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How to tell NSE has topped/Maxed out.
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Mukiri
#121 Posted : Friday, April 24, 2015 9:47:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
S.Mutaga III wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 2015 snapshot. The index is in negative territory for 2015.


This may be a bad year to hunt for capital gains, the best one can do is break even if lucky. However, most returns for 2015 will be from dividends, not capital gains, if this trend continues.

And just when you'd decided to join the market, after opting outLiar

Proverbs 19:21
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S.Mutaga III
#122 Posted : Saturday, April 25, 2015 2:46:48 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Mukiri wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 2015 snapshot. The index is in negative territory for 2015.


This may be a bad year to hunt for capital gains, the best one can do is break even if lucky. However, most returns for 2015 will be from dividends, not capital gains, if this trend continues.

And just when you'd decided to join the market, after opting outLiar

I am still going to invest, with a longer investment horizon. I believe that the counters I chose were bargains at that time. KPLC and Kenya Re have declined marginally but Unga is already up 15% since I bought it. So my portfolio is still in the green. I will only focus on these three counters and buy more as prices decline...my target is to buy a second tranche of Kenya Re and KPLC at KSh 15
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, April 25, 2015 2:48 PM | Reason: Not specified
lochaz-index
#123 Posted : Wednesday, April 29, 2015 8:09:29 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
The market is clinging on to that 5000 mark as if it's life depends on it and its almost funny. Meanwhile the govt has already forked out 51b to ease the shilling's slide.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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obiero
#124 Posted : Wednesday, April 29, 2015 9:12:36 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,226
Location: nairobi
lochaz-index wrote:
The market is clinging on to that 5000 mark as if it's life depends on it and its almost funny. Meanwhile the govt has already forked out 51b to ease the shilling's slide.

the Alshabaab have done us in.. The market slide is directly linked to Garissa.. Manufacturers are feeling the brunt of USD gain on the KES.. We are done upto the time Cousin Obama comes into town
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Aardwolf
#125 Posted : Wednesday, April 29, 2015 10:02:32 PM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 4/20/2015
Posts: 8
obiero wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
The market is clinging on to that 5000 mark as if it's life depends on it and its almost funny. Meanwhile the govt has already forked out 51b to ease the shilling's slide.

the Alshabaab have done us in.. The market slide is directly linked to Garissa.. Manufacturers are feeling the brunt of USD gain on the KES.. We are done upto the time Cousin Obama comes into town


To be honest, I don't think this is entirely a sad thing in a market where there are barely any bargains. I am holding out my war chest till the bear pays a visit. And when that time comes, I'll be ready. As the towering mammal rummages though the NSE whilst ripping though stocks with its golden claws, i'll be in tow picking up the scraps. The psychological toll on investors in the wake of the bear run will call for abdominal fortitude which (if the sociological gospel according to @Mnadii is anything to go by) will be lacking among most investors. In my opinion there have been a couple of false dawns. Hopefully, this time round the sun will actually rise. smile
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TheGeek
#126 Posted : Saturday, May 30, 2015 4:45:39 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/3/2014
Posts: 245
I note the daily rise of "Where do I invest ?" more interestingly is the replies are lacking "hot stock tips" This would've been unheard of in 2013-2014.
In the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
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hisah
#127 Posted : Monday, June 01, 2015 5:54:49 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
TheGeek wrote:
I note the daily rise of "Where do I invest ?" more interestingly is the replies are lacking "hot stock tips" This would've been unheard of in 2013-2014.

It's just getting started. When the bear will be in full chaos mode there will be no posts here as those 'rosy' analyst reports vanish.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#128 Posted : Thursday, July 09, 2015 9:28:55 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
Gatheuzi wrote:
hisah wrote:
TheGeek wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
@ Geek..very interesting picks.I like the volume spike on Scan Group.

Please have the RSI column of Scan group in the chart!!



Done.

I've placed by bet on scan.

Welcome aboard!

I had loaded up in Feb then in March the EXP merger deal collapsed. That was a nasty surprise to my expectations as it was a major part of the investment equation. I've been selling since Mar 12. The illiquid conditions in this counter make selling or buying such a pain.


There's blood on the streets. No one is saying it, but there's alot of blood letting going on... Like you had said, shares are taking a beating, Lets hope its a correction not the bear coming in

Until that 4yr rising wedge is broken down, this is just a correction. A bear will be obvious since mpesa bank will also be heavily bent down during that phase.

USDKES > 100 is the line in the sand.

Since this post on Apr 12 the following has happened:

1. The 4yr rising wedge has broken down as 5000 handle broke down and tested 4700 support zone.

2. USD/KES > 100

New developments
3. Crazy expansionary budget proposed by treasury.

4. CGT madness which treasury gave up the fight but proposed a punitive taxation levy on equity sales.

5. CBK has hiked CBR by a shocking 300bps in 4 weeks! Will defend KES at whatever cost ignoring the econ slump. Recession be damned!

Globally
- USD rate hike looms - this will really hurt
- Greece crisis

@aguy fat tails are on the way. Just be patient.

What I expect at NSE20 is just a series of lower lows. 4400 will not be able to support a guns blazing CBK shorting the market with this crazy rate hikes. Bulls need liquidity which CBK is aggressively grab from them. 4000 will likely be tested as the pressure piles up as H1 results come out soon.

Conclusion: Very tough business staying bullish at NSE vs bad econ macros and a shorting CBK. Then add the global macros of Grexit and USD strength and you realize one needs more than luck to stay afloat.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#129 Posted : Thursday, July 09, 2015 9:34:43 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Is that britam below 20 handle? Geez! Closed @18.75. Sit tight! Meanwhile NSE20 slumped 1.1% yesterday closing at 4762 in response to that CBK shock hike after rebounding to 4900 from 4745. Irrational selling period coming up!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Othelo
#130 Posted : Thursday, July 09, 2015 7:11:02 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
Many Wanjikus will get ulcers central by end of 2015 since the market is dipping slowly slowly, slow punctures. They will realise the slide later than late!!!
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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