Wazua
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Kenya Economy Watch
Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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Mainat wrote:-Land near urban areas
-housing
-commercial agriculture
-NSE, but you need to be selective since parastatals will only ever get good if GoK is not corrupt or tribal-based
Thanks for the heads up Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Business Daily wrote:After a 26-year break, the Republic of Ireland reopened its mission in Kenya late last year. The Business Daily’s George Ngigi spoke to the ambassador Vincent O’Neill on the vision behind Dublin’s renewed interest in Nairobi. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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KENYA'S FINANCE MINISTER TELLS REUTERS DRAFT LAW FOR PLANNED NAIROBI FINANCIAL CENTRE TO BE READY IN 3 MONTHS"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The 2014 KE econ report card by kNBS reveals how tough the macroecon environment was. Thus the several profit warnings. With 2015 macros looking poised to worsen as being signalled by the KES weakness, it's advisable for equity investor to start building defensive portfolios before the storm lands. The upcoming expansionary national budget will likely weaken KES further and spike inflation. Will CBR be hiked? The worst scenario would be a CBR hike and a FED hike. If those 2 combine the market will become very defensive (strong bear). http://mobile.nation.co....-/154r1q1z/-/index.html
http://www.businessdaily...6/-/3db7pm/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Paradox...Is the shilling weakening? How is the shilling doing when measured against the Yen, Euro, RMB? The dollar is strengthening ... against all currencies. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:The 2014 KE econ report card by kNBS reveals how tough the macroecon environment was. Thus the several profit warnings. With 2015 macros looking poised to worsen as being signalled by the KES weakness, it's advisable for equity investor to start building defensive portfolios before the storm lands. The upcoming expansionary national budget will likely weaken KES further and spike inflation. Will CBR be hiked? The worst scenario would be a CBR hike and a FED hike. If those 2 combine the market will become very defensive (strong bear). http://mobile.nation.co....-/154r1q1z/-/index.html
http://www.businessdaily...6/-/3db7pm/-/index.html
Where to 'hide' the money?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:Paradox...Is the shilling weakening? How is the shilling doing when measured against the Yen, Euro, RMB? The dollar is strengthening ... against all currencies. The global trade currency is the $. Current account deficit is very sensitive to KES weakness vs $. Dollar reserves are finite unless you can print the $ which CBK can't. This is why I state if $KES rate becomes volatile CBK will be forced to hike CBR. That will make liquidity tight and spike interest rates both deposits and loans and pull the handbrake on the econ. For an econ already on a slump as per those KNBS statistics, a CBR hike will be a nasty curveball.
The proposed budget is expansionary, but KES weakness might just pour cold water to that stimulus. A tricky delicate balance for treasury.
@mukiri - 8% dividend yield or better if you plan to stay put in risky assets as well as NAV discounts (fat tails)as equities price dips. Equities trading close to NAV ride out the storm best. Fixed income (tbills, fixed deposits etc) too offers nice returns of 10% and above when risky assets get clobbered. If not sure what to do just keep your cash. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,301 Location: kenya
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hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Paradox...Is the shilling weakening? How is the shilling doing when measured against the Yen, Euro, RMB? The dollar is strengthening ... against all currencies. The global trade currency is the $. Current account deficit is very sensitive to KES weakness vs $. Dollar reserves are finite unless you can print the $ which CBK can't. This is why I state if $KES rate becomes volatile CBK will be forced to hike CBR. That will make liquidity tight and spike interest rates both deposits and loans and pull the handbrake on the econ. For an econ already on a slump as per those KNBS statistics, a CBR hike will be a nasty curveball.
The proposed budget is expansionary, but KES weakness might just pour cold water to that stimulus. A tricky delicate balance for treasury.
@mukiri - 8% dividend yield or better if you plan to stay put in risky assets as well as NAV discounts (fat tails)as equities price dips. Equities trading close to NAV ride out the storm best. Fixed income (tbills, fixed deposits etc) too offers nice returns of 10% and above when risky assets get clobbered. If not sure what to do just keep your cash. Too technical to understand for wanjiku like me but I get the last part ."keep your cash and be cautious because it's going to tight on economy ." Thanks hisa
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Paradox...Is the shilling weakening? How is the shilling doing when measured against the Yen, Euro, RMB? The dollar is strengthening ... against all currencies. The global trade currency is the $. Current account deficit is very sensitive to KES weakness vs $. Dollar reserves are finite unless you can print the $ which CBK can't. This is why I state if $KES rate becomes volatile CBK will be forced to hike CBR. That will make liquidity tight and spike interest rates both deposits and loans and pull the handbrake on the econ. For an econ already on a slump as per those KNBS statistics, a CBR hike will be a nasty curveball.
