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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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heri
#631 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 9:15:50 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
the deal wrote:
You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money smile


@deal. Karibu sana. You helped me alot make money ( paper gains) on CFC though i have lost the gains by not selling at the right time

Give us insights which shares to buy in this bear market
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Aguytrying
#632 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 10:04:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
heri wrote:
the deal wrote:
You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money smile


@deal. Karibu sana. You helped me alot make money ( paper gains) on CFC though i have lost the gains by not selling at the right time

Give us insights which shares to buy in this bear market


@the deal. Karibu. When i started investing in shares i wanted to be a bull, later i came to realise that im a bear.

@heri. that was a sweet ride i was also on that train from 60's, also courtesy of yours truly
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, August 05, 2015 11:11 AM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#633 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 10:51:51 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
heri wrote:
the deal wrote:
You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money smile


@deal. Karibu sana. You helped me alot make money ( paper gains) on CFC though i have lost the gains by not selling at the right time

Give us insights which shares to buy in this bear market


@the deal. Karibu. When i started investing in shares i wanted to be a bull, later i came to realise that im a bear.

@heri. that was a swet ride i was also on that train from 60's, also courtesy of yours truly

Welcome back @deal in this land where KQ is generating a lot of heat... Next @stocksmaster to return smile

@Aguy, nice to see that you have indeed learnt how to where the money goggles smile Bulls are for selling while bears are for buying. That's the golden rule. Stick to this rule and you'll make loads of cash.

Today MPC gives us an insight on what they're thinking. Sit tight.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, August 05, 2015 10:54 AM | Reason: Not specified
Aguytrying
#634 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 11:13:27 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
heri wrote:
the deal wrote:
You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money smile


@deal. Karibu sana. You helped me alot make money ( paper gains) on CFC though i have lost the gains by not selling at the right time

Give us insights which shares to buy in this bear market


@the deal. Karibu. When i started investing in shares i wanted to be a bull, later i came to realise that im a bear.

@heri. that was a swet ride i was also on that train from 60's, also courtesy of yours truly

Welcome back @deal in this land where KQ is generating a lot of heat... Next @stocksmaster to return smile

@Aguy, nice to see that you have indeed learnt how to where the money goggles smile Bulls are for selling while bears are for buying. That's the golden rule. Stick to this rule and you'll make loads of cash.

Today MPC gives us an insight on what they're thinking. Sit tight.


True. I know most people are sad when they see the market tank, to me the exact opposite emotion.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Angelica _ann
#635 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 1:00:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
heri wrote:
the deal wrote:
You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money smile


@deal. Karibu sana. You helped me alot make money ( paper gains) on CFC though i have lost the gains by not selling at the right time

Give us insights which shares to buy in this bear market


@the deal. Karibu. When i started investing in shares i wanted to be a bull, later i came to realise that im a bear.

@heri. that was a swet ride i was also on that train from 60's, also courtesy of yours truly

Welcome back @deal in this land where KQ is generating a lot of heat... Next @stocksmaster to return smile

@Aguy, nice to see that you have indeed learnt how to where the money goggles smile Bulls are for selling while bears are for buying. That's the golden rule. Stick to this rule and you'll make loads of cash.

Today MPC gives us an insight on what they're thinking. Sit tight.


True. I know most people are sad when they see the market tank, to me the exact opposite emotion.

In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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the deal
#636 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 3:53:03 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
heri wrote:
the deal wrote:
You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money smile


@deal. Karibu sana. You helped me alot make money ( paper gains) on CFC though i have lost the gains by not selling at the right time

Give us insights which shares to buy in this bear market


@the deal. Karibu. When i started investing in shares i wanted to be a bull, later i came to realise that im a bear.

@heri. that was a swet ride i was also on that train from 60's, also courtesy of yours truly

Welcome back @deal in this land where KQ is generating a lot of heat... Next @stocksmaster to return smile

@Aguy, nice to see that you have indeed learnt how to where the money goggles smile Bulls are for selling while bears are for buying. That's the golden rule. Stick to this rule and you'll make loads of cash.

Today MPC gives us an insight on what they're thinking. Sit tight.

Thanks comrades...things are thick...banks lending at each other at +20%...dejavu 2011...
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hisah
#637 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 5:24:19 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@deal, yes this is 2011 environment. Things are getting distorted by the day and the yield curve has not yet inverted!? When it does the market will Sick

@maka, here is the IB trend for 2011. 30% was breached back in 2011. CBK got sneaky back then and stopped plotting the yield curve. This remains so to date Sad

Meanwhile NSE20 readies to break below 4300 as it closes @4317.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, August 05, 2015 5:40 PM | Reason: Not specified
snipermnoma
#638 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 8:15:11 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
MPC maintains retain the CBR at 11.50% let's see what happens to 91 day bill tomorrow. Though it will probably go down just like 182 and 364 rates did today. https://www.centralbank....0dated%2010.08.2015.pdf

Meanwhile shilling is slowly appreciating against dollar (small daily gains each day of this week).

