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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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iris
#1061 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 4:47:05 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/11/2014
Posts: 228
Location: Nairobi
@Mnandii, kindly interpret "usered" for me. I have seen it on Wazua several times but not been able to get meaning from context.
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Spikes
#1062 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 5:30:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
What if the market NSE defies expert opinions in the medium term? Will it be bullish in the short run in near future?
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1063 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 5:55:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
lochaz-index wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
hisah wrote:
The only way the bull will return after such an ugly break down is massive PPT action.

Politics being politics I don't see treasury saving KES while the economy goes to the dogs. The negative civil fabric sentiments will force politicians to seek the easiest way out. Print print print inflation be damned. That massive liquidity injection into the economy is what will recharge the bulls.

For now the fight is on their table, which choice will they take inflation or deflation. I expect them to take inflation. The repercussions of deflation are worse than inflation especially with elections around the corner.



Not any soonSad Blame it on Eurobond & the IMF loans in USD. So brace yourself for a long spell of high interest rates. I see the thread on Tbills is quite active. We had warned guys during the bull in the maxed out thread about this. And we will see post 25% on T/bills. People should forget ever seeing the dollar at sub 100!


Treasury is in a fine mess. Kra will most likely collect sub one trillion in revenues for the current financial year. We have upwards of 600b due in 2016. So before you factor in both domestic and international deficit funding, we only have 400b(at best) to fund both recurrent and development expenditure.

External debt will be sought at a bigger premium courtesy of the latest downgrade and more downgrades will quickly follow meaning more expensive debt.

Domestic debt aka tbills and bonds are also getting unmanageable by the day. Going by the latest trend of the government sucking up any money thrown at it means the rates will be heading north.

How they will pay back all these debts while facing dwindling revenues and at the same time finance the budget is a mystery.

Deflation makes debt very nasty/pronounced so cbk will have to play a trick shot( genius of the governor notwithstanding, this may not be achievable) or print money.

I wonder how we got here.
@SufficientlyP
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1064 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 5:57:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mnandii wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
hisah wrote:
The only way the bull will return after such an ugly break down is massive PPT action.

Politics being politics I don't see treasury saving KES while the economy goes to the dogs. The negative civil fabric sentiments will force politicians to seek the easiest way out. Print print print inflation be damned. That massive liquidity injection into the economy is what will recharge the bulls.

For now the fight is on their table, which choice will they take inflation or deflation. I expect them to take inflation. The repercussions of deflation are worse than inflation especially with elections around the corner.



Not any soonSad Blame it on Eurobond & the IMF loans in USD. So brace yourself for a long spell of high interest rates. I see the thread on Tbills is quite active. We had warned guys during the bull in the maxed out thread about this. And we will see post 25% on T/bills. People should forget ever seeing the dollar at sub 100!


I actually expect the dollar at sub 100.

That would be nice.
@SufficientlyP
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Spikes
#1065 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 10:08:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
What is PPT in full?
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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sparkly
#1066 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 10:52:47 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Spikes wrote:
What is PPT in full?

plunge protection team
Life is short. Live passionately.
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, October 17, 2015 10:54 PM | Reason: Not specified
Spikes
#1067 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 11:25:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
thanx
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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hisah
#1068 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 5:57:20 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Snooping the stocks section and I see this, Guest (96), hisah. Bear winter gaining traction.

@mnandii read this article ICPAK introduces strict regulations for external auditors

I foresee an auditing firm getting sacrificed as the bear gets muscular. That will send more shockwaves in the market as the affected listed firms are forced into restatements may be spanning more than two yrs! Restatements in the banking sector will crash the market!

Meanwhile the market awaits mpesa bank H1 and forward guidance in a few weeks time. So far this fulcrum has been stable despite the massive market selloff from March. If this peg slips, the next selling bout will not be funny.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, October 23, 2015 6:08 AM | Reason: Not specified
lochaz-index
#1069 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 4:30:33 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
Snooping the stocks section and I see this, Guest (96), hisah. Bear winter gaining traction.

@mnandii read this article ICPAK introduces strict regulations for external auditors

I foresee an auditing firm getting sacrificed as the bear gets muscular. That will send more shockwaves in the market as the affected listed firms are forced into restatements may be spanning more than two yrs! Restatements in the banking sector will crash the market!

Meanwhile the market awaits mpesa bank H1 and forward guidance in a few weeks time. So far this fulcrum has been stable despite the massive market selloff from March. If this peg slips, the next selling bout will not be funny.


Very interesting development. Nse firms on the receiving end both from the auditors and Cbk. Hope this means minimal fudging of books which is very rampant in a bear.

Of particular interest will be the bonds. Shifting from 'mark to market' to 'held to maturity' helped goose eps numbers for banks the last time the bear showed up. Cbk, I believe put in place a rule against that.... Lets see if they can enforce it together with the auditors.

Most likely PKF will be on the chopping board-the others have too much muscle.

The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Boris Boyka
#1070 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 10:00:39 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
mnandii wrote:
With the bear market underway it is time we did some Socionomic forecasts. This exercise may appear frivolous but it shows the utility of The Wave Principle and Socionomics. The character of social events can be predicted and this may mean the difference between life and death; economic well-being and financial ruin.

THE EXPECTED CHARACTER OF EVENTS IN WAZUA IN THE ENSUING BEAR MARKET:

1. Increasingly many wazuans will be 'usered'.

2. Wazuans will increasingly attack each other viciously in posts.

3. Lady wazuans are more likely to start/comment on threads

4. Technical analysts whose posts are bearish will face increasing attacks.

5. In the political sections distinct camps will emerge with sharply divided ideologies esp. Pro jubilee Vs Opposition.

6. Many wazuans will become deeply religious.

7. admin will have a difficult time moderating discussions.

8. Increasing number of wazuans will start/increase consumption of alcoholic beverages.

9. The number of wazuans visiting coffee shops ( Java House, Dormans etc) will reduce.

10. Several vocal commentators on stocks will become silent or increasingly and openly hostile.

11. Obscenities in posts will increase.

12. Small differences of opinion will escalate.

13. The popularity of violent sports e.g. football and boxing will increase.

14. Many more wazuans will regard the government as being incompetent.

15. Discussions of gossip/scandals will increase.

16. Increasing number of wazuans will become superstitious.

@Limanika Kindly pay attention to bold.
Good night brother. @Mnadii thanks for this having been here in advance otherwise I would be seeing "cha mtema kuni, ningekula mawe, ningekufa" smile
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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