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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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snipermnoma
#621 Posted : Monday, August 03, 2015 6:02:13 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
mnandii wrote:
Continuing from post 615 above.



This chart is similar to the long term one in post 615 but it is from www.investing.com. My aim here is to show the sub-divisions within blue wave [a]. The fall from 5499.64 is therefore blue wave ...[..b] and is analysed below.



This is the best interpretation I have for the fall from 5499.64 high and part of the reason I am skeptical that the fall is a full-blown bear. The pattern is distinctly a zigzag pattern (5-3-5).

Now, while it is possible that the move (5499.64 to 4404.72), our zigzag, may be the first leg of a leading diagonal (3-3-3-3-3), the sharpness of the fall signifies otherwise. I am therefore convinced the fall is a zigzag wave ..[..b] and should eventually be fully retraced. Please note that zigzags can be single, double or triple.

The beauty with Elliott is that it is evidence-based. Thus, if price patterns would suggest a different scenario other than the rise to the 7000 mark be assured that I will be the first to jump onto that count. Sad For now though I will be looking for a small 5 wave move to slightly above 4906.07 to satisfy that this bullish scenario is indeed the case.

A little math:

Red wave (a) = {5499.64 - 4404.72} = 1094.92

We expect a Fibonacci relation between waves (a) and (c) of the zigzag.

1). If wave (c) is 0.618 X Wave (a) then our target for wave (c) becomes:

0.618 X 1094.92 = 676.66

Subtracting 676.66 from wave (b) high gives:

4906.07 - 676.66 = 4229.41 NB: This has been surpassed.

2). If wave (c) equals wave (a) then:

4906.07 - 1094.92 = 3811.15 NB: Quite likely.

3)If wave (c) is the next Fibonacci target of 1.618 X Wave (a) then:

1.618 X 1094.92 = 1771.58

The target in this case becomes:

4906.07 - 1771.58 = 3134.49 NB: Quite unlikely.

Summary:

I expect NSE 20 share Index to fall to about 3811 points then start a strong move up toward 4907s level.

Nice trading.



@mnandii The analysis is thorough and I was able to follow though to understand I probably need to go through the book (463 pages) plus practice what I learn, it might be a while. I have two questions.

1. The calculation of wave a, the figure I highlighted in blue (4404.72) should it not be 4744.66? In which case:
i) wave a = 754.98
ii) 0.618x level becomes 4439.49
iii) Equal level becomes 4151.09
iii) 1.618 level becomes 3684.51

2. Where do fundamentals feature in all this? Seems to me like those go right out the window!
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hisah
#622 Posted : Monday, August 03, 2015 6:48:20 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NSE20 closed @4,354. Stone cold selling.

Yr was open - 5117. This means as per today's close NSE20 is down 14.9%.

The next round of madness will be interesting to watch since the market has lost legs rapidly.

@mnandii - indeed when the next bullish phase ensues 6161 all time high will be blown into pieces smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, August 03, 2015 6:52 PM | Reason: Not specified
Aguytrying
#623 Posted : Monday, August 03, 2015 9:13:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
NSE20 closed @4,354. Stone cold selling.

Yr was open - 5117. This means as per today's close NSE20 is down 14.9%.

The next round of madness will be interesting to watch since the market has lost legs rapidly.

@mnandii - indeed when the next bullish phase ensues 6161 all time high will be blown into pieces smile



The train has derailed very fast. Hiding in mmf as bear does its thing. I had buying targets set when we were at 5000 points. Most of the are almost being reached!!
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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hisah
#624 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2015 7:20:40 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 closed @4,354. Stone cold selling.

Yr was open - 5117. This means as per today's close NSE20 is down 14.9%.

The next round of madness will be interesting to watch since the market has lost legs rapidly.

@mnandii - indeed when the next bullish phase ensues 6161 all time high will be blown into pieces smile



The train has derailed very fast. Hiding in mmf as bear does its thing. I had buying targets set when we were at 5000 points. Most of the are almost being reached!!

As per yesterday's close, NSE20 has erased the entire 2013 and 2014 climb! NASI index hasn't!

More pain is coming. Why? The NASI index last month broke below the 3yr bullish trendline pinned in 2012. This means the small caps time to be taken to the cleaners has arrived! Vapour volume rally small caps counters watch them. The slide will be spectacular!

KE econ macros are so messed up at the moment. Short end notes (tbills) are threatening to command higher yields than long end notes. This is where the infamous inverted yield curve shows up. Overnight IB rate is in the red zone at 20%?! Liquidity has vapourized! Then add the hawkish CBK harsh mood that mopping up liquidity like a dry sponge. Without liquidity equities can never have legs! Equities slide sharply during recessions. NSE20 current sharp slide is just confirm the overall econ turmoil.

Sadly the MPC may still hike CBR this week. That will finish off the equities hopefuls I've been talking about and NASI will catch up with the NSE20 slide. Until that happens I don't think the market will find a strong floor to turn the current trend.

@mnandii @SPT, remember that trouble with euro chart in fx? NSE20 is falling like the euro. And now NASI has broken below the 3yr trendline. Such breaks usually unleash vicious bears.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, August 04, 2015 7:22 AM | Reason: Not specified
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#625 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2015 10:47:27 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 closed @4,354. Stone cold selling.

