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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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Cde Monomotapa
#811 Posted : Thursday, September 03, 2015 7:20:12 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
@Spt @hisah also looking at scenario where even with a Fed hike the USD might actually retrace from it's already bullish run.

Markets unusual. Where CBs have raised rates to counter the USD - opposite results.

I think of it as stellar results by a blue-chip but the stock reverses. Whacky mkts.
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Cde Monomotapa
#812 Posted : Thursday, September 03, 2015 8:10:31 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
@Spt @hisah also looking at scenario where even with a Fed hike the USD might actually retrace from it's already bullish run.

Markets unusual. Where CBs have raised rates to counter the USD - opposite results.

I think of it as stellar results by a blue-chip but the stock reverses. Whacky mkts.


Matter of fact, the convo is inverse. Now it will be Sino urging the US to devalue the USD. Lol! The news feeds also moved from bashing RUS Laughing out loudly
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#813 Posted : Thursday, September 03, 2015 10:21:08 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
@Spt @hisah also looking at scenario where even with a Fed hike the USD might actually retrace from it's already bullish run.

Markets unusual. Where CBs have raised rates to counter the USD - opposite results.

I think of it as stellar results by a blue-chip but the stock reverses. Whacky mkts.


Matter of fact, the convo is inverse. Now it will be Sino urging the US to devalue the USD. Lol! The news feeds also moved from bashing RUS Laughing out loudly

Very true @cde . I think the market has fully priced the anticipated rate hike . The bond yields are edging upwards as the selling pressure intensifies . The FED already lagging the market.QE being replaced by QT .
@SufficientlyP
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#814 Posted : Thursday, September 03, 2015 10:31:51 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
Mpesa bank Dday tomorrow as exdiv triggers. Line in the sand is 13.50 where the vol spike came in during the strong selling. When the price break below that level heads to 12 the last peg will be 11.50. Beyond that it's a free fall towards 9. But I expect a bounce instead since most are expecting a slide exdiv so that the bulls are trapped again.

I expect a bounce too for a week or so as ex-div then the scary fall .No need to sell today .Pocket the dividends and still sell at 15 before the next retracement .
@SufficientlyP
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hisah
#815 Posted : Thursday, September 03, 2015 10:40:56 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@mnandii, USDKES now approaching 105 as we head towards all time high @107 Pray
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cde Monomotapa
#816 Posted : Thursday, September 03, 2015 11:21:33 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
@Spt @hisah also looking at scenario where even with a Fed hike the USD might actually retrace from it's already bullish run.

Markets unusual. Where CBs have raised rates to counter the USD - opposite results.

I think of it as stellar results by a blue-chip but the stock reverses. Whacky mkts.


Matter of fact, the convo is inverse. Now it will be Sino urging the US to devalue the USD. Lol! The news feeds also moved from bashing RUS Laughing out loudly

Very true @cde . I think the market has fully priced the anticipated rate hike . The bond yields are edging upwards as the selling pressure intensifies . The FED already lagging the market.QE being replaced by QT .


Interesting. There is/will still be a lot of liquidity in the system. Where will the next rotation be? Rates will still be low, varying domestics, hot-money-hostile CBs like the SNB. Markets will need a real PBOC type shocker from the FED as so far, and stripping out overvalued stocks, glut commodities, markets are oversold. EM & FM ccys? - no comment. AU, AG?
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hisah
#817 Posted : Thursday, September 03, 2015 5:47:56 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
So NSE has decided of late not to be reporting or misreporting the indices closing values... What will happen when the market falls rapidly on those days when trading will be suspended as circuit breakers trigger?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#818 Posted : Friday, September 04, 2015 1:48:07 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Mpesa bank Dday tomorrow as exdiv triggers. Line in the sand is 13.50 where the vol spike came in during the strong selling. When the price breaks below that level it'll head to 12 where the last peg will be 11.50. Beyond that it's a free fall towards 9. But I expect a bounce instead since most are expecting a slide exdiv so that the bulls are trapped again.

Exdiv today. Bulls still guarding with zeal the 13.50 peg.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#819 Posted : Friday, September 04, 2015 2:28:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
hisah wrote:
Mpesa bank Dday tomorrow as exdiv triggers. Line in the sand is 13.50 where the vol spike came in during the strong selling. When the price break below that level heads to 12 the last peg will be 11.50. Beyond that it's a free fall towards 9. But I expect a bounce instead since most are expecting a slide exdiv so that the bulls are trapped again.

I expect a bounce too for a week or so as ex-div then the scary fall .No need to sell today .Pocket the dividends and still sell at 15 before the next retracement .

Hope guys sold out today ex-div at 15.
Now we can go on holidaysmile
Dividend cheques will be out before 25th Decsmile Wow!
@SufficientlyP
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mnandii
#820 Posted : Friday, September 04, 2015 2:46:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
On Social Mood

The downturn in Education is here, ladies and gentlemen.

Signs of a mood peak are:

- Record number of NEW Universities.

- Record Number of Students attending University.

- Record Salary Award for Teachers.

- Record Tuition Fees

- Record Helb Loan Balances

The latter is quite significant.

Going forward, and as Social Mood turns from Optimism to Pessimism ( i.e, as the Stock Market Falls), expect deterioration in Educational standards, Less Regard for Higher Education, Fall in Tuition Fees Charged, Significant Increase in Helb Repayment Defaults and a collapse in Public Education System.

If your salary depends on the Education Sector take precaution now.

Best.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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