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Rotich removes caps on foreign ownership in local firms
obiero
#21 Posted : Wednesday, July 01, 2015 8:24:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,501
Location: nairobi
100 BAT shares cost 71,400... Tafakari hayo wanawanjiku

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
S.Mutaga III
#22 Posted : Wednesday, July 01, 2015 8:37:30 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
whiteowl wrote:
Don't know if it's a good idea but it definitely presents a great opportunity to mint cash.

This action will be of more benefit to foreigners and just a number of Kenyans...probably wazuans. Wanjiku will be milked dry due to increased number of investors with resources and knowledge. Most foreign investors are high net worth buyers and so you should expect stronger rallies...and as long as you are knowledgeable enough, this will be a dream come true.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
whiteowl
#23 Posted : Wednesday, July 01, 2015 8:48:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
S.Mutaga III wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Don't know if it's a good idea but it definitely presents a great opportunity to mint cash.

This action will be of more benefit to foreigners and just a number of Kenyans...probably wazuans. Wanjiku will be milked dry due to increased number of investors with resources and knowledge. Most foreign investors are high net worth buyers and so you should expect stronger rallies...and as long as you are knowledgeable enough, this will be a dream come true.

It's definitely a dream come true but let's also wait and see the companies exempt from this rule coz of " strategic importance" to the government.
Afroblk
#24 Posted : Wednesday, July 01, 2015 10:00:01 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/3/2010
Posts: 79
whiteowl wrote:
Don't know if it's a good idea but it definitely presents a great opportunity to mint cash.


This is a terrible idea but at the same time, those smart enough will mint cash. More than ever, the market will be more vulnerable to politics, security etc. Foreigners are quick to exit whenever they sense danger or there's uncertainty, whereas Kenyans will just be vigilant and take minimal action since we're on the ground and understand what's going on. My advise is to have a strategy and some cash reserves to buy when they dump!
Knowledge is contagious...Infect truth!
VituVingiSana
#25 Posted : Thursday, July 02, 2015 12:06:26 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,097
Location: Nairobi
enyands wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:
enyands wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
majimaji wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Don't know if it's a good idea but it definitely presents a great opportunity to mint cash.

by whom?

Since there are no limits, that means greater volatility during entry and exit of the foreign cash.If you are on the right side of that volatility you can profit immensely. On the flipside the worth of your stocks can be wiped out.



Two things
1 when the foreigners sell their shares or get bonus or dividends they will take the money to invest in their own mother countries instead of investing back here to create more opportunities for mwananchi

2 by disposing off shares in large quantities ( since they buy big big quantites )expect the price of shares to go down real quick because of supply demand thing .so that's very -ve .

3 by disposing large they will need to purchase lot's of dollars at once putting pressure on the supply demand thing on the dollar rate pushing the rate up like what's going on right now 1$ →100 ksh .
For govt they benefit for liquidity and availability of funds and that new tax thing rotich brought on budget but for us we will just be like a Pebble floating in an ocean. Tossed around since we have no power. It's a bad bad thing ...just saying


Those are actually three things (I know how to count).

The problems you cite are fairly short term IMHO. Over the long term increasing FDI is good for the Economy.

Over the short term Kenya has used up it its foreign borrowing limit. What else do you want Rotich to do?




There is mining going on in the country , it will be wrong to tell those big mining companies not to include local ownership .that's the same problem Nigeria is having now . They have a lot of oil but sometimes it breaks my heart to see that in some pump station there is no gas and people have to line ... reason being that the big SHELL COMPANIES ARE 98% OWNED BY FOREIGNERS the remaining 2% owned by abacha and babaginda kins. I don't think we need this in Kenya Shame on you

Nigerians are special. The "big SHELL COMPANIES ARE 98% OWNED BY FOREIGNERS" isn't true. They have refineries lying idle coz the importers are the connected folk.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#26 Posted : Thursday, July 02, 2015 12:08:47 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,097
Location: Nairobi
Mukiri wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Othelo wrote:
biddii wrote:
Which listed companies would these be? From what I can make out:

1. BAT
2. CFC Stanbic
3. Total
4. BOC Kenya
5. Bamburi?
6. EABL
7. Hizo ma Tea + coffee companies

8. Pan africa insurance

Please add any others I have missed.

