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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#991 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 9:35:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mnandii wrote:
hisah wrote:
Tech/cartoon readings
I wonder if wazuans understand that NSE20 break below 4080 and 4000 handle is really significant! All that 2014 massive volume in numerous counters has erased most gains from 2012! Oversize distribution.

4000 - 4100 support zone is very significant since the long term trendline from the GFC low rebound at 2360 was clustered there. Breaking such a long term support trendline in the cartoon world is an ugly event that warns on pending further downside! The 2yr trendline broke down then the 4yr trendline broke down and now the 7yr trendline has broken down! The bears are getting muscular forcing through these breaks in just 8 months! @SPT, mnandii this is why I referenced "the trouble with the euro chart in forex" when NSE20 broke down the 4yr support trendline in a similar fashion.

4000 strong support is now turning into a resistance (selling) zone for the bulls. Bulls need to put up a one heck of a fight to maintain this level as bullish support since selling is overpowering buying hands down.

Fundies reading
I hope the market capitulates soon so that we can start forming a floor. This slow motion leakage is not helping in testing for a floor layer before the base forms once the bears are full and go into hibernation. But before we base out treasury needs to get its head back on! Absolute chaos in the money market, which has slammed instant brakes on the econ! A time is coming when treasury will be forced into a stimulus spree; inflation be damned! It's easier to deal with inflation than deflation.


Things are ugly this early! I wonder how the gov will cope once NSE 20 Share Index starts probing sub-3000 levels. These are the times when the president wishes he was not the president.

True guys, the breakdown of the 7 year trendline is VERY SIGNIFICANT!!(Trouble with the Euro chart comes to mind)
Capitulation will happen on completion of the current retracement in the major markets. This is the time you wish you could short the indices i.e NSE 20.
@SufficientlyP
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kasibitta
#992 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 10:23:01 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/7/2014
Posts: 155
Too much happening too fast. Where to now?
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mnandii
#993 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 10:39:05 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mnandii wrote:
hisah wrote:
Tech/cartoon readings
I wonder if wazuans understand that NSE20 break below 4080 and 4000 handle is really significant! All that 2014 massive volume in numerous counters has erased most gains from 2012! Oversize distribution.

4000 - 4100 support zone is very significant since the long term trendline from the GFC low rebound at 2360 was clustered there. Breaking such a long term support trendline in the cartoon world is an ugly event that warns on pending further downside! The 2yr trendline broke down then the 4yr trendline broke down and now the 7yr trendline has broken down! The bears are getting muscular forcing through these breaks in just 8 months! @SPT, mnandii this is why I referenced "the trouble with the euro chart in forex" when NSE20 broke down the 4yr support trendline in a similar fashion.

4000 strong support is now turning into a resistance (selling) zone for the bulls. Bulls need to put up a one heck of a fight to maintain this level as bullish support since selling is overpowering buying hands down.

Fundies reading
I hope the market capitulates soon so that we can start forming a floor. This slow motion leakage is not helping in testing for a floor layer before the base forms once the bears are full and go into hibernation. But before we base out treasury needs to get its head back on! Absolute chaos in the money market, which has slammed instant brakes on the econ! A time is coming when treasury will be forced into a stimulus spree; inflation be damned! It's easier to deal with inflation than deflation.


Things are ugly this early! I wonder how the gov will cope once NSE 20 Share Index starts probing sub-3000 levels. These are the times when the president wishes he was not the president.

True guys, the breakdown of the 7 year trendline is VERY SIGNIFICANT!!(Trouble with the Euro chart comes to mind)
Capitulation will happen on completion of the current retracement in the major markets. This is the time you wish you could short the indices i.e NSE 20.


I was really looking forward to derivatives trading but our people are quite useless in terms of implementing plans. I wish there was a way to sack some of these non-performing actors in the NSE, CDSE, CMA
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#994 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 10:57:56 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
USDKES

We posted this chart of USDKES back when the pair was rising above 100 level and stated clearly that we don't expect the 106.80 level to be violated.



