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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mnandii
#911 Posted : Friday, October 02, 2015 1:04:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
murchr wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Safaricom and Social Mood

Summary: Safaricom is at a historic top (Thus the latest attacks on Dominance). Don't hold this stock through the bear market. But if you insist on being long then prepare to be under water for at least one half and two years (or more Sad ).

Quote from Pioneering Studies in Socionomics pgs 158 -159.



Quote:

Direction of Causality

.....

The social mood shift that occurs at the transition from bull market to bear includes a change in general attitudes toward the financial success of others. Society moves from a feeling of support toward one of resentment.

During a bull market, the social mood is directed toward rewarding achievement; during a bear market, it is directed toward punishing it. The bear market mood begins to creep into collective thinking late in a bull market. Democratic governments are instruments of egalitarianism. At some point, their representatives cannot stand watching some companies succeed wildly more than most others. When the bull market reaches exhaustion, the old supportive mood begins to crumble, and the new punitive mood bursts forth. One result of this metamorphosis in social character is governmental attacks against highly successful enterprises. In fact, they typically start with a major attack against the most successful enterprise of the time.


Safaricom Named 'Best Managed Company' In Kenya

CA moves to Hire Market Dominance Consultant

Airtel Threatens Kenya Exit Over Safaricom 'Dominance'

Wangusi Backs Off Bid To Check Safaricom Dominance

Safaricom Dominance Splits Uhuru's Ministers


You missed this one. In any case, shouldn't people buy blue chip companies in a bear?





I believe the right time to buy is coming, but it is not now. Now is the time to fear (like your signature says.)
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#912 Posted : Friday, October 02, 2015 1:37:56 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Caution bulls. The next market raid will be swift!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Metasploit
#913 Posted : Friday, October 02, 2015 2:05:35 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
hisah wrote:
Caution bulls. The next market raid will be swift!


He he..Av seen it!

This one was too obvious..People chose to ignore

Watching the trend-setters # Safaricom and KCB

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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hisah
#914 Posted : Friday, October 02, 2015 7:44:28 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Metasploit wrote:
hisah wrote:
Caution bulls. The next market raid will be swift!


He he..Av seen it!

This one was too obvious..People chose to ignore

Watching the trend-setters # Safaricom and KCB

NSE20 closed at 4109. The retest of 4080 support is nigh. FTSE NSE15 and 25 weekly charts show weakness, which hints the retest of the Aug 27 low will fail!

Brace for the next slide...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#915 Posted : Saturday, October 03, 2015 12:09:35 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
hisah wrote:
Caution bulls. The next market raid will be swift!


He he..Av seen it!

This one was too obvious..People chose to ignore

Watching the trend-setters # Safaricom and KCB

NSE20 closed at 4109. The retest of 4080 support is nigh. FTSE NSE15 and 25 weekly charts show weakness, which hints the retest of the Aug 27 low will fail!

Brace for the next slide...


That bounce from 4080 to 4200 fooled many and it lasted, today the pain has already started... Is that ScanGroup at 27.50. Is that arm at 42. These have been the most over valued stocks for a long time and investors wondered why. Now Half the price before the bear and more to price decline to follow

These 2 should be in the golden Handcuffs saga as well.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Othelo
#916 Posted : Saturday, October 03, 2015 10:16:28 AM
Rank: User

Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
BAT, Jubilee & Limuru Tea has been holding on well, will they stay strong! Time will tell!
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Aguytrying
#917 Posted : Saturday, October 03, 2015 12:19:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Othelo wrote:
BAT, Jubilee & Limuru Tea has been holding on well, will they stay strong! Time will tell!


No!! They won't go down without a fight, but they will obey gravity eventually
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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lochaz-index
#918 Posted : Saturday, October 03, 2015 3:22:16 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
GDP grew by 5.5% in Q2 2015 which was similar to Q3 2014. If it posts a lower figure in Q3 2015(I expect it to be circa 4.8%)then it would imply we are in the early stages of a recession. Poorer Q4 2015 vs Q3 2015 metrics will all but confirm it.

Add an inverted yield curve and things do not look pretty for both the economy and stocks.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Spikes
#919 Posted : Sunday, October 04, 2015 12:16:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
As long as the metrics are trending Southward the stocks will keep shedding off value eroding investors wealth in NSE bourse. Credit crunch is knocking on most lucrative counters forcing short term investors to sit on cash or venture into T Bonds and Bills. ....this last quarter is MOST dangerous.....alternative sectors- specially money market is a better hedge against unpredictable returns in capital segment....As from tomorrow expecting Safcom to tank heavily to below kes 12 and financials KCB and EQUITY will swing dramatically beneath kes 40...Coop Bank has no exception likely to oscilirate towards kes Kes 16 .....Once they hit there...psychological lows will broken and NSE 20 share index gonna be on a free fall accelerating to below 3500 points abyss. Panic will spread following profit warnings coming soon thereby triggering rapid downward movement with immediate exponential upsurge in prices....but the drastic rise in NSE 20 share index will be shortlived.....Sit back and watch economic Tsunami is coming.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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winmak
#920 Posted : Sunday, October 04, 2015 1:17:51 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 539
Location: Nakuru
Spikes wrote:
As long as the metrics are trending Southward the stocks will keep shedding off value eroding investors wealth in NSE bourse. Credit crunch is knocking on most lucrative counters forcing short term investors to sit on cash or venture into T Bonds and Bills. ....this last quarter is MOST dangerous.....alternative sectors- specially money market is a better hedge against unpredictable returns in capital segment....As from tomorrow expecting Safcom to tank heavily to below kes 12 and financials KCB and EQUITY will swing dramatically beneath kes 40...Coop Bank has no exception likely to oscilirate towards kes Kes 16 .....Once they hit there...psychological lows will broken and NSE 20 share index gonna be on a free fall accelerating to below 3500 points abyss. Panic will spread following profit warnings coming soon thereby triggering rapid downward movement with immediate exponential upsurge in prices....but the drastic rise in NSE 20 share index will be shortlived.....Sit back and watch economic Tsunami is coming.



What exactly is happening tommorow to explain what you are predicting?
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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