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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 Bitcoin. Waiting for a break above $451. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:Bitcoin. Waiting for a break above $451. There is an alternate count calling for a move below $150. So we watch out. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Bitcoin. Waiting for a break above $451. There is an alternate count calling for a move below $150. So we watch out. To see the image better, right click on it > open image in a new tab. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities.  We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Indeed, that 4400 mark will officially confirm the bear is in town not flirting with the market as is the case now. As for the KES am still of opinion that things are going to get worse by around September once cost push inflation sets in proper unless somehow oil prices take a serious plunge between now and then. Unknown factors which may also come into play are the fallouts from Greece situation and the Chinese stock markets. The snowball effect from those two could trigger another full on global crisis. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Pray do tell where you'll head out to?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Mukiri wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Pray do tell where you'll head out to? Aha. Now you want to know what the prophet thinks. I told you this guy knows his stuff. he called the current market decline in Q3 2014 when folks were busy buying equity at 63.00. welcome to the followers The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@mukiri - I'm in the commodities market this year shorting oil, copper, coffee, gold etc. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Ai Caramba!! MPC went for another 150bps hike on the CBR plus KBRR hiked. Defending KES guns blazing! @mnandii how much are you paying these guys to back you on KES bull strength 
Tightening the econ handbrake with conviction this cbk! Econ thrown under the bus! Recession it is! So how will the expansionary budget work or those lofty GDP growth estimates be met?
Those profit warnings are definitely going to be all over the place. NPLs avalanche coming up. The defaults will be amazing. Banks liquidity ratio on my watchlist. Weak ones will have their legs cut! Will we see some banks fold? Forced consolidation perhaps...
@mukiri you'll need every strength you've got to stay put in the market without wilting. The market will test your will to the core even with solid picks as selling turns irrational. If you survive this bootcamp and learn the lessons, you'll start to see the market mechanics. You'll switch from being a fan of rallies to fat tails (discounts) just like the smart money/big boys. Sizable money is always made on the discounts! Rallies are for selling! This info will never be taught in class. When you graduate from that class expect to be a loner since you won't stand market herds/crowds. You'll be stoned severely for making unpopular views vs the crowd... I hope @dunkang will read and benefit from this info as well.
@mnandii I still refuse to give up USDKES bull charge even though CBR has been hiked a massive 300bps in a month's time!
@SPT @sparkly too quiet you are. Watch out for Sept for global markets.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Ai Caramba!! MPC went for another 150bps hike on the CBR plus KBRR hiked. Defending KES guns blazing! @mnandii how much are you paying these guys to back you on KES bull strength
Tightening the econ handbrake with conviction this cbk! Econ thrown under the bus! Recession it is! So how will the expansionary budget work or those lofty GDP growth estimates be met?
Those profit warnings are definitely going to be all over the place. NPLs avalanche coming up. The defaults will be amazing. Banks liquidity ratio on my watchlist. Weak ones will have their legs cut! Will we see some banks fold? Forced consolidation perhaps...
@mukiri you'll need every strength you've got to stay put in the market without wilting. The market will test your will to the core even with solid picks as selling turns irrational. If you survive this bootcamp and learn the lessons, you'll start to see the market mechanics. You'll switch from being a fan of rallies to fat tails (discounts) just like the smart money/big boys. Sizable money is always made on the discounts! Rallies are for selling! This info will never be taught in class. When you graduate from that class expect to be a loner since you won't stand market herds/crowds. You'll be stoned severely for making unpopular views vs the crowd... I hope @dunkang will read and benefit from this info as well.
@mnandii I still refuse to give up USDKES bull charge even though CBR has been hiked a massive 300bps in a month's time!
@SPT @sparkly too quiet you are. Watch out for Sept for global markets.
 The market decides the rates. MPC only responds.. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Ai Caramba!! MPC went for another 150bps hike on the CBR plus KBRR hiked. Defending KES guns blazing! @mnandii how much are you paying these guys to back you on KES bull strength
Tightening the econ handbrake with conviction this cbk! Econ thrown under the bus! Recession it is! So how will the expansionary budget work or those lofty GDP growth estimates be met?
Those profit warnings are definitely going to be all over the place. NPLs avalanche coming up. The defaults will be amazing. Banks liquidity ratio on my watchlist. Weak ones will have their legs cut! Will we see some banks fold? Forced consolidation perhaps...
@mukiri you'll need every strength you've got to stay put in the market without wilting. The market will test your will to the core even with solid picks as selling turns irrational. If you survive this bootcamp and learn the lessons, you'll start to see the market mechanics. You'll switch from being a fan of rallies to fat tails (discounts) just like the smart money/big boys. Sizable money is always made on the discounts! Rallies are for selling! This info will never be taught in class. When you graduate from that class expect to be a loner since you won't stand market herds/crowds. You'll be stoned severely for making unpopular views vs the crowd... I hope @dunkang will read and benefit from this info as well.
@mnandii I still refuse to give up USDKES bull charge even though CBR has been hiked a massive 300bps in a month's time!
@SPT @sparkly too quiet you are. Watch out for Sept for global markets.
The market decides the rates. MPC only responds.. And I still maintain that 108/- to the dollar will not be breached. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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The other day I said Equity was making dangerous moves by announcing loans against shares. Today KCB makes its own mistake: Quote:Uchumi takes additional Sh500m debt from KCB
Retail chain Uchumi Supermarkets said on Tuesday day it had struck a Sh500 million loan deal with KCB as it awaits the outcome of a forensic audit that will determine the company’s future.
linkOnce a comapny is in its death bed (like Mumias and Kenya Airways), and especially in the NSE bear market we foresee via Elliott waves, any rescue plans involving money will suck in the rescuers. KCB may soon have to write off this 500 Million shilling life-line it is throwing carelessly. Situation similar to Greece. How many rescue plans has Uchumi had? J. Ciano was specifically tapped to turn-around fortunes of the retailer for the better. It did not happen. As EWI asserts, the often kicked can may have run out of road. Apparently, National Bank is also in a similar dilemma once it releases the 1 Billion shillings Mumias bailout package. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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mnandii wrote:The other day I said Equity was making dangerous moves by announcing loans against shares. Today KCB makes its own mistake: Quote:Uchumi takes additional Sh500m debt from KCB
Retail chain Uchumi Supermarkets said on Tuesday day it had struck a Sh500 million loan deal with KCB as it awaits the outcome of a forensic audit that will determine the company’s future.
linkOnce a comapny is in its death bed (like Mumias and Kenya Airways), and especially in the NSE bear market we foresee via Elliott waves, any rescue plans involving money will suck in the rescuers. KCB may soon have to write off this 500 Million shilling life-line it is throwing carelessly. Situation similar to Greece. How many rescue plans has Uchumi had? J. Ciano was specifically tapped to turn-around fortunes of the retailer for the better. It did not happen. As EWI asserts, the often kicked can may have run out of road. Apparently, National Bank is also in a similar dilemma once it releases the 1 Billion shillings Mumias bailout package. 500M is small money can be recovered by selling off afew branches. I don't think things are that grave at Uchumi. I could be wrong. I await the forensic report "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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I heard on NTV yesterday that Uchumi's land in Kasarani is valued at 2.2 B . It is perhaps the one being sold to raise 2B which will only pay "part" of suppliers i.e. those with claims outstanding >90days. I see no point in doing business with Uchumi. It died long time ago. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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