So factoring all this, it points to a slowing down in the slide of NSE20 and could even be a signal to a bottom. @mnandii may just be right that a recovery is on the way!

PS: @mnandii could you respond to the math on post 621? http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...&m=677095#post677095
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maka
#639 Posted : Thursday, August 06, 2015 9:11:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
[quote=snipermnoma]MPC maintains retain the CBR at 11.50% let's see what happens to 91 day bill tomorrow. Though it will probably go down just like 182 and 364 rates did today. https://www.centralbank....0dated%2010.08.2015.pdf

Meanwhile shilling is slowly appreciating against dollar (small daily gains each day of this week).

So factoring all this, it points to a slowing down in the slide of NSE20 and could even be a signal to a bottom. @mnandii may just be right that a recovery is on the way!

PS: @mnandii could you respond to the math on post 621? http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=677095#post677095[/quote]


This week the Central Bank of Kenya offered 182 and 364 Days Treasury Bills for a total of Kshs.8 Billion. The total number of bids received was 58
amounting to Kshs.721.12 Million representing 18.03% subscription and 80 bids amounting to Kshs.6.96 Billion representing 173.88% subscription for 182
and 364 days, respectively. Bids accepted amounted to Kshs.212.61 Million for 182 days and Kshs.5.13 Billion for 364 days Treasury Bills. The weighted
average rate of accepted bids, which will be applied for non-competitive bids, was 11.828% for the 182-day and 13.133% for 364-day Treasury Bills.

The 182 day T bill was highly undesubscribed...
possunt quia posse videntur
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snipermnoma
#640 Posted : Thursday, August 06, 2015 7:01:37 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
This week the Central Bank of Kenya offered 91-day Treasury Bills for a total of Kshs.3 Billion. The total number of bids received was 154 amounting to Kshs.2.14 Billion, representing a subscription of 71.42%. Total bids accepted amounted to Kshs.688.93 Million.The market weighted average rate was 14.243 %, and the weighted average of accepted bids which will be applied for non-competitive bids was 11.570% up from 11.539% in the previous auction.

91 day bill rate increased!
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hisah
#641 Posted : Thursday, August 06, 2015 8:06:27 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
snipermnoma wrote:
This week the Central Bank of Kenya offered 91-day Treasury Bills for a total of Kshs.3 Billion. The total number of bids received was 154 amounting to Kshs.2.14 Billion, representing a subscription of 71.42%. Total bids accepted amounted to Kshs.688.93 Million.The market weighted average rate was 14.243 %, and the weighted average of accepted bids which will be applied for non-competitive bids was 11.570% up from 11.539% in the previous auction.

91 day bill rate increased!

91 day yield almost at par with 182 day yields. When 91 day yields command a higher rate than 364 day notes that's when the yield curve inversion will start causing problems!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#642 Posted : Friday, August 07, 2015 2:44:27 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
FTSE KE NSE15 index posting a big intraday rally. Current gains stand at 4.64% as it tries to reclaim the 200 level handle. Half an hour before market close. On the daily chart this is going to be a bullish reversal as well as confirmed by the index vaulting above fibo resistance @196.65 with the pivot at 191.18.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mwekez@ji
#643 Posted : Friday, August 07, 2015 5:09:15 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Rich Today wrote:

Bulls will cheer todays Price Move which was dynamic and aggressive to the Upside.

The Nairobi All Share surged +2.74% for its biggest session Gain of the Year. The All Share closed at 150.45. The Nairobi NSE20 ramped +64.39 points higher to close at 4415.09. Equity Turnover slipped to 469.833m versus 1.239b.

Next week is key if we gather momentum we might well have witnessed the bottom for 2015.

Interestingly we have seen very heavy duty volumes of late [not least the market has now absorbed the Helios LLP Equity shareholding] and there is a sense that the Sellers are now done at these levels.

The Shilling was trading in a solid manner at 101.10 [which is a Signifier of its own given the decision not to raise interest rates earlier in the week].

If the Shilling continues to hold below the 103.95 2015 Intra day Low from last month, we might see a move back below 100.00

However, external forces are buffeting EM and Frontier Currencies not least Janet Yellen's FED who are expected to raise US interest rates in September, which will potentially roil these currencies again.
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snipermnoma
#644 Posted : Friday, August 07, 2015 10:26:53 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
The selling was heavy and this had to be corrected. It does look like we have seen the bottom at least of this spell. I think the rally will be thwarted at 4700 and we will see another downswing...if that happens the low target will be 4100. If it doesn't happen and the rally continues then I will rue the missed opportunity and those who got in will be doing a happy dance.
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mnandii
#645 Posted : Sunday, August 09, 2015 1:03:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Yes.



Evidence above suggests that blue wave '[b]' is complete at 4317.23. We can do away with the 3800 target for now.

So, I am short-term bullish on the NSE 20 Share Index with a target of slightly above 4906 (red wave (b)).

All the best.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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