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USD/KES $ at 95
Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:lochaz-index wrote:http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Shilling-weakens-on-energy-sector-dollar-demand/-/539552/2760972/-/5kiiti/-/index.html
Looks like the 100 mark is inevitable. It might coincide with kq announcing a record loss for a listed nse stock. Cbk will continue selling dollars to contain the slide!!! how effective have their sales been so far? we are now a shilling and change away from 100
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Angelica _ann wrote:lochaz-index wrote:http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Shilling-weakens-on-energy-sector-dollar-demand/-/539552/2760972/-/5kiiti/-/index.html
Looks like the 100 mark is inevitable. It might coincide with kq announcing a record loss for a listed nse stock. Cbk will continue selling dollars to contain the slide!!! Strong KES backed by CB selling USD instead of a healthy econ? Upside down economics!? KE should study Ghana lest it lands in that boat.
What happens when Greece defaults on IMF on June 30th?$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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You can take this to ze bank, Grexit ain't going to happen on 30th June. The Greeks no its better inside the EU than out there facing proper market pain. Who will provide their banks liquidity or even cushion money when they get thrown out of the debt markets which Grexit will lead to? Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,905
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Mainat wrote:You can take this to ze bank, Grexit ain't going to happen on 30th June. The Greeks no its better inside the EU than out there facing proper market pain.
Who will provide their banks liquidity or even cushion money when they get thrown out of the debt markets which Grexit will lead to? If a man had the guts to play your forecast, really make a decisive move, he would be in the money. But alas, where art thou brave knight?
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/26/2012 Posts: 136
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1.00 USD = 98.7246 KES
The Greeks are sorting themselves out , the Americans are at record employment. Their economies will grow further and so will Europe as the cost of logistics and energy reduce.
In Kenya we have the opposite , the balance of payments in in a huge defeceit as we are a BIG importer and low value exporter . The government just taxed us more on fuel the dollar is going to touch 100/- no doubt there.
We are in a system where the government needs to borrow every year more and more , they are strangling liquidity people cannot pay debts. Expenses are on the rise, their is money flight from the markets
bad news all round
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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mazingira wrote:1.00 USD = 98.7246 KES
The Greeks are sorting themselves out , the Americans are at record employment. Their economies will grow further and so will Europe as the cost of logistics and energy reduce.
In Kenya we have the opposite , the balance of payments in in a huge defeceit as we are a BIG importer and low value exporter . The government just taxed us more on fuel the dollar is going to touch 100/- no doubt there.
We are in a system where the government needs to borrow every year more and more , they are strangling liquidity people cannot pay debts. Expenses are on the rise, their is money flight from the markets
bad news all round I just think that was a very dumb move by GoK signalling higher inflation, weaker KES, higher yields. Now MPC will have to raise the cbr by a further 300bps or so to tame the USD bulls....well at the expense of the economy/NSE. The crowding out effect is underway. #PainInThePocket @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mazingira wrote:1.00 USD = 98.7246 KES
The Greeks are sorting themselves out , the Americans are at record employment. Their economies will grow further and so will Europe as the cost of logistics and energy reduce.
In Kenya we have the opposite , the balance of payments in in a huge defeceit as we are a BIG importer and low value exporter . The government just taxed us more on fuel the dollar is going to touch 100/- no doubt there.
We are in a system where the government needs to borrow every year more and more , they are strangling liquidity people cannot pay debts. Expenses are on the rise, their is money flight from the markets
bad news all round I just think that was a very dumb move by GoK signalling higher inflation, weaker KES, higher yields. Now MPC will have to raise the cbr by a further 300bps or so to tame the USD bulls....well at the expense of the economy/NSE. The crowding out effect is underway. #PainInThePocket Cbk guys have only one trump card in the name of the IMF loan, once they have played that card(which should be soon)then the slide of the KES is going to be spectacular.The drop could occur as cost push inflation caused by the fuel levy and poor crop harvests kicks in.Mopping of liquidity and hiking of the CBR can only achieve short term results. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/26/2012 Posts: 136
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lochaz-index wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mazingira wrote:1.00 USD = 98.7246 KES
The Greeks are sorting themselves out , the Americans are at record employment. Their economies will grow further and so will Europe as the cost of logistics and energy reduce.
In Kenya we have the opposite , the balance of payments in in a huge defeceit as we are a BIG importer and low value exporter . The government just taxed us more on fuel the dollar is going to touch 100/- no doubt there.