Thanks



A sad day indeed. We'll be squatters sitting duck in our own country.

Mbut the least we can do s position ourselves to make a mbuck. Wherein above, lies the question?

Well, then do not sell your shares. Why are you selling off your shares then crying about being a sitting duck?
Tomorrow, go out and buy shares in all the firms above.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#27 Posted : Thursday, July 02, 2015 12:10:30 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,097
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
75% cap was a very good idea. Let Kenyans own 25% of the company even if it is by "force".

We cannot have 100% foreign owned company running the economy. Foreigners can always pack and go if it suits them. Kenyans not so much (of course a few do). For Kenyans it is more than money! That is why you can tell the pride in posts by Kenyans when they post about a company they own shares in. It is not just about dividends and Capital gains. When they discuss shares they own in other countries, you can tell the pride is not there. it is just about the bottom line.

1) Don't sell your shares.
2) Start your own firm.
3) Don't sell off your company.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#28 Posted : Thursday, July 02, 2015 12:12:46 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,097
Location: Nairobi
S.Mutaga III wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Don't know if it's a good idea but it definitely presents a great opportunity to mint cash.

This action will be of more benefit to foreigners and just a number of Kenyans...probably wazuans. Wanjiku will be milked dry due to increased number of investors with resources and knowledge. Most foreign investors are high net worth buyers and so you should expect stronger rallies...and as long as you are knowledgeable enough, this will be a dream come true.
Then let those who can make money make money.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
enyands
#29 Posted : Thursday, July 02, 2015 12:54:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Don't know if it's a good idea but it definitely presents a great opportunity to mint cash.

This action will be of more benefit to foreigners and just a number of Kenyans...probably wazuans. Wanjiku will be milked dry due to increased number of investors with resources and knowledge. Most foreign investors are high net worth buyers and so you should expect stronger rallies...and as long as you are knowledgeable enough, this will be a dream come true.
Then let those who can make money make money.



Wanjiku is an endangered species and she endangered by her own kind who has more superior survival habits. Milking dry is the new norm no matter the cost
VituVingiSana
#30 Posted : Thursday, July 02, 2015 2:38:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,097
Location: Nairobi
enyands wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Don't know if it's a good idea but it definitely presents a great opportunity to mint cash.

This action will be of more benefit to foreigners and just a number of Kenyans...probably wazuans. Wanjiku will be milked dry due to increased number of investors with resources and knowledge. Most foreign investors are high net worth buyers and so you should expect stronger rallies...and as long as you are knowledgeable enough, this will be a dream come true.
Then let those who can make money make money.



Wanjiku is an endangered species and she endangered by her own kind who has more superior survival habits. Milking dry is the new norm no matter the cost
Wanjiku is tough. She will evolve. Often, Wanjiku [Buy & Hold] will out-perform the traders.

At many AGMs e.g. BBK, SCBK ... I see 'Wanjiku' who are unpretentious yet they have shares held for 20 years. They are all millionaires.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Wakanyugi
#31 Posted : Thursday, July 02, 2015 4:22:46 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,634
MaichBlack wrote:
75% cap was a very good idea. Let Kenyans own 25% of the company even if it is by "force".

We cannot have 100% foreign owned company running the economy. Foreigners can always pack and go if it suits them. Kenyans not so much (of course a few do). For Kenyans it is more than money! That is why you can tell the pride in posts by Kenyans when they post about a company they own shares in. It is not just about dividends and Capital gains. When they discuss shares they own in other countries, you can tell the pride is not there. it is just about the bottom line.


There is no bottom-line entry called pride.

The North Korean economy is run on an ideology of pride, purity and exclusion. The South is just the reverse. Which would you rather have?
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
Wakanyugi
#32 Posted : Thursday, July 02, 2015 4:25:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,634
enyands wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:
enyands wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
majimaji wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Don't know if it's a good idea but it definitely presents a great opportunity to mint cash.

by whom?

