wazua Mon, Mar 23, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

372 Pages«<104105106107108>»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
lochaz-index
#1051 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 1:13:22 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
hisah wrote:
@VVS- the NSE20 historical data is up to 1997. From this 18yr data the chart pattern is as shown below.

@mnandii, SPT, sparkly the trendline break down is worse than I thought!!! There is a long term trendline (14yr) from the 2002 low in August which was the pin off for the Kibaki bull. This trendline has also been broken by the 2015 selloff! We may need to start preparing for a longer bear period! May be for 2 - 3yrs of sideways market action as the market tries to find a floor. A lot of wanjikus will flee from the investor forum towards club SK.

2 - 3yrs of accumulation will be paradise for value investors smile @aguy, VVS will your wallets be able to buy continuously for 3yrs smile

Strong support lies around 3000 - 3300 level as well as 2300 - 2500. If these are breached it's an airpocket all the way towards 1900 then 1400!! Unless there is a war I don't see these levels printing.



Sad
This is it @hisah.One of the best long term charts. Can you see the double top?Yet the Dow, S&P,FTSE 100 and nikkei are still retracing before the fall. God knows what becomes of the NSE20 when the main rout kicks in.


I came across some absolutely startling data on the S&P companies. Revenues of the firms in the index have grown by 26% since the GFC whereas the EPS'S have done...... wait for it..... 230%. In other words the top line leaps by 26% and the bottom line does a humongous 230%.

Massive share buybacks have really distorted the outlook on most if not all the counters. It would seem the same has also occurred in Europe and Japan. The upcoming crash will not be laughable.

As for our dear NSE, sub 2000 is the most likely destination. Bad macro economic conditions coupled with international turmoil will break its proverbial back. At 3900, the market has already shed 1600 points and the big global indices (with the exception of a few) have barely flinched.

The sovereign debt bubble is yet to be pricked. Ginormous banks in the mould of Deutsche Bank and credit suisse are in trouble courtesy of the commodity melt down. If you add sovereign defaults to the matrix then the GFC will be childs play when juxtaposed with what's currently unfolding.


The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Back to top
  |
lochaz-index
#1052 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 1:45:27 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
hisah wrote:
The only way the bull will return after such an ugly break down is massive PPT action.

Politics being politics I don't see treasury saving KES while the economy goes to the dogs. The negative civil fabric sentiments will force politicians to seek the easiest way out. Print print print inflation be damned. That massive liquidity injection into the economy is what will recharge the bulls.

For now the fight is on their table, which choice will they take inflation or deflation. I expect them to take inflation. The repercussions of deflation are worse than inflation especially with elections around the corner.



Not any soonSad Blame it on Eurobond & the IMF loans in USD. So brace yourself for a long spell of high interest rates. I see the thread on Tbills is quite active. We had warned guys during the bull in the maxed out thread about this. And we will see post 25% on T/bills. People should forget ever seeing the dollar at sub 100!


Treasury is in a fine mess. Kra will most likely collect sub one trillion in revenues for the current financial year. We have upwards of 600b due in 2016. So before you factor in both domestic and international deficit funding, we only have 400b(at best) to fund both recurrent and development expenditure.

External debt will be sought at a bigger premium courtesy of the latest downgrade and more downgrades will quickly follow meaning more expensive debt.

Domestic debt aka tbills and bonds are also getting unmanageable by the day. Going by the latest trend of the government sucking up any money thrown at it means the rates will be heading north.

How they will pay back all these debts while facing dwindling revenues and at the same time finance the budget is a mystery.

Deflation makes debt very nasty/pronounced so cbk will have to play a trick shot( genius of the governor notwithstanding, this may not be achievable) or print money.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#1053 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 2:05:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
@VVS- the NSE20 historical data is up to 1997. I asked KNBS for the NSE data sometime back but they told me they don't have! We should have historical data dating from Independence. From this 18yr data the chart pattern is as shown below.

@mnandii, SPT, sparkly the trendline break down is worse than I thought!!! There is a long term trendline (14yr) from the 2002 low in August which was the pin off for the Kibaki bull. This trendline has also been broken by the 2015 selloff! We may need to start preparing for a longer bear period! May be for 2 - 3yrs of sideways market action as the market tries to find a floor. A lot of wanjikus will flee from the investor forum towards club SK. True Socionomics. I suspect though that it is not only wanjikus who'll get slaughtered.

2 - 3yrs of accumulation will be paradise for value investors smile @aguy, VVS will your wallets be able to buy continuously for 3yrs smile Hopefully banks and Insurance Companies will not collapse with people's money. Imperial Bank should be a lesson to take seriously. Imagine waking up one day and you find you can't access your life's savings! Guys should not go to bed with the simple excuse that it is the board which informed CBK about fraud in the bank. This simply means that CBK, in all its supervisory glory, was caught napping!! What else are they blind to in other banks?

