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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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hisah
#861 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2015 2:13:41 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
snipermnoma wrote:
hisah wrote:
Bounce progress as expected. The real test will be if 4000 will hold on the next nosedive episode. That level has to hold if bulls are to survive!

Global equities are still undecided, but I expect another downside episode soon.


Meanwhile USD to Kes. has been hovered around 105 for two weeks (one might say at least Kes is not sliding but with all the intervention why is it not improving either?)

In the same two weeks NSE 20 has been in a narrow band 4125 to 4260.

today 91 T-bill rate at 14.486%, higher than 182 T-bill which is at 13.861% and higher than the coupon on most bonds.

This points to a recovery without legs. The steam will run out soon. I agree with @hisah 4000 will be tested with support at 3930.79 as per @mnandii post

The money market is signalling stress! Interbank rate is above 20% again like in August while the 182 and 364 day tbills are getting undersubscribed. Nobody willing to pack money there at the current rates as 91 day rate is almost vaulting the 364 day rate! The dread inverted yield curve is almost striking home! A clear recession sign as liquidity squeeze continues.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Akenyan2014
#862 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2015 9:50:41 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/6/2014
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
hisah wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
hisah wrote:
Bounce progress as expected. The real test will be if 4000 will hold on the next nosedive episode. That level has to hold if bulls are to survive!

Global equities are still undecided, but I expect another downside episode soon.


Meanwhile USD to Kes. has been hovered around 105 for two weeks (one might say at least Kes is not sliding but with all the intervention why is it not improving either?)

In the same two weeks NSE 20 has been in a narrow band 4125 to 4260.

today 91 T-bill rate at 14.486%, higher than 182 T-bill which is at 13.861% and higher than the coupon on most bonds.

This points to a recovery without legs. The steam will run out soon. I agree with @hisah 4000 will be tested with support at 3930.79 as per @mnandii post

The money market is signalling stress! Interbank rate is above 20% again like in August while the 182 and 364 day tbills are getting undersubscribed. Nobody willing to pack money there at the current rates as 91 day rate is almost vaulting the 364 day rate! The dread inverted yield curve is almost striking home! A clear recession sign as liquidity squeeze continues.


True, if you can be cited in an authoritative daily for porfolio worth kshs 40,000 then you know where we are headed.
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DBLyon
#863 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2015 10:18:25 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/28/2014
Posts: 149
Location: Nairobi
Akenyan2014 wrote:


True, if you can be cited in an authoritative daily for porfolio worth kshs 40,000 then you know where we are headed.


Akenyan2014...what are you on about? In English, please?
When you live for others' opinions, you are dead.

- Carlos Slim Helu
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TheGeek
#864 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2015 4:37:05 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/3/2014
Posts: 245
This week the Central Bank of Kenya offered 91-day Treasury Bills for a total of Kshs.4 Billion. The total number of bids received was 215 amounting to Kshs.3.78 Billion, representing a subscription of 94.53 %. Total bids accepted amounted to Kshs.3.06 Billion.The market weighted average rate was 15.167 %, and the weighted average of accepted bids which will be applied for non-competitive bids was 14.486% up from 13.858% in the previous auction.

Download the summarised auction statistics in PDF.

A Not a bad place to park your loot your loot waiting for the bottom.
In the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, September 18, 2015 4:38 PM | Reason: Not specified
Gatheuzi
#865 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2015 5:57:24 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
DBLyon wrote:
Akenyan2014 wrote:


True, if you can be cited in an authoritative daily for porfolio worth kshs 40,000 then you know where we are headed.


Akenyan2014...what are you on about? In English, please?


@DBLyon you need to open the link and read how a Sudan Prof is the tenth largest foreign owner of Eveready for having bought 13,200 shared valued at 40K Laughing out loudly

Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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murchr
#866 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2015 6:06:36 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Gatheuzi wrote:
DBLyon wrote:
Akenyan2014 wrote:


True, if you can be cited in an authoritative daily for porfolio worth kshs 40,000 then you know where we are headed.


Akenyan2014...what are you on about? In English, please?


@DBLyon you need to open the link and read how a Sudan Prof is the tenth largest foreign owner of Eveready for having bought 13,200 shared valued at 40K Laughing out loudly



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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enyands
#867 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2015 8:21:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,301
Location: kenya
murchr wrote:
Gatheuzi wrote:
DBLyon wrote:
Akenyan2014 wrote:


True, if you can be cited in an authoritative daily for porfolio worth kshs 40,000 then you know where we are headed.


Akenyan2014...what are you on about? In English, please?


@DBLyon you need to open the link and read how a Sudan Prof is the tenth largest foreign owner of Eveready for having bought 13,200 shared valued at 40K Laughing out loudly



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly



@murchir this is serious bro πŸ˜†πŸ˜†πŸ˜† . I wish I could do the same just to be seen as one of majority shareholder this has made my Friday
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Ericsson
#868 Posted : Saturday, September 19, 2015 7:10:46 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Stupid journalism by business daily;to post this nonsense staff on the newspaper.Kwani hakuna business news and the way I see foreign media have captivating news about kenya
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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mnandii
#869 Posted : Saturday, September 19, 2015 12:35:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
In the coming weeks I expect NSE 20 Share Index to drop significantly below 4000 level. Sad

Socionomically, it is interesting that the big drop from 5499 level made in March, 2015 to the 4080 lows now has created problems for the government. The KE gov. lost its case against teachers in the courts, teachers dug in and are on strike, the gov. responded by closing schools (including private ones, thereby opening a new 'war front' with a different category of the populace). The opposition has announced impeachment proceedings against the government...

Expect similar and even worse situations going forward as the bear market catches steam.


This is what we have always maintained. When the stock market drops significantly, expect political, economic and other social ills including war. If the stock market rises, implying an elevation in social mood, expect good economic performance, a generally 'happy' populace, increased investment, peace etc.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#870 Posted : Saturday, September 19, 2015 12:58:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Erh! Ahem!

I think this worry about USDKES exchange rate is misplaced. Me believes there is no way the previous high of 108 Kes to USD will be breached. Kes will rise strongly against the USD soon!



I had posted this chart of the Exchange rate earlier this year. By then I was looking for the Kes to weaken.



The weakness should complete soon. Then we go below 70 Kes to 1 Dollar. smile

Actually, the reason I say 108 level shld not be broken is the wave 1 in the chart (which I label as impulse). The fall from the all-time high of 108 to about 82 is clearly an impulse wave. The weakness in the Kes we are experiencing now is a wave 2, a counter-trend rally. Second waves can never retrace more than 100% of first waves!

So, expect Kes to strengthen against the Dollar in the coming months.

NB: Another good reason why I don't expect 108 to be breached is the mood surrounding the weakening shilling. Everybody is crying and lamenting how the future for the Kes is bleak. smile

This is pre-requisite for a turn! Drool



In focus.


Stated June 19th, 2015


mnandii wrote:


I continue to consider that USDKES should not reach 106.80 level.


Stated July 12th, 2015.

Corrections can be long and messy. Looking for USDKES to cross below 100 soon. As always, IF, and that is a BIG if, the pair surpasses 106.80 then we'll reconsider the wave count.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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