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Greece is broke
Rank: Member Joined: 1/21/2013 Posts: 427
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Mainat wrote:Since 2010, the greeks have had 3 options, do an Ireland/Spain et al and sell your furniture, impress the banker with your attitude and get a sensible payoff rate and period OR figure the required pain is nigh on possible on your people and default which would make you a pariah for a few yrs, but at least give you a chance to get your house in order OR pretend you know what you are doing until the banker realizes you don't and tells you to touch your toes. The greeks have time and again chosen the last option. timuka wrote:Mainat wrote:Clearly overestimated the greeks, absolutely kuku brained. You tell EU to f-off, go to your people and ask for vote rejecting deal on the table, then you go back to EU with your balls in your hand and get a worse deal.
I see can't see further than a greek default in the next 6 months or next year But there is a question of, what would they have done instead, did they have an alternative option? Of the three options you have floated, by the time Tsipras took over in early January 2015 only option 2 and 3 were on the table. It was a bit too late for option 1. Option 2 would have had dire economic and political consequences. It would have seen the total collapse of the economy exacerbated by the collapse of financial system, soaring inflation et al ushering in a period of social and political unrest.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Timuka, option 1 is still valid. Infact, last yr, the ching chongs had asked if they could buy some of the islands. Part of the deal now is that greeks must do privatisations. The end game for greece is actually that austerity will get worse and worse to the extent that defaulting will in retrospect seem a good idea. timuka wrote:Mainat wrote:Since 2010, the greeks have had 3 options, do an Ireland/Spain et al and sell your furniture, impress the banker with your attitude and get a sensible payoff rate and period OR figure the required pain is nigh on possible on your people and default which would make you a pariah for a few yrs, but at least give you a chance to get your house in order OR pretend you know what you are doing until the banker realizes you don't and tells you to touch your toes. The greeks have time and again chosen the last option. timuka wrote:Mainat wrote:Clearly overestimated the greeks, absolutely kuku brained. You tell EU to f-off, go to your people and ask for vote rejecting deal on the table, then you go back to EU with your balls in your hand and get a worse deal.
I see can't see further than a greek default in the next 6 months or next year But there is a question of, what would they have done instead, did they have an alternative option? Of the three options you have floated, by the time Tsipras took over in early January 2015 only option 2 and 3 were on the table. It was a bit too late for option 1. Option 2 would have had dire economic and political consequences. It would have seen the total collapse of the economy exacerbated by the collapse of financial system, soaring inflation et al ushering in a period of social and political unrest. Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The greek deal just ensures that this Sept will be very rocky aka volatile for global markets! Then a huge bounce which will suddenly terminate around 2018 - 2019. I expect a major correction (40% plus) to come in at that period. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/21/2013 Posts: 427
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Mainat wrote:Timuka, option 1 is still valid. Infact, last yr, the ching chongs had asked if they could buy some of the islands. Part of the deal now is that greeks must do privatisations. The end game for greece is actually that austerity will get worse and worse to the extent that defaulting will in retrospect seem a good idea. timuka wrote:Mainat wrote:Since 2010, the greeks have had 3 options, do an Ireland/Spain et al and sell your furniture, impress the banker with your attitude and get a sensible payoff rate and period OR figure the required pain is nigh on possible on your people and default which would make you a pariah for a few yrs, but at least give you a chance to get your house in order OR pretend you know what you are doing until the banker realizes you don't and tells you to touch your toes. The greeks have time and again chosen the last option. timuka wrote:Mainat wrote:Clearly overestimated the greeks, absolutely kuku brained. You tell EU to f-off, go to your people and ask for vote rejecting deal on the table, then you go back to EU with your balls in your hand and get a worse deal.
I see can't see further than a greek default in the next 6 months or next year But there is a question of, what would they have done instead, did they have an alternative option? Of the three options you have floated, by the time Tsipras took over in early January 2015 only option 2 and 3 were on the table. It was a bit too late for option 1. Option 2 would have had dire economic and political consequences. It would have seen the total collapse of the economy exacerbated by the collapse of financial system, soaring inflation et al ushering in a period of social and political unrest. @Mainat, thats an interesting perspective. Its a case of lesser/better evil. Austerity or collapse of the economy. More or less the same effect to the people only that the former is gradual and controlled
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/29/2008 Posts: 1,566
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This Tsprias guy campained and came to power on the premise of giving the Greeks a better deal from the austerity measures that had been in place in the preceeding 5 years or so. He went ahead to call for a referendum (a money gobbling exercise) for a mandate to ward off similar austerity measures demands. Then in less than a week after the mandate to acquisces to even worse austerity regime! That can only mean 1) He blantantly conned the greek people into electing him. or 2) He is completely at sea in understanding the dynamics at play in these matters. Isuni yilu yi maa me muyo - ni Mbisuu
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/21/2009 Posts: 602
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Banks open on Monday "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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When Push comes to Shove Greece crisis: PM Alexis Tsipras quits and calls early pollsGreece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has announced he is resigning and has called an early election. Mr Tsipras, who was only elected in January, said he had a moral duty to go to the polls now a third bailout had been secured with European creditors. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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