hisah wrote:snipermnoma wrote:hisah wrote:snipermnoma wrote:hisah wrote:Bounce progress as expected. The real test will be if 4000 will hold on the next nosedive episode. That level has to hold if bulls are to survive!
Global equities are still undecided, but I expect another downside episode soon.
Meanwhile USD to Kes. has been hovered around 105 for two weeks (one might say at least Kes is not sliding but with all the intervention why is it not improving either?)
In the same two weeks NSE 20 has been in a narrow band 4125 to 4260.
today 91 T-bill rate at 14.486%, higher than 182 T-bill which is at 13.861% and higher than the coupon on most bonds.
This points to a recovery without legs. The steam will run out soon. I agree with @hisah 4000 will be tested with support at 3930.79 as per @mnandii
post The money market is signalling stress! Interbank rate is above 20% again like in August while the 182 and 364 day tbills are getting undersubscribed. Nobody willing to pack money there at the current rates as 91 day rate is almost vaulting the 364 day rate! The dread inverted yield curve is almost striking home! A clear recession sign as liquidity squeeze continues. @hisah What a difference a week can make...and it came to pass 91 T-bill rate at 18.607% subscription 128%
(link), higher than 182 at 14.551% subscription 5.31%, 364 at 16.301% subscription 11.31%
(link). 1yr bond is 19.062% coupon
(link). Meanwhile Interbank at 25.6398%. This points to stocks heading south.
Liquidity vacuum! CBK is sitting on very sharp needles and attempting to smile! Yet most banks are profitable without liquidity this year!? Someone is applying thick layers of very glossy lipstick to look attractive!
Econ macros out of sync and now vapour liquidity, this is now beyond profit warnings window. Aicaramba! Yup, no arbitrages here. USD/KES bulls scoped?
More Bearish outlook for banks. Similar to Naija. The hustle for deposits beckons, NIM squeeze a given;
Treasury migrates ministry accounts to online platforms Quote:The Treasury early this year ordered all State corporations and agencies to surrender billions of shillings held in commercial banks as surplus cash to CBK.
The order β part of measures to help curb unnecessary borrowing β obligates government ministries, and State agencies and corporations to ensure that all their cash-flow requirements are handled through a single account hosted by the CBK.
The Treasury said State corporations and agencies were holding huge sums of surplus cash in short-term bank deposits or funds invested in Treasury bills and bonds even as they continued to receive regular budgetary allocations.
http://www.businessdaily.../-/fc700nz/-/index.html
Banks seen relying on transaction fees as margins shrink Particularly concerned about CFC, BBK & SCBK. Under invested in this regard.
On the flip, thinking of cash flush low debt like BAMB & Scan to capitalize on these rates. Rollover paradise!