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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
sparkly
#561 Posted : Friday, July 24, 2015 8:00:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Mkonomtupu has accumulated lots of mullah at the nse. He will reincarnate in Wazua as MfukoMzima ;-)
Life is short. Live passionately.
hisah
#562 Posted : Friday, July 24, 2015 8:31:17 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
sparkly wrote:
Mkonomtupu has accumulated lots of mullah at the nse. He will reincarnate in Wazua as MfukoMzima ;-)

Laughing out loudly

All the best to him.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#563 Posted : Friday, July 24, 2015 8:37:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@mnandii, the yuan clearing newsflash in KE via NBK is significant to ur KES bull call.

NSE20 closed @4539. We're getting into the pin off as the slide heads into 4400 range. I expect a solid bounce soon.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Aguytrying
#564 Posted : Friday, July 24, 2015 11:26:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mkonomtupu wrote:
Hopefully this is my last post on wazua(I have hit my target of 1,000 posts) it's been a wonderful five years ladies n gents. I have learnt a lot and taught a lot.
Let me give my accolades to the following:
@Vituvingisana-for prompting me to join wazua. Back in 2009 at the height of the bear run he was the only one actively posting and he looked he was just talking to himself.Thanks for sharpening my mind on the agric stocks moto moto thread.

@deal-for making me lots of cash on uchumi and saving me cash on Britam. Bright young fellow, good analyst when he want to be one but he gives up too easily.

@Njung'e-for saving me mad cash on mumias. I would be crying in the toilet.

@guru267-for showing me you can play the market long-term and short-term. Her early posts and market posts were really admirable. She got lost somewhere hope you find your way home.

@sparkly-an excellent stock picker good insights into good stocks but you never follow through. @mwekezaji-also a good stock picker with a bright future.

@Aguytrying and @smutaga-for being brilliant students of fundamental analysis. A bit of technical analysis will not harm you.

@Hisah-for teaching me macro-economics and inverse relation of the dollar and the commodities prices. I impressed my bosses when I told them oil would collapse from $115 to below $60.

@mnandii-for helping me re-discover technical analysis. It has saved me a lot of headache, misery and money. Keep up the spirit

@madam admin-for bestowing the rank of veteran. It would have such a shame to go out as a member.

@everyone else-knives sharpen knives. Keep up the spirit

@guests- when will you ever join and contribute to knowledge. You can't drink from the well and refuse to replenish the well.

Kwa hayo machache ladies n gents mkonomtupu has left the site


We wish you all the best good sir. Do not hesitate to return in the future. We're in this for the long haul like @mukiha.

I've learnt alot from you, especially about ignoring noise. I remember you as a lone voice in the uchumi play from 7 to 20. Also you practise the bond/ stocks rotation which is vital for any stocks investor.

Dont get carried away with trading and technical analysis, fundamentals is where the long term loot lies. I use technical to spot upcoming fundamental targets only. Adieus amigo
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Metasploit
#565 Posted : Friday, July 24, 2015 12:15:23 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
hisah wrote:
@mnandii, the yuan clearing newsflash in KE via NBK is significant to ur KES bull call.

NSE20 closed @4539. We're getting into the pin off as the slide heads into 4400 range. I expect a solid bounce soon.


We!!Those RSI indices are crazy..HFCK et allsmile smile

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
VituVingiSana
#566 Posted : Friday, July 24, 2015 12:18:06 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
@mkonomtupu - Welcome. And you will be back. Agrics doing wonders as KES depreciates vs USD. I hope you did well.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#567 Posted : Friday, July 24, 2015 12:28:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Metasploit wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii, the yuan clearing newsflash in KE via NBK is significant to ur KES bull call.

NSE20 closed @4539. We're getting into the pin off as the slide heads into 4400 range. I expect a solid bounce soon.


We!!Those RSI indices are crazy..HFCK et allsmile smile

Your posts have been spaced out smile Must be the bear in town. I expect NSE20 to bounce and retest former support 4700 - 4800 range before the next leg down. If we do get to 4000 the gloom central will be full of bargains.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
maka
#568 Posted : Friday, July 24, 2015 1:25:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii, the yuan clearing newsflash in KE via NBK is significant to ur KES bull call.

NSE20 closed @4539. We're getting into the pin off as the slide heads into 4400 range. I expect a solid bounce soon.


We!!Those RSI indices are crazy..HFCK et allsmile smile

Your posts have been spaced out smile Must be the bear in town. I expect NSE20 to bounce and retest former support 4700 - 4800 range before the next leg down. If we do get to 4000 the gloom central will be full of bargains.


Will it really rebound @Hisah?there is no impetus that would propel guys to buy...Had a chat with some Portfolio Manager he wants to exit some Fixed Income positions he holds to get into equities but they dont see the situation improving anytime soon...
possunt quia posse videntur
Metasploit
#569 Posted : Monday, July 27, 2015 2:47:21 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
hisah wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii, the yuan clearing newsflash in KE via NBK is significant to ur KES bull call.