Since there are no limits, that means greater volatility during entry and exit of the foreign cash.If you are on the right side of that volatility you can profit immensely. On the flipside the worth of your stocks can be wiped out.



Two things
1 when the foreigners sell their shares or get bonus or dividends they will take the money to invest in their own mother countries instead of investing back here to create more opportunities for mwananchi

2 by disposing off shares in large quantities ( since they buy big big quantites )expect the price of shares to go down real quick because of supply demand thing .so that's very -ve .

3 by disposing large they will need to purchase lot's of dollars at once putting pressure on the supply demand thing on the dollar rate pushing the rate up like what's going on right now 1$ →100 ksh .
For govt they benefit for liquidity and availability of funds and that new tax thing rotich brought on budget but for us we will just be like a Pebble floating in an ocean. Tossed around since we have no power. It's a bad bad thing ...just saying


Those are actually three things (I know how to count).

The problems you cite are fairly short term IMHO. Over the long term increasing FDI is good for the Economy.

Over the short term Kenya has used up it its foreign borrowing limit. What else do you want Rotich to do?


he shoul be creative. Just like imposing CGT on stocks had negative effect . He came up with the other source of tax inform of transaction fee. But the point you are missing here is what people call "kicking the can down the road" all someone wwants is how best can I survive this Short term I have with the current regime. What people forget is the long term effect such decisions have long after they are gone . It's good you raised a point that hehas run out of option , then do you choke the rooster because it can't lay eggs ..point is thereare better ways to eencourage faithful wanjiku who can stick around


Rotich may not be the most creative Finance Minister we have had (which I actually think is a good thing). But he is not afraid to try new things and even change tack when some ideas fail.

This is an idea that should succeed.
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
mv_ufanisi
#33 Posted : Thursday, July 09, 2015 10:09:50 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
Not all FDI is created equal. You want to attract the type that builds actual businesses, factories etc. The type that only comes to the NSE to make a quick buck and jumps ship at the earliest sign of trouble can bring down a government. Reference the Asian financial crisis. This will lead to Kenyans rioting in the streets one day and could even bring down the government. How? The steps to ruin:

1. Lots of foreign capital comes to the NSE chasing the opportunity to participate in "emerging market growth"
2. Increased Supply, leads to Increased Prices. NSE becomes hot, hotter and hottest. Even the average Kenyan starts talking about stocks.
3. For one unexpected reason or the other, one day foreigners decide to bail from the NSE
4. They sell off quickly before guy on the streets knows whats going on
5. Now they are sitting on a pile of Kshs that they need to exchange to USD ASAP so suddenly shillings becomes super weak
6. Central Bank tries to save the shilling by selling dollars but finds that it runs out of foreign currency as foreigners are selling KES like there's no tomorrow
7. NSE takes a massive nose dive - the guy on the streets who was earlier invested loses a bunch of cash
8. KES loses value so much, price of basic commodities hits the roof
9. People can no longer afford bread etc
10. Riots break out
11. IMF and World Bank step into the picture
12. Austerity yada yada
13. More riots break out
...

No capital exchange controls and full foreign participation in local companies is a powder keg. The speculators come dressed in "FDI" clothing but they are nothing but gamblers.
Wakanyugi
#34 Posted : Friday, July 10, 2015 8:02:24 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,634
mv_ufanisi wrote:
Not all FDI is created equal. You want to attract the type that builds actual businesses, factories etc. The type that only comes to the NSE to make a quick buck and jumps ship at the earliest sign of trouble can bring down a government. Reference the Asian financial crisis. This will lead to Kenyans rioting in the streets one day and could even bring down the government. How? The steps to ruin:

1. Lots of foreign capital comes to the NSE chasing the opportunity to participate in "emerging market growth"
2. Increased Supply, leads to Increased Prices. NSE becomes hot, hotter and hottest. Even the average Kenyan starts talking about stocks.
3. For one unexpected reason or the other, one day foreigners decide to bail from the NSE
4. They sell off quickly before guy on the streets knows whats going on
5. Now they are sitting on a pile of Kshs that they need to exchange to USD ASAP so suddenly shillings becomes super weak
6. Central Bank tries to save the shilling by selling dollars but finds that it runs out of foreign currency as foreigners are selling KES like there's no tomorrow
7. NSE takes a massive nose dive - the guy on the streets who was earlier invested loses a bunch of cash
8. KES loses value so much, price of basic commodities hits the roof
9. People can no longer afford bread etc
10. Riots break out
11. IMF and World Bank step into the picture
12. Austerity yada yada
13. More riots break out
...

