stand above "primitive energy" I see in most Kenyans
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