Hi all,

I have been trying to observe carefully the energy situation in Kenya for the last couple of months and i have come to conclude that we are just in the ‘bad situation' spectrum and we have not seen the worse yet,which is not very far off...
The Government,Kengen and KPLC are treating us to the usual hype blaming the drought to the current energy crisis facing the country. To me their explanation is neither here nor there and should be taken at its face value...LIES!!! Drought has got nothing to do with the current acute power shortage. It is purely lack of forward planning by the Government,Kengen and KPLC and the destruction of water catchment areas by settlers.
To try and understand what i am talking about,let us look at the various forms of power generation stations that are currently operational and their respective contribution to the national grid:

HydroElectric Power (HEP) Stations
1. Kindaruma: It has an installed capacity of 40MW and is composed of 2 hydroturbines each with a capacity of 20MW . This HEP was commissioned in 1968.
2. Kamburu: It has an installed capacity of 92.4MW comprising of 3 hydroturbines with a 31.4MW capacity each. The station was commissioned in 1974.
3. Gitaru: this is the biggest HEP power generation station in Kenya with a total installed capacity equal to 225MW. It is composed of 3 hydroturbines,2 of these have an installed capacity of 72.5MW each and the third one has a capacity 81.5MW. the 72.5MW hydroturbines were commissioned in 1978 and the 81.5MW one was commissioned in 1999.
4. Masinga: It has an installed capacity of 40MW. It is composed of 2 hydroturbines each with a capacity equal to 20MW. The hydroturbines were commissioned in 1981.
5. Kiambere: it originally had an installed capacity of 144MW when it was commissioned in 1988 and was composed of 2 hydroturbines with a capacity of 72MW each. The station was later upgraded to 168MW power generation station in 2008.
6. Turkwel Gorge: it has an installed capacity equal to 106MW. It was commissioned in 1991.
7. Mesco: it has a installed capacity equal to 0.38MW and was commissioned in 1930.
8. Ndula: It has an installed capacity of 2.0MW. It is composed of 2 hydroturbines with a rated capacity of 1.0MW each. It was commissioned in 1954.
9. Wanjii: It has an installed capacity of 7.4MW. it is composed of 4 hydroturbines each of capacity 1.85MW. The station was commissioned in 1954.
10. Tana: it has an installed capacity of 14.4MW and is composed of 5 hydroturbines each with a capacity of 3MW. The hydroturbines were commissioned at different times. The last was commissioned in 1954.
11. Gogo Falls: It has an installed capacity of 2MW and has a potential to generate upto 60MW. It was commissioned in 1957.
12. Sagana: It has an installed capacity of 1.5MW and comprises of 5 hydroturbines each with a capacity equal to 0.3MW. It was commissioned in 1956.
13. Sosian: It has an installed capacity equal to 0.4MW. It is composed of 2 hydroturbines each with a capacity of 0.2MW. it was commissioned in 1955.
14. Sondu Miriu: It has an installed capacity equal to 60MW. It was commissioned in 2008
Geothermal Power (GP) Stations
1. Olkaria I: It has an installed capacity of 45MW and is composed of 3 steamturbines each with a capacity of 15MW . The first unit was commissioned in 1981 followed by the second one in 1982 and the last one 1985.
2. Olkaria II: It has an installed capacity of 70MW. It was commissioned in 2003
Thermal Power (TP) Stations
1. Kipevu I: It has an installed capacity of 60MW and is composed of 2 steamturbines each with a capacity of 30MW . The first unit was commissioned in 1987 and the second one in 1999.
2. Kipevu II: It has an installed capacity of 75MW. It is composed of 6 diesel generators sets each with a power rating equal to 12.5MW. It was commissioned in 1999.
3. Nairobi South: it has an installed capacity equal to 13MW. It was constructed in 1972 and was operational upto 1995 when it was decommissioned. In 1998 it was recommissioned but at generation capacity of 11.5MW. It is normally not on continuous duty,meaning that it is only operational during peak power demand.
Off-Grid Power (OGP) Stations
1. Ngong Wind: It has an installed capacity of 0.35MW and is composed of 2 windturbines with a capacity of 0.15MW and 0.2MW respectively . The two units were commissioned in 1993.
2. Lamu: It has an installed capacity of 2.4MW. It is composed of 6 diesel generators sets installed between 1989 and 2007. It supplies only Lamu township.
3. Garissa: it has an installed capacity equal to 3.4MW. It is composed of 3 diesel generators sets installed between 1996 and 2005. It supplies only Garissa town and the surrounding
At independence in 1963 the total amount of installed power generation capacity was only 28MW.
10 years later between 1964 and 1973 the total amount of power added to the grid was 53MW (from Kindaruma and Nairobi South power stations). The average annual increase in generation capacity during this period was 18.93%. The total installed grid capacity stood at 81MW
10 years later between 1974 and 1983 the total amount of power added to the grid was 287MW (from Kamburu,Gitaru (1st and 2nd hydroturbines),Masinga and Olkaria I (1st and 2nd steam turbines) power stations). The average annual increase in generation capacity during this period was 35.4%. The total installed capacity stood at 368MW.