No capital exchange controls and full foreign participation in local companies is a powder keg. The speculators come dressed in "FDI" clothing but they are nothing but gamblers.


Good points.

However we have had very few capital controls for many years. This is a major avenue for speculative money, the kind of bad FDI you refer to.

On the other hand lifting ownership ratios on Kenyan companies potentially allows the Hellios, KLM's and Vodacoms of this world to bring in more capital, technology and talent to make KQ, Equity and Safaricom grow. This is good for us.

Limiting such investment, as we have been doing, adds absolutely no value, except pride and in fact does not protect us from bad FDI.
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
enyands
#35 Posted : Friday, July 10, 2015 9:12:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
[quo t e=Wakanyugi]
mv_ufanisi wrote:
Not all FDI is created equal. You want to attract the type that builds actual businesses, factories etc. The type that only comes to the NSE to make a quick buck and jumps ship at the earliest sign of trouble can bring down a government. Reference the Asian financial crisis. This will lead to Kenyans rioting in the streets one day and could even bring down the government. How? The steps to ruin:

1. Lots of foreign capital comes to the NSE chasing the opportunity to participate in "emerging market growth"
2. Increased Supply, leads to Increased Prices. NSE becomes hot, hotter and hottest. Even the average Kenyan starts talking about stocks.
3. For one unexpected reason or the other, one day foreigners decide to bail from the NSE
4. They sell off quickly before guy on the streets knows whats going on
5. Now they are sitting on a pile of Kshs that they need to exchange to USD ASAP so suddenly shillings becomes super weak
6. Central Bank tries to save the shilling by selling dollars but finds that it runs out of foreign currency as foreigners are selling KES like there's no tomorrow
7. NSE takes a massive nose dive - the guy on the streets who was earlier invested loses a bunch of cash
8. KES loses value so much, price of basic commodities hits the roof
9. People can no longer afford bread etc
10. Riots break out
11. IMF and World Bank step into the picture
12. Austerity yada yada
13. More riots break out
...

No capital exchange controls and full foreign participation in local companies is a powder keg. The speculators come dressed in "FDI" clothing but they are nothing but gamblers.


Good points.

However we have had very few capital controls for many years. This is a major avenue for speculative money, the kind of bad FDI you refer to.

On the other hand lifting ownership ratios on Kenyan companies potentially allows the Hellios, KLM's and Vodacoms of this world to bring in more capital, technology and talent to make KQ, Equity and Safaricom grow. This is good for us.

Limiting such investment, as we have been doing, adds absolutely no value, except pride and in fact does not protect us from bad FDI.
[/quote]


I want to highlight something on a different ground but can be related to this . Reading the paper Jana there was a protest written by bamburi and east African Portland about the Chinese firm responsible for building SGR were importing their own cement instead of getting it from local manufacturer . I'm trying to see a situation where if these Chinese were told that there can do whatever they want to get cement from wherever they want then definitely they will import from China to increase the profit margins at a cost of local companies that in turn hire kenyans .so if you read point number 3 from mv_ufanisi you will understand how an ordinary Kenyan will directly he affected . Foreign investment is good but a a reasonable percentage should be left for kenyans
Wakanyugi
#36 Posted : Friday, July 10, 2015 3:45:58 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,634
enyands wrote:
[quo t e=Wakanyugi]
mv_ufanisi wrote:
Not all FDI is created equal. You want to attract the type that builds actual businesses, factories etc. The type that only comes to the NSE to make a quick buck and jumps ship at the earliest sign of trouble can bring down a government. Reference the Asian financial crisis. This will lead to Kenyans rioting in the streets one day and could even bring down the government. How? The steps to ruin:

