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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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hisah
#661 Posted : Monday, August 17, 2015 6:55:56 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
instinct wrote:
what do you mean NBK? is there anything i missed?

Q2 vs Q1 results indicate that risk ratios went down!? While the other banks results so far indicate otherwise. I find those NBK results to be fishy. Dubai bank saga now makes me even more concerned since it was long overdue. The econ is on course to continue slumping. NPLs will obviously bulge. In this macroecon state any bank fudging risk ratios to look rosy I view that as suspect. If all was well, why is mr market not sharply pushing the bank stocks up with the current H1 results?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#662 Posted : Monday, August 17, 2015 7:08:22 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
TheGeek wrote:
hisah wrote:
I'll start keep track of mpesa bank going forward. This is the main peg that will determine how low the market tanks next!


The CFO certainly thinks its exit time SAFARICOM CFO SELLS OFF STAKE IN COMPANY

When was that exit? That's the reference point. Good results and the elevated share price had long flashed the signal that the share had been setup for a selling bout. I expect it to play out like 2010. Thus the next market tank episode comment.

Waiting to see NSE starting those derivatives while CBK is in a 'shorting' mood. The fat tail will be obese...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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VituVingiSana
#663 Posted : Monday, August 17, 2015 10:57:55 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
instinct wrote:
what do you mean NBK? is there anything i missed?

Q2 vs Q1 results indicate that risk ratios went down!? While the other banks results so far indicate otherwise. I find those NBK results to be fishy. Dubai bank saga now makes me even more concerned since it was long overdue. The econ is on course to continue slumping. NPLs will obviously bulge. In this macroecon state any bank fudging risk ratios to look rosy I view that as suspect. If all was well, why is mr market not sharply pushing the bank stocks up with the current H1 results?

Shady bank. Shady (major) shareholders. Shady capital structure. Shady results.

NBK manages funds for GoK (ministries and institutions) but when GoK is tightening the screws, what happens? [Think interbank borrowing]
What if GoK withdraw its deposits to reduce the need to borrow using T-Bills? [Deposits plummet, loans have to be reduced, interbank borrowing]
NPLs are a joke. The Provisions are a bigger joke. NBK provisioning level is lower than DTB. A bank like DTB has consistently had low NPLs but I think this is of their customer base and loan underwriting standards. NBK had just 1.1% of the Loan Book as provisions. So unless, they wrote off tons of NPLs, the provision is barely above the 1% General Provision required by CBK.

Anyway, I am not in this boat but just watching from the shore!
"When the tide goes out, we will know who was swimming naked"
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, August 17, 2015 11:01 AM | Reason: Not specified
instinct
#664 Posted : Tuesday, August 18, 2015 5:41:37 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there
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hisah
#665 Posted : Tuesday, August 18, 2015 10:34:02 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there

The market is consolidating (taking a breather) after the steep selloff.

All eyes are still focussed on CBK in the next meeting. A hawkish CB makes equity markets jittery due to the liquidity squeeze via interest rate hikes.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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whiteowl
#666 Posted : Tuesday, August 18, 2015 11:13:17 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
hisah wrote:
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there

The market is consolidating (taking a breather) after the steep selloff.

All eyes are still focussed on CBK in the next meeting. A hawkish CB makes equity markets jittery due to the liquidity squeeze via interest rate hikes.


I think they'll raise the rate by 10 bps just to show us they still mean business. Vacuum cleaning all liquidity
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VituVingiSana
#667 Posted : Tuesday, August 18, 2015 11:15:24 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
whiteowl wrote:
hisah wrote:
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there

The market is consolidating (taking a breather) after the steep selloff.

All eyes are still focussed on CBK in the next meeting. A hawkish CB makes equity markets jittery due to the liquidity squeeze via interest rate hikes.


I think they'll raise the rate by 10 bps just to show us they still mean business. Vacuum cleaning all liquidity
10 bps is nothing. I fear it could be higher BUT the new CBK governor is a smart chap. It's better to leave interest rates alone and let the KES depreciate.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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sparkly
#668 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 7:55:02 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there


I take the approach of staying invested in good value counters rather than timing the market. There will always be underpriced shares and overpriced shares. That said, I expect further discounts in the financials and Mpesa.

Life is short. Live passionately.
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Muthawamunene
#669 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 10:34:29 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there

The market is consolidating (taking a breather) after the steep selloff.

All eyes are still focussed on CBK in the next meeting. A hawkish CB makes equity markets jittery due to the liquidity squeeze via interest rate hikes.



My biggest eye (the left one), is more on the U.S Fed this coming September. The effect of that interest rate hike (should they do so), should be interesting to watch. And a great learning experience.

Investors may flee emerging markets for U.S bonds or may flee U.S markets in anticipation of lower demand for U.S goods.

I am with pen and paper taking notes.
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bird_man
#670 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 10:36:10 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/2/2006
Posts: 1,206
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there


I take the approach of staying invested in good value counters rather than timing the market. There will always be underpriced shares and overpriced shares. That said, I expect further discounts in the financials and Mpesa.


@Sparkly, do you expect lower pricing on KCB & EQTY?
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
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mnandii
#671 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 4:21:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#672 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 4:25:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
bird_man wrote:
sparkly wrote:
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there


I take the approach of staying invested in good value counters rather than timing the market. There will always be underpriced shares and overpriced shares. That said, I expect further discounts in the financials and Mpesa.


@Sparkly, do you expect lower pricing on KCB & EQTY?


As suggested in my last post, the NSE 20 as it stands Elliott-Wave-wise should have one more final bull-run before the BIG fall. Am watching the index keenly and will post with new information as and when warranted.

Bottom line, I expect the 4906 level to be taken out soon.

Best.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#673 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 5:01:45 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
bird_man wrote:
sparkly wrote:
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there


I take the approach of staying invested in good value counters rather than timing the market. There will always be underpriced shares and overpriced shares. That said, I expect further discounts in the financials and Mpesa.


@Sparkly, do you expect lower pricing on KCB & EQTY?


As suggested in my last post, the NSE 20 as it stands Elliott-Wave-wise should have one more final bull-run before the BIG fall. Am watching the index keenly and will post with new information as and when warranted.

Bottom line, I expect the 4906 level to be taken out soon.

Best.


And, eerrh, it's safe to say 4317.23 low hit on 5th August, 2015, is a strong support and should not be violated any time soon.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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lochaz-index
#674 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 5:32:01 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
I don't think there is much upside to the market left. The lull currently in play is more like a sectional /counter by counter pump and dump before we head lower. Achieving any significant uplift to the market would be too taxing on anyone since the fundies are in the dumps.

Round two of cbr hikes in the works.

The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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mnandii
#675 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 9:17:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
EWI on China.



“Preview” of what to expect next for Chinese stocks: Government intervention continues to buy stocks in Shanghai. In the long-term battle between governments and markets, our bet is with markets. The 4170 level of the upper daily Keltner channel is expected to contain this corrective rally in Shanghai. Get FREE market insights delivered straight to your inbox >> http://bit.ly/1hpvoFo
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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