We are in a system where the government needs to borrow every year more and more , they are strangling liquidity people cannot pay debts. Expenses are on the rise, their is money flight from the markets
bad news all round I just think that was a very dumb move by GoK signalling higher inflation, weaker KES, higher yields. Now MPC will have to raise the cbr by a further 300bps or so to tame the USD bulls....well at the expense of the economy/NSE. The crowding out effect is underway. #PainInThePocket Cbk guys have only one trump card in the name of the IMF loan, once they have played that card(which should be soon)then the slide of the KES is going to be spectacular.The drop could occur as cost push inflation caused by the fuel levy and poor crop harvests kicks in.Mopping of liquidity and hiking of the CBR can only achieve short term results. Question when the IMF lends Kenya this cash , im sure there is interest and we have to repay , don't we ? Doesn't this in turn mean even more money leaving Kenya? How heavily is the GOK locally , the monetary policy of mopping up cash is going to hurt businesses only people with overly large fixed deposits of 250mn plus love it when interest rates are hiked as they cash in like one arm bandit paying out a jackpot. Even this is unsustainable because Kenyans cant afford to borrow at excessively high rate , defaulting increases banks under pressure tighten their belts. Economic growth potential shrinks , government comes under pressure to raise money for running country . Vicious circle. what i agree with i seea very weak KES in the near future and dire times for businesses
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,678 Location: NAIROBI
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The problem is low exports low exports and low exports which we need to boost to get additional forex. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Ericsson wrote:The problem is low exports low exports and low exports which we need to boost to get additional forex. And heavy imports...to the extend of importing toothpicks. We are buying the dollar so that we can go buy toothpicks from China. Unless that is resolved,....we will see 110/- soon and very soon. No one is stopping the dollar from strengthening not unless there's another major calamity. We either start pumping out that oil or reduce what we're importing. These other simple cosmetics will not work, infact CBK should let it be "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/26/2012 Posts: 136
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Tourism earned Kenya serious $'s in the past but even this is being treated badly with the implementation of VAT on tour activities all Kenyan tour activities previously VAT exempt as they were treated as an export earning $'s have been 16% more expensive since 2013 September. 2013 September to date look at the drop in tourist numbers , yes we had security concerns but , how much more expensive is Kenya than , Bangkok , Goa , Marrakesh , Bali and Tanzania for the product we are offering
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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mazingira wrote:Tourism earned Kenya serious $'s in the past but even this is being treated badly with the implementation of VAT on tour activities all Kenyan tour activities previously VAT exempt as they were treated as an export earning $'s have been 16% more expensive since 2013 September. 2013 September to date look at the drop in tourist numbers , yes we had security concerns but , how much more expensive is Kenya than , Bangkok , Goa , Marrakesh , Bali and Tanzania for the product we are offering way up huko...we are expensive there is a Mumbai 6 day tour inclusive of return ticket @ 900 USD and the hotel is a 4 star hotel. possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mazingira wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mazingira wrote:1.00 USD = 98.7246 KES
The Greeks are sorting themselves out , the Americans are at record employment. Their economies will grow further and so will Europe as the cost of logistics and energy reduce.
In Kenya we have the opposite , the balance of payments in in a huge defeceit as we are a BIG importer and low value exporter . The government just taxed us more on fuel the dollar is going to touch 100/- no doubt there.