1. Lots of foreign capital comes to the NSE chasing the opportunity to participate in "emerging market growth"
2. Increased Supply, leads to Increased Prices. NSE becomes hot, hotter and hottest. Even the average Kenyan starts talking about stocks.
3. For one unexpected reason or the other, one day foreigners decide to bail from the NSE
4. They sell off quickly before guy on the streets knows whats going on
5. Now they are sitting on a pile of Kshs that they need to exchange to USD ASAP so suddenly shillings becomes super weak
6. Central Bank tries to save the shilling by selling dollars but finds that it runs out of foreign currency as foreigners are selling KES like there's no tomorrow
7. NSE takes a massive nose dive - the guy on the streets who was earlier invested loses a bunch of cash
8. KES loses value so much, price of basic commodities hits the roof
9. People can no longer afford bread etc
10. Riots break out
11. IMF and World Bank step into the picture
12. Austerity yada yada
13. More riots break out
...

No capital exchange controls and full foreign participation in local companies is a powder keg. The speculators come dressed in "FDI" clothing but they are nothing but gamblers.


Good points.

However we have had very few capital controls for many years. This is a major avenue for speculative money, the kind of bad FDI you refer to.

On the other hand lifting ownership ratios on Kenyan companies potentially allows the Hellios, KLM's and Vodacoms of this world to bring in more capital, technology and talent to make KQ, Equity and Safaricom grow. This is good for us.

Limiting such investment, as we have been doing, adds absolutely no value, except pride and in fact does not protect us from bad FDI.


Rotich wrote:

I want to highlight something on a different ground but can be related to this . Reading the paper Jana there was a protest written by bamburi and east African Portland about the Chinese firm responsible for building SGR were importing their own cement instead of getting it from local manufacturer . I'm trying to see a situation where if these Chinese were told that there can do whatever they want to get cement from wherever they want then definitely they will import from China to increase the profit margins at a cost of local companies that in turn hire kenyans .so if you read point number 3 from mv_ufanisi you will understand how an ordinary Kenyan will directly he affected . Foreign investment is good but a a reasonable percentage should be left for kenyans



You are mixing oranges with bananas. The Chinese company is clearly in breach of local content rules, but that is a different matter altogether.

But, to keep to FDI, if the Chinese owned Bamburi (or most of it) do you think they would import cement from China?

To use an example further afield: almost all major Canadian companies are owned by Americans. This has not stopped their economy from doing very well - recently better than the US. In fact, by tying themselves closely to American interests, they have guaranteed access to the American market, talent, capital etc.


"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
enyands
#37 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 8:23:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
Wakanyugi wrote:
enyands wrote:
[quo t e=Wakanyugi]
mv_ufanisi wrote:
Not all FDI is created equal. You want to attract the type that builds actual businesses, factories etc. The type that only comes to the NSE to make a quick buck and jumps ship at the earliest sign of trouble can bring down a government. Reference the Asian financial crisis. This will lead to Kenyans rioting in the streets one day and could even bring down the government. How? The steps to ruin:

1. Lots of foreign capital comes to the NSE chasing the opportunity to participate in "emerging market growth"
2. Increased Supply, leads to Increased Prices. NSE becomes hot, hotter and hottest. Even the average Kenyan starts talking about stocks.
3. For one unexpected reason or the other, one day foreigners decide to bail from the NSE
4. They sell off quickly before guy on the streets knows whats going on
5. Now they are sitting on a pile of Kshs that they need to exchange to USD ASAP so suddenly shillings becomes super weak
6. Central Bank tries to save the shilling by selling dollars but finds that it runs out of foreign currency as foreigners are selling KES like there's no tomorrow
7. NSE takes a massive nose dive - the guy on the streets who was earlier invested loses a bunch of cash
8. KES loses value so much, price of basic commodities hits the roof
9. People can no longer afford bread etc
10. Riots break out
11. IMF and World Bank step into the picture
12. Austerity yada yada
13. More riots break out
...

