@jammo - ALL the stuff you say (the bad stuff) has been factored in.
The good stuff: 1) KQ expects a better 2H 2) Stronger US$ helps since 90% revenue in US$. 3) Lower oil prices (except for hedged fuel costs but these are sunk costs) for the unhedged portion 4) Better/newer,efficient planes 4) Passenger recovery (no PEV this year,yet).
Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett