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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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obiero
#831 Posted : Monday, September 07, 2015 6:44:42 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,215
Location: nairobi
Magnate wrote:
Out of the 54 FY & Q2 announcements done this season on a q/q %PAT

Positive PAT results -26-(48.1%)
Negative & profit warnings results-28-(51.8%)
This kind of analysis gives me the shivers
expect a gloomy FY reporting come Feb/Mar 2016.


KQ ABP 4.26
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Gatheuzi
#832 Posted : Monday, September 07, 2015 7:59:05 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
I hope KRA is making downward revenue revisions appropriately. This will be a tough year for the taxman.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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hisah
#833 Posted : Monday, September 07, 2015 7:59:28 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Since NSE self listed and its stock rallied heavily the market topped out. I wonder how many noticed this while international biz news was reporting on the sizable rally of NSE20 since 2012. Those rosy headlines always offer a solid bull trap. I'm yet to see sombre NSE headlines outlining a very pessimistic outlook. Usually happens during the capitulation or despair phase.

When the support at 4000 level is broken down the slide will not be gentle. The capitulation phase will likely pop up during that endless selling cycle as hope turns into despair. The sooner this triggers the better rather than being stuck in a hopeful slow motion slide (death by a thousand cuts).
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#834 Posted : Monday, September 07, 2015 11:14:47 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
USDKES!!! I'm now really concerned with this trend. NSE20 will have to price in this weak KES as the market is still not sure about the profit warnings! When that reality check zone (capitulation/despair) is hit, the correction will be awesome!

Keep your cash nicely...



Currently trading @106.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#835 Posted : Monday, September 07, 2015 12:25:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@hisah. I would also rather a quick slide than a slow motion boring one. At least there is time to accumulate a war chest.

BTW bonds are on an upward trend at the moment. The interest rates are getting sweeter and sweeter. August getting almost 13% annual rate at mmf
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mnandii
#836 Posted : Monday, September 07, 2015 1:03:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Gatheuzi wrote:
I hope KRA is making downward revenue revisions appropriately. This will be a tough year for the taxman.


Applause

Say that again!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#837 Posted : Monday, September 07, 2015 1:11:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Boris Boyka wrote:
obiero wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
It's getting uglier and uglier by the day. If you are to do a roll call on the countries that have already tapped out/ run out of ammo thus far, the statistics are astounding.

This could be worse than the GFC considering how much the markets are largely in sync this time and the main show is yet to unfold.

If this was only an NSE bear things would have been a lot better but as it stands our market is just but a pawn in the bigger puzzle especially considering our reserves are down to a bare minimum.

It's hard to rule out anything at this point coz even a sub 2000 index is on the cards. Might sound preposterous but could very well happen in this global bear.

Indeed, this is a bad year.. No one saw it coming apart from myself

Many saw it. There were songs all over here that 2015 will be a bad year. You were among the seers smile


@Obiero suffering from selection amnesia.

Haiya. Kweli sikumbuki hio maneno ikisemwa.. :) Iv seen my capital being murdered, currently at a paper loss position of KES 0.25m which would have been steeper at KES 0.51m; incase I had not offloaded KCB in full. I chose not to sell coz of belief that we shall turn a corner sometime in the near future. KQ in particular shall shock the hell out of most naysayers here



For ONE Year we have been yapping about a MINIMUM Target for the NSE of 2360.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Mukiri
#838 Posted : Tuesday, September 08, 2015 4:02:23 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
USDKES!!! I'm now really concerned with this trend. NSE20 will have to price in this weak KES as the market is still not sure about the profit warnings! When that reality check zone (capitulation/despair) is hit, the correction will be awesome!

Keep your cash nicely...



Currently trading @106.

USD was an investment in the 90s range. A place to hibernate?

Proverbs 19:21
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hisah
#839 Posted : Wednesday, September 09, 2015 7:35:24 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Global markets seem to have run the rebound course. Don't be fooled by this snappish rebound. I've seen this many times and I can state for a fact that these global markets are just about to break sharply lower without warning!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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cnn
#840 Posted : Wednesday, September 09, 2015 7:44:55 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
hisah wrote:
Global markets seem to have run the rebound course. Don't be fooled by this snappish rebound. I've seen this many times and I can state for a fact that these global markets are just about to break sharply lower without warning!

What did they inject to the Nikkei?,the highest single day rise since the GFC.
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