We are in a system where the government needs to borrow every year more and more , they are strangling liquidity people cannot pay debts. Expenses are on the rise, their is money flight from the markets
bad news all round I just think that was a very dumb move by GoK signalling higher inflation, weaker KES, higher yields. Now MPC will have to raise the cbr by a further 300bps or so to tame the USD bulls....well at the expense of the economy/NSE. The crowding out effect is underway. #PainInThePocket Cbk guys have only one trump card in the name of the IMF loan, once they have played that card(which should be soon)then the slide of the KES is going to be spectacular.The drop could occur as cost push inflation caused by the fuel levy and poor crop harvests kicks in.Mopping of liquidity and hiking of the CBR can only achieve short term results. Question when the IMF lends Kenya this cash , im sure there is interest and we have to repay , don't we ? Doesn't this in turn mean even more money leaving Kenya? How heavily is the GOK locally , the monetary policy of mopping up cash is going to hurt businesses only people with overly large fixed deposits of 250mn plus love it when interest rates are hiked as they cash in like one arm bandit paying out a jackpot. Even this is unsustainable because Kenyans cant afford to borrow at excessively high rate , defaulting increases banks under pressure tighten their belts. Economic growth potential shrinks , government comes under pressure to raise money for running country . Vicious circle. what i agree with i seea very weak KES in the near future and dire times for businesses The loan money is already in our coffers and it was undertaken for the very specific purpose of shoring the KES. As it stands, it's a question of when it will be used rather than if it will be used. All in all it makes a bad situation worse once the repayments become due. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,097 Location: Nairobi
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It's better for Kenya to have a LOWER interest rate than a 'stronger' KES. A higher interest rate will hurt more people [the Kenyan firms and individuals who have taken loans in KES] than a weaker KES. Some items e.g. fuel are necessary but the pass-through inflation is manageable. As is, trying to 'protect' the KES is a loser's game for CBK. A weaker KES will (hopefully) curb imports of toothpicks, coconut milk, twinings tea, biscuits, canned maize, etc while giving a boost to local manufacturers & exporters. Furthermore, many firms/buyers will start looking at local alternatives for many products. The USD borrowed from the IMF or Banks will have to be repaid in USD. So propping up the KES today just benefits those who buy USD today using KES & then wait until the crap hits the fan when CBK/GoK starts buying USD to repay the loans. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/1/2010 Posts: 3,024 Location: Hapa
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maka wrote:mazingira wrote:Tourism earned Kenya serious $'s in the past but even this is being treated badly with the implementation of VAT on tour activities all Kenyan tour activities previously VAT exempt as they were treated as an export earning $'s have been 16% more expensive since 2013 September. 2013 September to date look at the drop in tourist numbers , yes we had security concerns but , how much more expensive is Kenya than , Bangkok , Goa , Marrakesh , Bali and Tanzania for the product we are offering way up huko...we are expensive there is a Mumbai 6 day tour inclusive of return ticket @ 900 USD and the hotel is a 4 star hotel. . Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee. - Muhammad Ali🐝
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/26/2012 Posts: 136
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butterflyke wrote:maka wrote:mazingira wrote:Tourism earned Kenya serious $'s in the past but even this is being treated badly with the implementation of VAT on tour activities all Kenyan tour activities previously VAT exempt as they were treated as an export earning $'s have been 16% more expensive since 2013 September. 2013 September to date look at the drop in tourist numbers , yes we had security concerns but , how much more expensive is Kenya than , Bangkok , Goa , Marrakesh , Bali and Tanzania for the product we are offering way up huko...we are expensive there is a Mumbai 6 day tour inclusive of return ticket @ 900 USD and the hotel is a 4 star hotel. . Have u happened to see the spreads that Indian or middle eastern even north african and south african hotels offer for a buffet . WOW , plus entertainment , plus shopping , plus sight seeing , plus restaurants for a while to get there but we need to look at our prices Kenya is too expensive , look at Jamaica its dead thanks to being expensive
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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Greece Misses $1.7 Billion IMF Payment, Joining Zimbabwe's Ranks http://www.bloomberg.com...joining-zimbabwe-s-ranksTime is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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Gatheuzi wrote:Watch out for highly geared companies. If debt is a high percentage of equity expect rate hikes to possibly erode vitually all profits.
Uchumi falls in this category. ARM needs to move fast to deal with the short term borrowings. Trancentary already planning a rights issue to deal with debts. Home Afrika may post a bigger loss as they keep digging themselves in funny arrangements. KQ - its obvious where they are headed. Mumias - already deep in debt and cant pay. Rate hike of 300bps confirms my earlier worries. I expect 75% of firms above to give profit warnings this year. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Its a significant problem that interest rates are now the weapon of choice for dealing with current account imbalances. Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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Gatheuzi wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:Watch out for highly geared companies. If debt is a high percentage of equity expect rate hikes to possibly erode vitually all profits.
Uchumi falls in this category. ARM needs to move fast to deal with the short term borrowings. Trancentary already planning a rights issue to deal with debts. Home Afrika may post a bigger loss as they keep digging themselves in funny arrangements. KQ - its obvious where they are headed. Mumias - already deep in debt and cant pay. Rate hike of 300bps confirms my earlier worries. I expect 75% of firms above to give profit warnings this year. Things are getting thick... possunt quia posse videntur
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