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Bear 2015 Wish List
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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nashx wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:My wish list is as follows:
Unga - Any price below 40
Kenol Kobil - Any price below 8.50
Longhorn - Any price below 6.00
All above P/E's are below 7 and the growth rate in profitability of all the three companies since 2013 is tremendous. My Buying spree starts tomorrow if my prices are met. @ S.Mutaga III I like the list above...you changed your mind on Kenya Re? A nice sober list. You mean unga at below 40 has a pe of 7? Interesting. On longhorn following the listing overvaluation this could be the best time to buy when no one is interested. KK is a no brainer The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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Aguytrying wrote:nashx wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:My wish list is as follows:
Unga - Any price below 40
Kenol Kobil - Any price below 8.50
Longhorn - Any price below 6.00
All above P/E's are below 7 and the growth rate in profitability of all the three companies since 2013 is tremendous. My Buying spree starts tomorrow if my prices are met. @ S.Mutaga III I like the list above...you changed your mind on Kenya Re? A nice sober list. You mean unga at below 40 has a pe of 7? Interesting. On longhorn following the listing overvaluation this could be the best time to buy when no one is interested. KK is a no brainer Unga fundamentals a week ago (D&B, 12.08.2015) Share Price: Ksh. 45 Real EPS: 3.65 Trailing EPS: 5.10 P/E: 12.3 Trailing P/E: 8.8 NAV per share: 46.09 P/B: 1.0 Issued Shares: 75,708,873 Dividend Yield: 1.67 DPS: 0.75 % Retention Rate: 79.45 % Growth: 10.80 PEG (actual): 1.14 Mkt Cap: 3,406,899,285 Shareholders Equity: 3,489,545,000 PAT: 474,495,000 ROE: 13.60 Feel free to price in the one-off sale of Bullpak Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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Slowly we are getting there...... my KCB has reached but greed is killing me so i will hold on!!! Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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How i wish the mauling will continue relentlessly  Hata kama ni loan tutachukua Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7
EQUITY 4.63 25-33
KCB 5.63 30-40
NIC 7.07 38-49
NSE 2.13 12-15
DTB 21.92 120-154
HFCK 2.75 15-20
JUBILEE 48 264-340
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE)
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely)
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS)
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE)
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE)
ARM 3.01 30-45
BAT 42.55 300-450
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7
BOC 11.76 65-85 The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@othelo. As you can see for me kcb buying range is below 40.00. At that point Trailing pe of 7.00!! The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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ARM ........ whah interesting. Last year SIB had a sell recommnedation @ 85 bob that likely to touch 55bob. Didnt look feasible then!!! Has been breached now! Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 5/20/2010 Posts: 69
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What about uchumi, they look like they are tidying with a seasoned manager http://www.businessdaily.../-/d18oybz/-/index.html
Good price too at 7.75
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Aguytrying wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7
EQUITY 4.63 25-33
KCB 5.63 30-40
NIC 7.07 38-49
NSE 2.13 12-15
DTB 21.92 120-154
HFCK 2.75 15-20
JUBILEE 48 264-340
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE)
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely)
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS)
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE)
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE)
ARM 3.01 30-45
BAT 42.55 300-450
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7
BOC 11.76 65-85 Good list. But considering the half year results that have already been announced where less than 10% of the firms are doing > than 10 % earnings growth...it would be nice to factor that eps shaving in your price target computations since most will dissapoint even more come next year. The feedback loop on the harsh economic conditions is not yet complete till the bankers bleed out with poorer interest income numbers. Right now most of them are still dancing on other sectors graves. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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lochaz-index wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7
EQUITY 4.63 25-33
KCB 5.63 30-40
NIC 7.07 38-49
NSE 2.13 12-15
DTB 21.92 120-154
HFCK 2.75 15-20
JUBILEE 48 264-340
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE)
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely)
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS)
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE)
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE)
ARM 3.01 30-45
BAT 42.55 300-450
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7
BOC 11.76 65-85 Good list. But considering the half year results that have already been announced where less than 10% of the firms are doing > than 10 % earnings growth...it would be nice to factor that eps shaving in your price target computations since most will dissapoint even more come next year. The feedback loop on the harsh economic conditions is not yet complete till the bankers bleed out with poorer interest income numbers. Right now most of them are still dancing on other sectors graves. What's your proposed list Sir according to your analysis
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@lochaz. Good points but please not this is a rear view mirror to judge value in the future. Because those profit dips are temporary and the market is unlikely to price them in to the extent I have priced down the past performance. I'm more interested in the previous sustainable performance than the temporary profit dips in this bear list. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Aguytrying wrote:@lochaz. Good points but please not this is a rear view mirror to judge value in the future. Because those profit dips are temporary and the market is unlikely to price them in to the extent I have priced down the past performance.
