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Aguytrying
#11 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 1:44:31 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
dunkang wrote:
I still don't understand why KK is currently trading below 2011 levels. Were PUMA takeover rumours at play then?


KK actually rallied in 2011 because of PUMA takeover rumours.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#12 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 1:50:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
Many times we are getting right what to buy,our biggest failure is guessing when to sell.with all the previous market gains many will be left bare handed. the Bird was at our hands but now many find themselves holding only the feathers


This is the saddest thing. I have a solution.
As the share rises say 100% profit, sell 25-50% of you holding. you will have immediatley removed your seed capital. So that in case the share comes back to your original price, what it will be worth at that time is all your profit (if you sold 50%).
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Museveni
#13 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 2:24:37 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/16/2012
Posts: 661
Aguytrying wrote:
The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve.

Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre.

In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round.
Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now.

STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7 CURRENT PRICE

EQUITY 4.63 25-33 39.25
KCB 5.63 30-40 46.00
NIC 7.07 38-49 49.00
NSE 2.13 12-15 20.00
DTB 21.92 120-154 204.00
HFCK 2.75 15-20 21.50

JUBILEE 48 264-340 560.00
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43 67.00

SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE) 14.00
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely) 184.00
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS) 33.00

BAMBURI 9.80 98-130 154.00
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE) 8.50
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE) 295.00
ARM 3.01 30-45 61.00
BAT 42.55 300-450 741.00
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21 62.00
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7 7.50
BOC 11.76 65-85 133.00
Live and learn; and don’t forget, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
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Aguytrying
#14 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 2:49:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@Museveni. Thanks for that additional column. I had tried to create a proper table but was defeated, so i colour coded.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Museveni
#15 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 4:20:18 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/16/2012
Posts: 661
Aguytrying wrote:
@Museveni. Thanks for that additional column. I had tried to create a proper table but was defeated, so i colour coded.


Excellent choice

The only other option would have been posting as a pic.
Live and learn; and don’t forget, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
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hisah
#16 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 5:42:02 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
It's still too early to come up with a buy list! Don't fight the CB. Wait for the CB to calm down and give the green signal otherwise starving in the liquidity drought desert won't be a pleasant thing.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, August 05, 2015 5:43 PM | Reason: Not specified
snipermnoma
#17 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 9:11:11 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
hisah wrote:
It's still too early to come up with a buy list! Don't fight the CB. Wait for the CB to calm down and give the green signal otherwise starving in the liquidity drought desert won't be a pleasant thing.
CBR rate was maintained, good time for preliminary list

Aguytrying wrote:

mlennyma wrote:
Many times we are getting right what to buy,our biggest failure is guessing when to sell.with all the previous market gains many will be left bare handed. the Bird was at our hands but now many find themselves holding only the feathers


This is the saddest thing. I have a solution.
As the share rises say 100% profit, sell 25-50% of you holding. you will have immediatley removed your seed capital. So that in case the share comes back to your original price, what it will be worth at that time is all your profit (if you sold 50%).

Book gains to make them real so good advice. Have targets. If target is 50% then sell 66% to recoup initial investment (if 25% then sell 80% etc)

Museveni wrote:

Aguytrying wrote:
The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve.

Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre.

In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round.
Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now.

STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7 CURRENT PRICE

EQUITY 4.63 25-33 39.25
KCB 5.63 30-40 46.00
NIC 7.07 38-49 49.00
NSE 2.13 12-15 20.00
DTB 21.92 120-154 204.00
HFCK 2.75 15-20 21.50

JUBILEE 48 264-340 560.00
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43 67.00

SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE) 14.00
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely) 184.00
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS) 33.00

BAMBURI 9.80 98-130 154.00
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE) 8.50
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE) 295.00
ARM 3.01 30-45 61.00
BAT 42.55 300-450 741.00
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21 62.00
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7 7.50
BOC 11.76 65-85 133.00

As is typical, we are spoiled for choice! Many good choices but I can't spread my limited money across all these. My picks are: Safaricom, KCB (or Equity) and Jubilee (or Pan Africa since Jubilee target price may not be reached).
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, August 05, 2015 9:12 PM | Reason: Not specified
Aguytrying
#18 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 9:24:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
It's still too early to come up with a buy list! Don't fight the CB. Wait for the CB to calm down and give the green signal otherwise starving in the liquidity drought desert won't be a pleasant thing.


I know it's early, trust me I'm not even close to buying. As a fundie the price points are my triggers. From the looks of things I'll revise many downwards. It helps me think and internalise them. When time to pull the trigger comes I can be more clinical
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Mukiri
#19 Posted : Thursday, August 06, 2015 6:27:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
Aguytrying wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Many times we are getting right what to buy,our biggest failure is guessing when to sell.with all the previous market gains many will be left bare handed. the Bird was at our hands but now many find themselves holding only the feathers


This is the saddest thing. I have a solution.
As the share rises say 100% profit, sell 25-50% of you holding. you will have immediatley removed your seed capital. So that in case the share comes back to your original price, what it will be worth at that time is all your profit (if you sold 50%).

Good strategy. If anyone from here is holding feathers, its because they are either value investors or chose to ignore the signs and calls.

Proverbs 19:21
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#20 Posted : Thursday, August 06, 2015 10:11:13 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
It's still too early to come up with a buy list! Don't fight the CB. Wait for the CB to calm down and give the green signal otherwise starving in the liquidity drought desert won't be a pleasant thing.


I know it's early, trust me I'm not even close to buying. As a fundie the price points are my triggers. From the looks of things I'll revise many downwards. It helps me think and internalise them. When time to pull the trigger comes I can be more clinical

@Aguy, what @Hisah is saying is you watch the CBK moves, not the prices.As long as CBK shorts the market, stay away, when they get bullish(lower cbr), pull the trigger.
@SufficientlyP
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