No capital exchange controls and full foreign participation in local companies is a powder keg. The speculators come dressed in "FDI" clothing but they are nothing but gamblers.


Good points.

However we have had very few capital controls for many years. This is a major avenue for speculative money, the kind of bad FDI you refer to.

On the other hand lifting ownership ratios on Kenyan companies potentially allows the Hellios, KLM's and Vodacoms of this world to bring in more capital, technology and talent to make KQ, Equity and Safaricom grow. This is good for us.

Limiting such investment, as we have been doing, adds absolutely no value, except pride and in fact does not protect us from bad FDI.


Rotich wrote:

I want to highlight something on a different ground but can be related to this . Reading the paper Jana there was a protest written by bamburi and east African Portland about the Chinese firm responsible for building SGR were importing their own cement instead of getting it from local manufacturer . I'm trying to see a situation where if these Chinese were told that there can do whatever they want to get cement from wherever they want then definitely they will import from China to increase the profit margins at a cost of local companies that in turn hire kenyans .so if you read point number 3 from mv_ufanisi you will understand how an ordinary Kenyan will directly he affected . Foreign investment is good but a a reasonable percentage should be left for kenyans



You are mixing oranges with bananas. The Chinese company is clearly in breach of local content rules, but that is a different matter altogether.

But, to keep to FDI, if the Chinese owned Bamburi (or most of it) do you think they would import cement from China?

To use an example further afield: almost all major Canadian companies are owned by Americans. This has not stopped their economy from doing very well - recently better than the US. In fact, by tying themselves closely to American interests, they have guaranteed access to the American market, talent, capital etc.




I agree 100% with all your points except the last bit . You gave a good example of most investors in Canada are US Citizens . I agree . There is a huge difference between an investor who invests in North America and an investor who invests in African markets,In this case kenyas markets are prone to insecurities , political instability amongst others parameters . So when we talk about foreign investors investing in Kenya it's a gamble for them . But in Canada it's a surety . Anyway them bringing money and technology is a good idea and best for our economy . My fear is when they chose to migrate "en mass " to look for other greener pastures .
Lastly hypothetically let's say company A(specialising in tourism industry ) floated shares and 100% of shares are bought by some American hedge fund company . Then one day the terrorist attack our country , in your own opinion what will the hedge fund managers do with their shares ? Will they dump it all or will they say let's be fair to Kenyans who are employed in this company and only sell 50% and let the other 50% remain so that they don't lose their jobs ..in your own case what would the hedge fund managers do ?
Wakanyugi
#38 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 9:17:27 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,634
enyands wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:
enyands wrote:
[quo t e=Wakanyugi]
mv_ufanisi wrote:
Not all FDI is created equal. You want to attract the type that builds actual businesses, factories etc. The type that only comes to the NSE to make a quick buck and jumps ship at the earliest sign of trouble can bring down a government. Reference the Asian financial crisis. This will lead to Kenyans rioting in the streets one day and could even bring down the government. How? The steps to ruin:

1. Lots of foreign capital comes to the NSE chasing the opportunity to participate in "emerging market growth"
2. Increased Supply, leads to Increased Prices. NSE becomes hot, hotter and hottest. Even the average Kenyan starts talking about stocks.
3. For one unexpected reason or the other, one day foreigners decide to bail from the NSE
4. They sell off quickly before guy on the streets knows whats going on
5. Now they are sitting on a pile of Kshs that they need to exchange to USD ASAP so suddenly shillings becomes super weak
6. Central Bank tries to save the shilling by selling dollars but finds that it runs out of foreign currency as foreigners are selling KES like there's no tomorrow
7. NSE takes a massive nose dive - the guy on the streets who was earlier invested loses a bunch of cash
8. KES loses value so much, price of basic commodities hits the roof
9. People can no longer afford bread etc
10. Riots break out
11. IMF and World Bank step into the picture
12. Austerity yada yada
13. More riots break out
...

No capital exchange controls and full foreign participation in local companies is a powder keg. The speculators come dressed in "FDI" clothing but they are nothing but gamblers.