I'm more interested in the previous sustainable performance than the temporary profit dips in this bear list. I see your point. What I was advocating for is the use of normalized eps to eliminate any cyclical gyrations and/or one off transactions. In the figures posted you mostly used spot EPS of either 2013 or 2014 which could be misleading when looking for an entry point. For example using centum's eps @10 and a PER of 7 gives you a price of 70bob. In britam's case eps is @1.31 applying a PER of 7 thats about 9bob. Both of these targets have a bullish/rosy bias due to either one or both of the reasons mentioned earlier and should the bear persist longer and hand bigger discounts/haircuts you will be in trouble....especially if can't stomach a loss. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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lochaz-index wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@lochaz. Good points but please not this is a rear view mirror to judge value in the future. Because those profit dips are temporary and the market is unlikely to price them in to the extent I have priced down the past performance.
I'm more interested in the previous sustainable performance than the temporary profit dips in this bear list. I see your point. What I was advocating for is the use of normalized eps to eliminate any cyclical gyrations and/or one off transactions. In the figures posted you mostly used spot EPS of either 2013 or 2014 which could be misleading when looking for an entry point. For example using centum's eps @10 and a PER of 7 gives you a price of 70bob. In britam's case eps is @1.31 applying a PER of 7 thats about 9bob. Both of these targets have a bullish/rosy bias due to either one or both of the reasons mentioned earlier and should the bear persist longer and hand bigger discounts/haircuts you will be in trouble....especially if can't stomach a loss. Agreed normalized EPS would be ideal as it would water down those wide fluctuations in profits. Eg a five average. See I was struggling with the pe of stocks especially those on recovery eg kk, Bamburi. Or those that had major dips in 2014 eg crown berger ended up using 2013 eps. Normalisation would have sorted that out The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Museveni wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7 CURRENT PRICE
EQUITY 4.63 25-33 39.25
KCB 5.63 30-40 46.00
NIC 7.07 38-49 49.00
NSE 2.13 12-15 20.00
DTB 21.92 120-154 204.00
HFCK 2.75 15-20 21.50
JUBILEE 48 264-340 560.00
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43 67.00
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE) 14.00
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely) 184.00
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS) 33.00
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130 154.00
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE) 8.50
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE) 295.00
ARM 3.01 30-45 61.00
BAT 42.55 300-450 741.00
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21 62.00
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7 7.50
BOC 11.76 65-85 133.00 That current price was on 5th august. Only two stocks are below the target price. 1. ARM today at 44.00!! was 61.00 just 7 wks ago! 2. NIC has been sub 48.00 for along time now. like 3 months. HFCk has been hovering above 20.00. Now 21-22. The other stocks are not very near. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 3/3/2010 Posts: 79
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I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down. Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15) KQ-18,000 @5.5 Britam-8,800 @17 HFCK-6,500 @23 ARM-6000 @42 Centum-5,700 @52 My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns; KQ-@9.00 Britam-@36 HFCK-@55 ARM-@92 Centum-@85 As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees. I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading. Good Luck! Knowledge is contagious...Infect truth!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! All the best. My thoughts Your investment period looks a bit short, also, quite optimistic exit prices for HFCK, CENTUM. but you never know The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/15/2013 Posts: 301
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I also think there may be abit more downside on some of your target counters eg HF,Centum,Britam plus exit prices abit optimistic as aguytrying mentions.....lakini make your own decisions that's my take..
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/15/2015 Posts: 817
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Come ON come oN Come ON come oN . what is wrong with this bull? nini mbaya na hi ngombe? hebu tuisukume ianze kuenda mbele.Note the black lines 
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/17/2014 Posts: 132 Location: Wherethewindblows
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Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:Come ON come oN Come ON come oN . what is wrong with this bull? nini mbaya na hi ngombe? hebu tuisukume ianze kuenda mbele.Note the black lines For those of us who are clueless about charts (mbuzi ama ni kondoo?) black lines are the lowest points and you want us to push it up ama down? and how do we do that?  You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else - Albert Einstein
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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This bear is not kali enough. I remember the days when bears were bears...when panafric was sub-30 Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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