Well, so far the level has maintained. Wave 2 peaked at 106.70. Shown below:



While it is still early to declare a tradeable top, action in shorter Time Frames (15 min) show impulsive drop which is consistent with expectation once a corrective wave completes. I'll post a short term price chart later. My expectation now is for the pair to continue falling toward 100/- and slightly below before it effects a corrective rise below 106.70.

In this case we only used one basic Elliott wave Rule as depicted below for a bull market:



Image credit: Elliott Wave International.




$KES

Expecting the strengthening of the KES to continue. Should find a temporary bottom at 100 or slightly below.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Spikes
#995 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 12:27:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
NSE20 index has received mammoth support from Kengen thanks to material announcement of full year profit. It will be likely below 4000 if the telco will shed points today. If the Safcom gains then above 4000 is most likely. Ceteras Paribus .
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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lochaz-index
#996 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 12:29:35 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
mnandii wrote:
hisah wrote:
Tech/cartoon readings
I wonder if wazuans understand that NSE20 break below 4080 and 4000 handle is really significant! All that 2014 massive volume in numerous counters has erased most gains from 2012! Oversize distribution.

4000 - 4100 support zone is very significant since the long term trendline from the GFC low rebound at 2360 was clustered there. Breaking such a long term support trendline in the cartoon world is an ugly event that warns on pending further downside! The 2yr trendline broke down then the 4yr trendline broke down and now the 7yr trendline has broken down! The bears are getting muscular forcing through these breaks in just 8 months! @SPT, mnandii this is why I referenced "the trouble with the euro chart in forex" when NSE20 broke down the 4yr support trendline in a similar fashion.

4000 strong support is now turning into a resistance (selling) zone for the bulls. Bulls need to put up a one heck of a fight to maintain this level as bullish support since selling is overpowering buying hands down.

Fundies reading
I hope the market capitulates soon so that we can start forming a floor. This slow motion leakage is not helping in testing for a floor layer before the base forms once the bears are full and go into hibernation. But before we base out treasury needs to get its head back on! Absolute chaos in the money market, which has slammed instant brakes on the econ! A time is coming when treasury will be forced into a stimulus spree; inflation be damned! It's easier to deal with inflation than deflation.


Things are ugly this early! I wonder how the gov will cope once NSE 20 Share Index starts probing sub-3000 levels. These are the times when the president wishes he was not the president.


I think they may have already turned on the spigots. Inflation, Tbill, interbank and exchange rates all seem to suggest something is amiss.

Getting out of a debt trap has no other solution given the macro economic conditions. Print your way out of a deflation.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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hisah
#997 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 1:22:10 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Those holding banks.... sit tight...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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VituVingiSana
#998 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 1:32:52 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Imperial Bank down. This is a significantly large mid-tier bank. http://www.businessdaily...92/-/adljm1/-/index.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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cnn
#999 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 1:58:31 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
hisah wrote:
Those holding banks.... sit tight...

They are all being roasted in the NSE right now.
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mnandii
#1000 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 2:56:11 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
@VVS

Thanks for the challenge. It is not feasible however to do Elliott Wave analysis on the four counters you mention (KK, WTK, Kenya Re and I $ M Bank).

If you look at their charts they are nowhere near any Elliott Wave patterns. The explanation for this is simple.

Elliott Waves track human psychology. As such it works best where there is wide public participation e.g in the NSE 20 Share Index, $KES and Safaricom. These three are showing very good Elliott Patterns and thus the reason why I track them. In markets such as the USA individual stocks show clear Elliott Wave patterns e.g Apple stock below:



Image Courtesy Elliott Wave International


In the case of individual stocks in Kenya (other than Safaricom), value investing may work (obviously it has worked so far for you) upto a degree. Am saying this because in a deflationary environment (which I feel we have entered) almost all things lose value. A company may be good and with excellent management but if the people who are expected to drive up its share price are lacking in means then it becomes a matter of faith/hope to expect any worthwhile upside in the stock.

Please note that my earlier opinion was not meant to disparage your view of the market.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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