NSE20 closed @4539. We're getting into the pin off as the slide heads into 4400 range. I expect a solid bounce soon.


We!!Those RSI indices are crazy..HFCK et allsmile smile

Your posts have been spaced out smile Must be the bear in town. I expect NSE20 to bounce and retest former support 4700 - 4800 range before the next leg down. If we do get to 4000 the gloom central will be full of bargains.


It was the bear in town..And today we have the rebound.Sellers finally exhausted on the oversold counters

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
TheGeek
#570 Posted : Monday, July 27, 2015 7:37:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/3/2014
Posts: 245
Metasploit wrote:
hisah wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii, the yuan clearing newsflash in KE via NBK is significant to ur KES bull call.

NSE20 closed @4539. We're getting into the pin off as the slide heads into 4400 range. I expect a solid bounce soon.


We!!Those RSI indices are crazy..HFCK et allsmile smile

Your posts have been spaced out smile Must be the bear in town. I expect NSE20 to bounce and retest former support 4700 - 4800 range before the next leg down. If we do get to 4000 the gloom central will be full of bargains.


It was the bear in town..And today we have the rebound.Sellers finally exhausted on the oversold counters


Take a tour to this page STOCKS PERFORMANCE key in Jan 2015 - today.

In the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
hisah
#571 Posted : Monday, July 27, 2015 10:23:34 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
4467 is where the NSE20 closed today.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Angelica _ann
#572 Posted : Monday, July 27, 2015 10:40:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
hisah wrote:
4467 is where the NSE20 closed today.

We need a rebound to bring back confidence. Any hope wanacharts?
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#573 Posted : Monday, July 27, 2015 10:57:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,218
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
4467 is where the NSE20 closed today.


Add to the cocktail a falling US and China market and NSE would need prayers to stay above 4,500.
By the way, should FED hike the rate in Sept, the Dow will get a proper shavesmile
@SufficientlyP
Muthawamunene
#574 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 9:47:44 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
hisah wrote:
4467 is where the NSE20 closed today.

We need a rebound to bring back confidence. Any hope wanacharts?


Nope. None at all. Which means you should be holding cash (or any non equity related security) on the ready.
Othelo
#575 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 8:00:17 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
Muthawamunene wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
hisah wrote:
4467 is where the NSE20 closed today.

We need a rebound to bring back confidence. Any hope wanacharts?


Nope. None at all. Which means you should be holding cash (or any non equity related security) on the ready.

Reversal in the offing, things are looking up again
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
Angelica _ann
#576 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 10:58:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
Othelo wrote:
Muthawamunene wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
hisah wrote:
4467 is where the NSE20 closed today.

We need a rebound to bring back confidence. Any hope wanacharts?


Nope. None at all. Which means you should be holding cash (or any non equity related security) on the ready.

Reversal in the offing, things are looking up again

Recovery in the works!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
hisah
#577 Posted : Wednesday, July 29, 2015 6:21:25 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
A rebound shouldn't be confused with a recovery. For recovery NSE20 needs to reclaim 5000 handle and proceed to retest the high at 5500 which stalled the bulls.

The ensuing rebound is a chance to jump out from the overvalued counters.

Nothing has changed in the econ macros and CBK's mood is still for liquidity tightening.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mnandii
#578 Posted : Wednesday, July 29, 2015 7:40:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
On China

...Prices follow the Elliott Wave Principle, not government dictates


link

From Elliott Wave International:

Here is what you need to know: The indicators we watch strongly suggest that the worldwide deflationary trend has only started.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#579 Posted : Wednesday, July 29, 2015 7:42:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
A rebound shouldn't be confused with a recovery. For recovery NSE20 needs to reclaim 5000 handle and proceed to retest the high at 5500 which stalled the bulls.

The ensuing rebound is a chance to jump out from the overvalued counters.

Nothing has changed in the econ macros and CBK's mood is still for liquidity tightening.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Muthawamunene
#580 Posted : Wednesday, July 29, 2015 9:21:24 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
Othelo wrote:
Muthawamunene wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
hisah wrote:
4467 is where the NSE20 closed today.

We need a rebound to bring back confidence. Any hope wanacharts?


Nope. None at all. Which means you should be holding cash (or any non equity related security) on the ready.

Reversal in the offing, things are looking up again

Recovery in the works!


You're too hopeful.

Yesterday's fluke (and the ones coming in the near future) is like when a terminally ill patient whose pain eases for a day or two.

As @hisa said, "Nothing has changed in the econ macros and CBK's mood is still for liquidity tightening."

But it would be a good time to start accumulating at a leisurely pace. Look towards 2017 (mid to end year), its only about 20 months away. And the dividends on your accumulated counters wont be too bad.
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