Yr was open - 5117. This means as per today's close NSE20 is down 14.9%.

The next round of madness will be interesting to watch since the market has lost legs rapidly.

@mnandii - indeed when the next bullish phase ensues 6161 all time high will be blown into pieces smile



The train has derailed very fast. Hiding in mmf as bear does its thing. I had buying targets set when we were at 5000 points. Most of the are almost being reached!!

As per yesterday's close, NSE20 has erased the entire 2013 and 2014 climb! NASI index hasn't!

More pain is coming. Why? The NASI index last month broke below the 3yr bullish trendline pinned in 2012. This means the small caps time to be taken to the cleaners has arrived! Vapour volume rally small caps counters watch them. The slide will be spectacular!

KE econ macros are so messed up at the moment. Short end notes (tbills) are threatening to command higher yields than long end notes. This is where the infamous inverted yield curve shows up. Overnight IB rate is in the red zone at 20%?! Liquidity has vapourized! Then add the hawkish CBK harsh mood that mopping up liquidity like a dry sponge. Without liquidity equities can never have legs! Equities slide sharply during recessions. NSE20 current sharp slide is just confirm the overall econ turmoil.

Sadly the MPC may still hike CBR this week. That will finish off the equities hopefuls I've been talking about and NASI will catch up with the NSE20 slide. Until that happens I don't think the market will find a strong floor to turn the current trend.

@mnandii @SPT, remember that trouble with euro chart in fx? NSE20 is falling like the euro. And now NASI has broken below the 3yr trendline. Such breaks usually unleash vicious bears.


That was a Great callsmile Money was made.This is when you wish NSE had ETFs. NASI would be a great short.
I see your commodos call too coming to pass. The rout is real. Brent below $50 for the first time since Jan. The Dangotes of this world heavily invested in commodos sitting tight as we speak!
@SufficientlyP
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hisah
#626 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2015 11:50:32 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 closed @4,354. Stone cold selling.

Yr was open - 5117. This means as per today's close NSE20 is down 14.9%.

The next round of madness will be interesting to watch since the market has lost legs rapidly.

@mnandii - indeed when the next bullish phase ensues 6161 all time high will be blown into pieces smile



The train has derailed very fast. Hiding in mmf as bear does its thing. I had buying targets set when we were at 5000 points. Most of the are almost being reached!!

As per yesterday's close, NSE20 has erased the entire 2013 and 2014 climb! NASI index hasn't!

More pain is coming. Why? The NASI index last month broke below the 3yr bullish trendline pinned in 2012. This means the small caps time to be taken to the cleaners has arrived! Vapour volume rally small caps counters watch them. The slide will be spectacular!

KE econ macros are so messed up at the moment. Short end notes (tbills) are threatening to command higher yields than long end notes. This is where the infamous inverted yield curve shows up. Overnight IB rate is in the red zone at 20%?! Liquidity has vapourized! Then add the hawkish CBK harsh mood that mopping up liquidity like a dry sponge. Without liquidity equities can never have legs! Equities slide sharply during recessions. NSE20 current sharp slide is just confirm the overall econ turmoil.

Sadly the MPC may still hike CBR this week. That will finish off the equities hopefuls I've been talking about and NASI will catch up with the NSE20 slide. Until that happens I don't think the market will find a strong floor to turn the current trend.

@mnandii @SPT, remember that trouble with euro chart in fx? NSE20 is falling like the euro. And now NASI has broken below the 3yr trendline. Such breaks usually unleash vicious bears.


That was a Great callsmile Money was made.This is when you wish NSE had ETFs. NASI would be a great short.
I see your commodos call too coming to pass. The rout is real. Brent below $50 for the first time since Jan. The Dangotes of this world heavily invested in commodos sitting tight as we speak!

Commodos are still a short play. Oil will likely fall to $25 - 30 level and KQ is stil stuck in lousy fuel hedges.

Having slipped further than the expected 4400 zone, I expect the rebound that comes next to be snappish to reset the excessive oversold TA readings across many counters and the indices as well. Let's see if MPC will be the excuse for that snapback. However the structure has now shifted to heavy resistance forest layer from 4700 - 5000 level. That forest layer will thwart any rebound.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#627 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2015 11:59:28 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@mnandii, sparkly, SPT and incognito mkonomtupu smile

Check out this NSE20 6yr chart. I reused @mnandii chart.



If we break below that 6yr trendline which has been in play since March 2009 (GFC madness) the bear winter will not be funny for many retail investors!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#628 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2015 12:44:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
@mnandii, sparkly, SPT and incognito mkonomtupu smile

Check out this NSE20 6yr chart. I reused @mnandii chart.



If we break below that 6yr trendline which has been in play since March 2009 (GFC madness) the bear winter will not be funny for many retail investors!


Should MPC raise the cbr further,the Bears would only get more confident, ravage the bulls more, and that trendline will for sure get shatteredPray
@SufficientlyP
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the deal
#629 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 8:49:35 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money smile
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heri
#630 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2015 9:08:58 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
the deal wrote:
You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money smile


@deal. Karibu sana. You helped me alot make money ( paper gains) on CFC though i have lost the gains by not selling at the right time

Give us insights which shares to buy in this bear market
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