10 years later between 1984 and 1993 the total amount of power added to the grid was 295MW (from Kiambere,Turkwel Gorge,Olkaria I (3rd steamturbine),Kipevu I (1st steam turbine)). The average annual increase in generation capacity during this period was 8.0%.The total installed capacity stood at 663MW.
10 years later between 1994 and 2003 the total amount of power added to the grid was 257MW (from Gitaru (3rd hydroturbine),Olkaria II,Kipevu I (2nd steamturbine) and Kipevu II. The average annual increase in generation capacity during this period was 3.9%. The total installed capacity stood at 920MW.
From the year 2004 to 2008 the total power added to the grid was 84MW (from Kiambere upgrading and Sondu Miriu). The average annual increase in generation capacity during this period was 0.9%. As of today the total installed capacity is 1004MW or 1.004GW which is attributable to Kengen. Other independent power producers contribute just about 20% (200MW) making 1200MW the total power available in the National Grid.
Between 1963 and 1993 the increase in generation capacities was in tandem with the then growing consumer demand as a result of population growth.
Between 1994 and 2003 was a period full of corruption scandals within the government and parastatals (read KPLC) like Goldenberg which rendered the country broke and the near collapse of the economy. And thus the sharp decline in annual average increase in the generation capacity as there was very little funding going to the energy sector.
After 2004 upto late 2007 there was a landslide decrease in the power generation capacity growth from 3.9% in the previous decade to a paltry 0.9%. This 0.9% increase was attributable to the implementation of Kiambere upgrading and the commissioning of Sondu Miriu power generation stations only….Sadly during this period there was no stable Government to offer a long term power generation and distribution planning and therefore this energy sector was completely overshadowed by the unfolding political events and completely ignored. Hence no funding was availed for any future construction of new power stations and upgrading of the existing ones where possible. Mark you the upgrading of Kiambere and construction of Sondu Miriu HEP stations were started long before 2004. Come 2008 and 2009 we still don’t have any future energy expansion plans as the Government,and Kengen are very busy seeking short term solutions to the growing energy crisis.
The Situation
The current average increase in electricity/power demand is standing at 6% translating into 70MW per annum worth of additional power needed to satisfy the increase in consumer demand. However,Kengen can only afford an increase of a paltry 0.9% or 11.0MW additional power to the National Grid. In effect assuming that all the power stations operated at their full capacities,this would leave a shortfall of about 60MW!!! This means that even if the dams were always full to capacity all the time we would still continue having power rationing!!! This partly explains the erratic blackouts that we experience all the time in our homes and businesses without any prior warning from Kenya Power & Lighting Company (KPLC). With the consumer demand becoming bigger and bigger,the shortfall is also becoming bigger and bigger every year as long as the Kengen remains unable to expand the existing capacity or constructing new power generation stations to meet the increasing annual power demand.
It is clear that the situation may be more serious than we are being made to believe...you see all the dams along river Tana are the main contributors of electricity into the National Grid accounting for about 760MW or 74.3%. These dams are Kindaruma,Kamburu,Gitaru,Masinga and Kiambere. Masinga dam is the first one as you advance along the river downstream,followed by Kamburu,followed by Gitaru,then Kindaruma and lastly Kiambere. The other day Masinga dam was closed due to insufficient water (more water going out of the dam (during power generation) faster than the River Tana can replenish),thus depriving the grid off 40MW…but 40MW cannot cause such a serious energy crisis that we are experiencing now!. So what is going on? Most likely explanation is,if all the other 4 dams are operational,they must be generating at 15-20% of the installed capacity to conserve water or more dams have been shut down and the Kengen/KPLC/Government do not intend to inform the citizenry for fear of starting a panic!!!.
By the way a study carried out in 1960s confirmed the viability of an upper reservoir for the Seven Forks Cascade hydropower complex with a potential of 11 Hydroelectric power stations. So far to date only 5 have been constructed.
It is also worth remembering that other small power stations (Sagana,Mesco,Wanjii,Tana,Ndula) contribute about 26MW and are located in either Maragua or Mathioya rivers which are tributaries of river Tana. The latest available information indicates that they are drying up!!! This has mainly to do with forest interference in the Aberdares which is the source of all these rivers. The Sondu Miliu,Gogo Falls and the Sosian power stations are located on rivers emanating from the Mau forest which have also been extensively damaged by the settlers and as such may not generate at their full capacity.
At an average of 0.9% annual energy growth rate,the Kenyan economy is headed for a complete or total collapse!!!

NEVER TALK OF A RHINO IF THERE IS NO TREE NEAREBY - ZULU PROVERB