Strong support lies around 3000 - 3300 level as well as 2300 - 2500. If these are breached it's an airpocket all the way towards 1900 then 1400!! Unless there is a war I don't see these levels printing. If the market falls that far we should expect war. You can imagine the number of angry people who will have lost their life's savings. Such people have nothing to lose and easily engage in war.


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Saturday, October 17, 2015 2:07 PM | Reason: Typo
mnandii
#1054 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 2:13:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
hisah wrote:
The only way the bull will return after such an ugly break down is massive PPT action.

Politics being politics I don't see treasury saving KES while the economy goes to the dogs. The negative civil fabric sentiments will force politicians to seek the easiest way out. Print print print inflation be damned. That massive liquidity injection into the economy is what will recharge the bulls.

For now the fight is on their table, which choice will they take inflation or deflation. I expect them to take inflation. The repercussions of deflation are worse than inflation especially with elections around the corner.



Not any soonSad Blame it on Eurobond & the IMF loans in USD. So brace yourself for a long spell of high interest rates. I see the thread on Tbills is quite active. We had warned guys during the bull in the maxed out thread about this. And we will see post 25% on T/bills. People should forget ever seeing the dollar at sub 100!


I actually expect the dollar at sub 100.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#1055 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 2:21:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
lochaz-index wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
hisah wrote:
@VVS- the NSE20 historical data is up to 1997. From this 18yr data the chart pattern is as shown below.

@mnandii, SPT, sparkly the trendline break down is worse than I thought!!! There is a long term trendline (14yr) from the 2002 low in August which was the pin off for the Kibaki bull. This trendline has also been broken by the 2015 selloff! We may need to start preparing for a longer bear period! May be for 2 - 3yrs of sideways market action as the market tries to find a floor. A lot of wanjikus will flee from the investor forum towards club SK.

2 - 3yrs of accumulation will be paradise for value investors smile @aguy, VVS will your wallets be able to buy continuously for 3yrs smile

Strong support lies around 3000 - 3300 level as well as 2300 - 2500. If these are breached it's an airpocket all the way towards 1900 then 1400!! Unless there is a war I don't see these levels printing.



Sad
This is it @hisah.One of the best long term charts. Can you see the double top?Yet the Dow, S&P,FTSE 100 and nikkei are still retracing before the fall. God knows what becomes of the NSE20 when the main rout kicks in.


I came across some absolutely startling data on the S&P companies. Revenues of the firms in the index have grown by 26% since the GFC whereas the EPS'S have done...... wait for it..... 230%. In other words the top line leaps by 26% and the bottom line does a humongous 230%.

Massive share buybacks have really distorted the outlook on most if not all the counters. It would seem the same has also occurred in Europe and Japan. The upcoming crash will not be laughable.

As for our dear NSE, sub 2000 is the most likely destination. Bad macro economic conditions coupled with international turmoil will break its proverbial back. At 3900, the market has already shed 1600 points and the big global indices (with the exception of a few) have barely flinched.

The sovereign debt bubble is yet to be pricked. Ginormous banks in the mould of Deutsche Bank and credit suisse are in trouble courtesy of the commodity melt down. If you add sovereign defaults to the matrix then the GFC will be childs play when juxtaposed with what's currently unfolding.




Your source is quite good @lochaz !
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#1056 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 2:29:19 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
lochaz-index wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
hisah wrote:
The only way the bull will return after such an ugly break down is massive PPT action.

Politics being politics I don't see treasury saving KES while the economy goes to the dogs. The negative civil fabric sentiments will force politicians to seek the easiest way out. Print print print inflation be damned. That massive liquidity injection into the economy is what will recharge the bulls.

For now the fight is on their table, which choice will they take inflation or deflation. I expect them to take inflation. The repercussions of deflation are worse than inflation especially with elections around the corner.



Not any soonSad Blame it on Eurobond & the IMF loans in USD. So brace yourself for a long spell of high interest rates. I see the thread on Tbills is quite active. We had warned guys during the bull in the maxed out thread about this. And we will see post 25% on T/bills. People should forget ever seeing the dollar at sub 100!


Treasury is in a fine mess. Kra will most likely collect sub one trillion in revenues for the current financial year. We have upwards of 600b due in 2016. So before you factor in both domestic and international deficit funding, we only have 400b(at best) to fund both recurrent and development expenditure.

External debt will be sought at a bigger premium courtesy of the latest downgrade and more downgrades will quickly follow meaning more expensive debt.

Domestic debt aka tbills and bonds are also getting unmanageable by the day. Going by the latest trend of the government sucking up any money thrown at it means the rates will be heading north.

How they will pay back all these debts while facing dwindling revenues and at the same time finance the budget is a mystery.

Deflation makes debt very nasty/pronounced so cbk will have to play a trick shot( genius of the governor notwithstanding, this may not be achievable) or print money.


Applause

Bingo! We are actually in the very early stages of a big mess which alot of people don't see. Their limbic systems prevent them from seeing the big picture. People will panic when it is too late. Pray
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
lochaz-index
#1057 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 2:37:12 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
@VVS- the NSE20 historical data is up to 1997. From this 18yr data the chart pattern is as shown below.