Good points.

However we have had very few capital controls for many years. This is a major avenue for speculative money, the kind of bad FDI you refer to.

On the other hand lifting ownership ratios on Kenyan companies potentially allows the Hellios, KLM's and Vodacoms of this world to bring in more capital, technology and talent to make KQ, Equity and Safaricom grow. This is good for us.

Limiting such investment, as we have been doing, adds absolutely no value, except pride and in fact does not protect us from bad FDI.


Rotich wrote:

I want to highlight something on a different ground but can be related to this . Reading the paper Jana there was a protest written by bamburi and east African Portland about the Chinese firm responsible for building SGR were importing their own cement instead of getting it from local manufacturer . I'm trying to see a situation where if these Chinese were told that there can do whatever they want to get cement from wherever they want then definitely they will import from China to increase the profit margins at a cost of local companies that in turn hire kenyans .so if you read point number 3 from mv_ufanisi you will understand how an ordinary Kenyan will directly he affected . Foreign investment is good but a a reasonable percentage should be left for kenyans



You are mixing oranges with bananas. The Chinese company is clearly in breach of local content rules, but that is a different matter altogether.

But, to keep to FDI, if the Chinese owned Bamburi (or most of it) do you think they would import cement from China?

To use an example further afield: almost all major Canadian companies are owned by Americans. This has not stopped their economy from doing very well - recently better than the US. In fact, by tying themselves closely to American interests, they have guaranteed access to the American market, talent, capital etc.




I agree 100% with all your points except the last bit . You gave a good example of most investors in Canada are US Citizens . I agree . There is a huge difference between an investor who invests in North America and an investor who invests in African markets,In this case kenyas markets are prone to insecurities , political instability amongst others parameters . So when we talk about foreign investors investing in Kenya it's a gamble for them . But in Canada it's a surety . Anyway them bringing money and technology is a good idea and best for our economy . My fear is when they chose to migrate "en mass " to look for other greener pastures .
Lastly hypothetically let's say company A(specialising in tourism industry ) floated shares and 100% of shares are bought by some American hedge fund company . Then one day the terrorist attack our country , in your own opinion what will the hedge fund managers do with their shares ? Will they dump it all or will they say let's be fair to Kenyans who are employed in this company and only sell 50% and let the other 50% remain so that they don't lose their jobs ..in your own case what would the hedge fund managers do ?


Perhaps it would help if I said that my definition of 'good FDI' is what economists call 'sticky investment.'

A factory can not be moved at short notice. Shares bought on the stock market can be sold and are in fact a favoured conduit for speculators. We don't want that. I am sure Rotich does not either.

Of course by lowering capital controls you expose our economy to both good and bad FDI. But hot money can be controlled also, at short notice in fact, by reintroducing controls and ignoring the screams of so called investors. Mahathir Mohamed did it for Malaysia, Argentina has done it many times, without any long term harm coming to their economies.




"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
enyands
#39 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 10:08:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
Wakanyugi wrote:
enyands wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:
enyands wrote:
[quo t e=Wakanyugi]
mv_ufanisi wrote:
Not all FDI is created equal. You want to attract the type that builds actual businesses, factories etc. The type that only comes to the NSE to make a quick buck and jumps ship at the earliest sign of trouble can bring down a government. Reference the Asian financial crisis. This will lead to Kenyans rioting in the streets one day and could even bring down the government. How? The steps to ruin:

1. Lots of foreign capital comes to the NSE chasing the opportunity to participate in "emerging market growth"
2. Increased Supply, leads to Increased Prices. NSE becomes hot, hotter and hottest. Even the average Kenyan starts talking about stocks.
3. For one unexpected reason or the other, one day foreigners decide to bail from the NSE
4. They sell off quickly before guy on the streets knows whats going on
5. Now they are sitting on a pile of Kshs that they need to exchange to USD ASAP so suddenly shillings becomes super weak
6. Central Bank tries to save the shilling by selling dollars but finds that it runs out of foreign currency as foreigners are selling KES like there's no tomorrow
7. NSE takes a massive nose dive - the guy on the streets who was earlier invested loses a bunch of cash
8. KES loses value so much, price of basic commodities hits the roof
9. People can no longer afford bread etc
10. Riots break out
11. IMF and World Bank step into the picture
12. Austerity yada yada
13. More riots break out
...

