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Aguytrying
#51 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 7:00:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@lochaz. Good points but please not this is a rear view mirror to judge value in the future. Because those profit dips are temporary and the market is unlikely to price them in to the extent I have priced down the past performance.

I'm more interested in the previous sustainable performance than the temporary profit dips in this bear list.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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lochaz-index
#52 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 9:51:46 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Aguytrying wrote:
@lochaz. Good points but please not this is a rear view mirror to judge value in the future. Because those profit dips are temporary and the market is unlikely to price them in to the extent I have priced down the past performance.

I'm more interested in the previous sustainable performance than the temporary profit dips in this bear list.


I see your point. What I was advocating for is the use of normalized eps to eliminate any cyclical gyrations and/or one off transactions.

In the figures posted you mostly used spot EPS of either 2013 or 2014 which could be misleading when looking for an entry point.

For example using centum's eps @10 and a PER of 7 gives you a price of 70bob. In britam's case eps is @1.31 applying a PER of 7 thats about 9bob. Both of these targets have a bullish/rosy bias due to either one or both of the reasons mentioned earlier and should the bear persist longer and hand bigger discounts/haircuts you will be in trouble....especially if can't stomach a loss.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Aguytrying
#53 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 10:55:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
lochaz-index wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@lochaz. Good points but please not this is a rear view mirror to judge value in the future. Because those profit dips are temporary and the market is unlikely to price them in to the extent I have priced down the past performance.

I'm more interested in the previous sustainable performance than the temporary profit dips in this bear list.


I see your point. What I was advocating for is the use of normalized eps to eliminate any cyclical gyrations and/or one off transactions.

In the figures posted you mostly used spot EPS of either 2013 or 2014 which could be misleading when looking for an entry point.

For example using centum's eps @10 and a PER of 7 gives you a price of 70bob. In britam's case eps is @1.31 applying a PER of 7 thats about 9bob. Both of these targets have a bullish/rosy bias due to either one or both of the reasons mentioned earlier and should the bear persist longer and hand bigger discounts/haircuts you will be in trouble....especially if can't stomach a loss.


Agreed normalized EPS would be ideal as it would water down those wide fluctuations in profits. Eg a five average. See I was struggling with the pe of stocks especially those on recovery eg kk, Bamburi. Or those that had major dips in 2014 eg crown berger ended up using 2013 eps. Normalisation would have sorted that out
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#54 Posted : Wednesday, September 23, 2015 3:12:20 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Museveni wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve.

Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre.

In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round.
Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now.

STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7 CURRENT PRICE

EQUITY 4.63 25-33 39.25
KCB 5.63 30-40 46.00
NIC 7.07 38-49 49.00
NSE 2.13 12-15 20.00
DTB 21.92 120-154 204.00
HFCK 2.75 15-20 21.50

JUBILEE 48 264-340 560.00
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43 67.00

SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE) 14.00
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely) 184.00
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS) 33.00

BAMBURI 9.80 98-130 154.00
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE) 8.50
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE) 295.00
ARM 3.01 30-45 61.00
BAT 42.55 300-450 741.00
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21 62.00
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7 7.50
BOC 11.76 65-85 133.00


That current price was on 5th august. Only two stocks are below the target price.

1. ARM today at 44.00!! was 61.00 just 7 wks ago!
2. NIC has been sub 48.00 for along time now. like 3 months.

HFCk has been hovering above 20.00. Now 21-22.
The other stocks are not very near.


The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Afroblk
#55 Posted : Monday, September 28, 2015 11:32:13 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 3/3/2010
Posts: 79
I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.

Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)

KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52

My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;

KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85

As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.

I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.

Good Luck!
Knowledge is contagious...Infect truth!
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, September 28, 2015 11:42 PM | Reason: add info
Aguytrying
#56 Posted : Tuesday, September 29, 2015 11:00:51 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Afroblk wrote:
I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.

Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)

KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52

My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;

KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85

As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.

I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.

Good Luck!


All the best. My thoughts Your investment period looks a bit short, also, quite optimistic exit prices for HFCK, CENTUM. but you never know
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mulla
#57 Posted : Tuesday, September 29, 2015 11:30:16 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/15/2013
Posts: 301
I also think there may be abit more downside on some of your target counters eg HF,Centum,Britam plus exit prices abit optimistic as aguytrying mentions.....lakini make your own decisions that's my take..
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Cornelius Vanderbilt
#58 Posted : Wednesday, September 30, 2015 10:34:07 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/15/2015
Posts: 817
Come ON come oN Come ON come oN . what is wrong with this bull? nini mbaya na hi ngombe? hebu tuisukume ianze kuenda mbele.Note the black lines
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, September 30, 2015 10:35 AM | Reason: Not specified
doubletap
#59 Posted : Wednesday, September 30, 2015 10:55:10 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/17/2014
Posts: 132
Location: Wherethewindblows
Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:
Come ON come oN Come ON come oN . what is wrong with this bull? nini mbaya na hi ngombe? hebu tuisukume ianze kuenda mbele.Note the black lines



For those of us who are clueless about charts (mbuzi ama ni kondoo?) black lines are the lowest points and you want us to push it up ama down? and how do we do that?Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else - Albert Einstein
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Fyatu
#60 Posted : Wednesday, September 30, 2015 4:45:37 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
This bear is not kali enough. I remember the days when bears were bears...when panafric was sub-30
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, September 30, 2015 4:46 PM | Reason: Not specified
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