@mnandii, SPT, sparkly the trendline break down is worse than I thought!!! There is a long term trendline (14yr) from the 2002 low in August which was the pin off for the Kibaki bull. This trendline has also been broken by the 2015 selloff! We may need to start preparing for a longer bear period! May be for 2 - 3yrs of sideways market action as the market tries to find a floor. A lot of wanjikus will flee from the investor forum towards club SK.

2 - 3yrs of accumulation will be paradise for value investors smile @aguy, VVS will your wallets be able to buy continuously for 3yrs smile

Strong support lies around 3000 - 3300 level as well as 2300 - 2500. If these are breached it's an airpocket all the way towards 1900 then 1400!! Unless there is a war I don't see these levels printing.


@hisah [Please bear with me coz I am no Chartist] Shouldn't the rise start since the index has breached the trendline that started from the lowest point of 2002 and subsequent low points?
As a fundamentalist - in a good way non-threatening way - I see the 'weakness' as a reaction to the poor economic fundamentals.
1) High short-term [T-Bill] rates coupled with good IFB/T-Bond rates means many investors would prefer the risk of certainty of high rates over the uncertainty of 3% dividends & possible capital appreciation of shares.
2) Those who borrow [or use margin] for shares/investment will cut back substantially as interest rates rise. Also firms that want to do takeovers need to weigh the cash returns/costs vs the purchase of another firm.
3) Revenue & profit growth are often driven by expansion but this will be dialed back as costs increase. Some may even sell productive assets.
Kenol isn't expanding as much as it could as it pays down debt. Total without the support of Papa Total would be in deep trouble.
ARM will face headwinds when the Convertible Debt comes due i.e. potentially a larger dilution than Paunrana expected.
Tranny is screwed coz who is going to lend/give them money to pay off the Bond?
KQ's expansion plans are on hold despite the cash from Afreximbank & GoK. Sale of Embakasi land.
EABL selling off land & Central Glass to reduce debt.

BTW, for those cash-rich firms, the future is bright. High interest income, the ability to buy assets on the cheap, muscle out competition thanks to working capital.

I think the destination is the same for both our approaches. I am trying to figure out why you say you can time whereas I have utterly failed to time the inflection points.

Timing a market is futile. They reason I state it could take 2 - 3yrs of buying (sideways market) is due to the significant break down of bullish sentiments. Treasury and CBK are not reading from the same script. Poor investment environment with EA going into an elections will present fat discounts.
Globally the junk bond market is very frothy. If markets get spooked as the unwind triggers I wonder how NSE will fair together with other frontier and emerging markets. Cash rich firms will swallow the weaklings. Banking consolidation I had mentioned a while back will also happen.

The treasury chaos plus the soon to come global junk bond turmoil present bullish barriers for KE equities. Unless stimulus is injected in KE economy, bulls have no energy to steady the market mood currently.


Indeed. Cash-rich firms will hold up a lot better in this bear and come out flying when bulls return. Debt heavy counters will be pummeled to a pulp.

That said, a 2-3 years sideways market at the bottom is just what the doctor prescribed. Huge discount window it will become and so will be the corresponding returns.

When things go bonkers, capital eschews outsize returns in favour of safety. So both frontier and emerging markets will be squeezed badly. The selloff has started in earnest.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#1058 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 2:58:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
With the bear market underway it is time we did some Socionomic forecasts. This exercise may appear frivolous but it shows the utility of The Wave Principle and Socionomics. The character of social events can be predicted and this may mean the difference between life and death; economic well-being and financial ruin.

THE EXPECTED CHARACTER OF EVENTS IN WAZUA IN THE ENSUING BEAR MARKET:

1. Increasingly many wazuans will be 'usered'.

2. Wazuans will increasingly attack each other viciously in posts.

3. Lady wazuans are more likely to start/comment on threads

4. Technical analysts whose posts are bearish will face increasing attacks.

5. In the political sections distinct camps will emerge with sharply divided ideologies esp. Pro jubilee Vs Opposition.

6. Many wazuans will become deeply religious.

7. admin will have a difficult time moderating discussions.

8. Increasing number of wazuans will start/increase consumption of alcoholic beverages.

9. The number of wazuans visiting coffee shops ( Java House, Dormans etc) will reduce.

10. Several vocal commentators on stocks will become silent or increasingly and openly hostile.

11. Obscenities in posts will increase.

12. Small differences of opinion will escalate.

13. The popularity of violent sports e.g. football and boxing will increase.

14. Many more wazuans will regard the government as being incompetent.

15. Discussions of gossip/scandals will increase.

16. Increasing number of wazuans will become superstitious.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
sparkly
#1059 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 3:38:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
17. Blue section will become increasingly lonely.
18. @stocksmaster will resurface
Life is short. Live passionately.
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#1060 Posted : Saturday, October 17, 2015 3:44:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Watch to see an example of what happens when a stock market goes down vs when it goes up.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
372 Pages«<104105106107108>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Investor Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.