I have heard a lot of excitement from Kalenjin nation about the inevitable presidency of William Ruto in 2022. To be fair to Kalenjin nation, there are also loud expressions, from Kikuyu nation, of commitment to deliver presidency to William Ruto come 2022.
Does all these pass smell test? The answer is NO! Here are my reasons.
Reason: 1. Kikuyu nation will not support Ruto because they can win in 2022 without Kalenjin nation
Kikuyu nation can win presidency in 2022 without the support of Kalenjin nation, Kalenjin nation on the other hand cannot win presidency without the support of Kikuyu nation. Because of this imbalance Kikuyu nation will be stupid to handover presidency when they don’t have to.
In games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player always takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them.
The optimal outcome for Kikuyu nation is to have presidency again in 2022 and they’ll take that decision not because they can’t support a non-kikuyu but because every human being will take similar decision under the similar circumstances.
Reason: 2. Gentlemen agreements are always, as expected not honored and it’s not personal
Gentlemen agreements are meant not to be honored not only in politics but also in business. This is a phenomenon that has been studied widely; it’s also a very important aspect that makes the world work better. It’s no surprise that MOU are never honored, it not because Kikuyu nation is dishonest it is because the interest of every player making gentlemen agreement is to maximize the outcome for themselves.
Math and economics has somehow explained why gentlemen agreements are not honor in studies like dominance, backward induction, Nash equilibrium, evolutionary stability, commitment, credibility, asymmetric information, adverse selection
Kikuyu nation will not honor the agreement to support Ruto in 2022 because even science do not support it and at the end of the day their strategists will sit down and relay on science to make decisions. That decision is predictable.
Reason: 3. a possible winning coalition outside Jubilee is impossible
Because Kalenjin nation cannot win alone, the other path Ruto can take is to form a coalition of his own. As Kenya politics stand, Ruto will have to combine with Luhya Nation and Kamba Nation in order to form a strong enough coalition to win presidency. Combine with both Nations will leave Kikuyu nation without a potential partner; however, games of strategy will tell you that either of the two potential partners will be better off taking number 2 position in a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation than number 3 position in a coalition formed by Kalenjin nation.
Reason: 4. even an improbable coalition with RAO as the DP and Ruto as President will not win
Kikuyu nation has two advantages that are hard to overcome in 2017 and 2022, the incumbency advantage and the advantage that comes with being the largest and the most sold voting bloc. Addition of one partner will win them the election regardless of who the partner is. The challenge for opponents of Kikuyu nation voting bloc is that they not only have to form a coalition of their own but they also must keep others from forming a coalition with Kikuyu nation.
Given what we know, Kikuyu nation will not have a problem finding a partner and the opponents will have a lot of problems keeping partners away from Kikuyu nation.
Reason: 5 No coalition can beat a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation and Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not the lead.
Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not led by their own not because they can’t support other tribes but because it doesn’t make any logical sense. In a games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player, as expected, will takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them. Kikuyu nation should not apologize or be scorned for picking the logical choice and optimizing the outcome for themselves.
Moral Lesson: The largest tribe or an incumbent will win every election until we stop voting along tribal blocs.
As long as we still have Kalenjin nation, Kamba nation, Kikuyu nation, Luo nation, Luhya nation and Coast nation voting blocs. Kikuyu nation will win because they are the largest tribe and they hold incumbency advantage. Kikuyu nation should not apologize for it because this is a game of numbers and game of strategy, they have an advantage and they have a right to use it.
For all the other losing nations, the only legal way to win presidency is to dissolve tribal voting blocs and integrate the country into one, otherwise this is a race for Deputy Presidency and the smaller/weaker coalition partner. William Ruto and Kalenjin nation will understand this in 2022.