Sept closes @4189. Dismal bounce from the year low @4080. The weak bounce was due to selling pause, not solid buying. Like I've stated before, the real test is whether 4080 will hold as the test is coming. A break down will crater the remaining bulls. The money market short end fat rates should already warn the equity bulls that the next selling bout will likely overpower buying.
Mpesa bank has surprised my expectation by not breaking sub 13 level. Buyers have been aggressive defending this zone.
KES volatility has slowed down, but the weakness still lingers and remains above 100/$. Profit warnings will continue to weaken KES as the econ slump worsens.
The buyers market is still here for a while. Cherry picking is now the challenge. I continue to fancy the bamburi bear shelter while awaiting kengen/kplc results.
My golden handcuffs call still remains and I expect britam to break below the year low. Centum has too many rosy headlines; perfect trap for more selling! Eqty bounce still remains weak and now thin sim/telco setup is not a punchline!
The market will always travel against the majority otherwise it'd seize to function! It must have a constant supply of many losers to pay/reward the few winners. This is how financial markets work! It's very difficult to make outsize gains by following what's popular. A good buying time will be towards election time when the negative sentiments will be ripe. But human psychology weakness makes it very hard for many to be contrarian in the markets in order to survive...
Let's see how Q4 decides the year closure...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!