No capital exchange controls and full foreign participation in local companies is a powder keg. The speculators come dressed in "FDI" clothing but they are nothing but gamblers.


Good points.

However we have had very few capital controls for many years. This is a major avenue for speculative money, the kind of bad FDI you refer to.

On the other hand lifting ownership ratios on Kenyan companies potentially allows the Hellios, KLM's and Vodacoms of this world to bring in more capital, technology and talent to make KQ, Equity and Safaricom grow. This is good for us.

Limiting such investment, as we have been doing, adds absolutely no value, except pride and in fact does not protect us from bad FDI.


Rotich wrote:

I want to highlight something on a different ground but can be related to this . Reading the paper Jana there was a protest written by bamburi and east African Portland about the Chinese firm responsible for building SGR were importing their own cement instead of getting it from local manufacturer . I'm trying to see a situation where if these Chinese were told that there can do whatever they want to get cement from wherever they want then definitely they will import from China to increase the profit margins at a cost of local companies that in turn hire kenyans .so if you read point number 3 from mv_ufanisi you will understand how an ordinary Kenyan will directly he affected . Foreign investment is good but a a reasonable percentage should be left for kenyans



You are mixing oranges with bananas. The Chinese company is clearly in breach of local content rules, but that is a different matter altogether.

But, to keep to FDI, if the Chinese owned Bamburi (or most of it) do you think they would import cement from China?

To use an example further afield: almost all major Canadian companies are owned by Americans. This has not stopped their economy from doing very well - recently better than the US. In fact, by tying themselves closely to American interests, they have guaranteed access to the American market, talent, capital etc.




I agree 100% with all your points except the last bit . You gave a good example of most investors in Canada are US Citizens . I agree . There is a huge difference between an investor who invests in North America and an investor who invests in African markets,In this case kenyas markets are prone to insecurities , political instability amongst others parameters . So when we talk about foreign investors investing in Kenya it's a gamble for them . But in Canada it's a surety . Anyway them bringing money and technology is a good idea and best for our economy . My fear is when they chose to migrate "en mass " to look for other greener pastures .
Lastly hypothetically let's say company A(specialising in tourism industry ) floated shares and 100% of shares are bought by some American hedge fund company . Then one day the terrorist attack our country , in your own opinion what will the hedge fund managers do with their shares ? Will they dump it all or will they say let's be fair to Kenyans who are employed in this company and only sell 50% and let the other 50% remain so that they don't lose their jobs ..in your own case what would the hedge fund managers do ?


Perhaps it would help if I said that my definition of 'good FDI' is what economists call 'sticky investment.'

A factory can not be moved at short notice. Shares bought on the stock market can be sold and are in fact a favoured conduit for speculators. We don't want that. I am sure Rotich does not either.

Of course by lowering capital controls you expose our economy to both good and bad FDI. But hot money can be controlled also, at short notice in fact, by reintroducing controls and ignoring the screams of so called investors. Mahathir Mohamed did it for Malaysia, Argentina has done it many times, without any long term harm coming to their economies.







remember what happened in Nigeria recently . the foreign investor were damping their stocks like never before and brought all their money to Kenya and South Africa. people were losing jobs like crazy and there was an honest appeal to foreign investors not to flee

http://www.vanguardngr.c...nigeria-stock-exchange/

"Commenting on this development, some shareholders who spoke to Investors Forum described the foreign investors as casino players, who want to make money at the detriment of the economy, others attribute their action to fears of the outcome of the forthcoming election. Excerpts:

Alhaji Gbadebo Olatokunbo, shareholder activist: I will describe the foreign investors as casino players. I have been a stock market player for more than five years. They are not here for the interest of the market. They are here just to make money and if in the process of making money they harm our economy that is none of their business because we allowed it.
- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.c...e/#sthash.z5zIKOlg.dpuf
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