The proposed budget is expansionary, but KES weakness might just pour cold water to that stimulus. A tricky delicate balance for treasury.
@mukiri - 8% dividend yield or better if you plan to stay put in risky assets as well as NAV discounts (fat tails)as equities price dips. Equities trading close to NAV ride out the storm best. Fixed income (tbills, fixed deposits etc) too offers nice returns of 10% and above when risky assets get clobbered. If not sure what to do just keep your cash. Given that the USD is the global medium of exchange and its bound continue strengthening in the foreseeable future, don't you think the status quo (weak Ksh vs USD) remains up until we reduce our imports and boost our exports...bring in more tourists...or pump out that crude and start selling it...am seeing 100 hitting before Dec 2015. CBR hike will be nasty indeed. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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$KES breaks above 95 handle.If KES crashes past 100 to the USD, bulls will start feeling the bear strength as finally the bargains period makes a comeback. Been a while since those fat tail discounts last popped up - value investors heaven. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,773 Location: NAIROBI
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Kenya's debt to China rises by Sh108.96 billion in seven months http://www.the-star.co.k...96-billion-seven-months … Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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hisah wrote:$KES breaks above 95 handle.If KES crashes past 100 to the USD, bulls will start feeling the bear strength as finally the bargains period makes a comeback. Been a while since those fat tail discounts last popped up - value investors heaven. This is really hurting the import business where you pay everything including the shipping cost in dollars.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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whiteowl wrote:hisah wrote:$KES breaks above 95 handle.If KES crashes past 100 to the USD, bulls will start feeling the bear strength as finally the bargains period makes a comeback. Been a while since those fat tail discounts last popped up - value investors heaven. This is really hurting the import business where you pay everything including the shipping cost in dollars. That's good we import too much stuff even toothpicks and export very little. The weakening shilling is good for the exporters like me
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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mkonomtupu wrote:whiteowl wrote:hisah wrote:$KES breaks above 95 handle.If KES crashes past 100 to the USD, bulls will start feeling the bear strength as finally the bargains period makes a comeback. Been a while since those fat tail discounts last popped up - value investors heaven. This is really hurting the import business where you pay everything including the shipping cost in dollars. That's good we import too much stuff even toothpicks and export very little. The weakening shilling is good for the exporters like me The goods I import aren't available locally. Even if they were I doubt they'd be cheaper than buying them abroad. The trade deficit is caused by a number of systemic failures like few govt incentives and high cost of production. As a business man I only look at profit and loss so until it makes business sense to buy locally I'll keep importing.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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whiteowl wrote:mkonomtupu wrote:whiteowl wrote:hisah wrote:$KES breaks above 95 handle.If KES crashes past 100 to the USD, bulls will start feeling the bear strength as finally the bargains period makes a comeback. Been a while since those fat tail discounts last popped up - value investors heaven. This is really hurting the import business where you pay everything including the shipping cost in dollars. That's good we import too much stuff even toothpicks and export very little. The weakening shilling is good for the exporters like me The goods I import aren't available locally. Even if they were I doubt they'd be cheaper than buying them abroad. The trade deficit is caused by a number of systemic failures like few govt incentives and high cost of production. As a business man I only look at profit and loss so until it makes business sense to buy locally I'll keep importing. The $$ should keep strengthening so that it becomes cheaper to get whatever locally. That outfit called BRAND KENYA is truly useless "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,191 Location: nairobi
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Capital gains tax has its contribution towards the shilling poor showing however small it may be. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,773 Location: NAIROBI
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Monetary Policy committe retains CBR at 8.5% https://www.centralbank....lease_-_6th_May_2015.pdfWealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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murchr wrote:Business Daily wrote:After a 26-year break, the Republic of Ireland reopened its mission in Kenya late last year. The Business Daily’s George Ngigi spoke to the ambassador Vincent O’Neill on the vision behind Dublin’s renewed interest in Nairobi. Interesting. The laggard play might just work. We await the American delegation now. Vishindo... KV2030 NIFC, TUNASIJA!! Kenya to establish financial hub to spur growthhttp://www.kbc.co.ke/rut...ial-hubs-to-spur-growth/
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Kenya’s economic growth is next year set to hit seven per cent for the first time since 2007 on the back of increased foreign direct investment and improved balance of trade. International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a new report focusing on sub-Saharan Africa that the local economy will also benefit from a narrower current account deficit —the difference between imports and exports. The growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 7.2 per cent, an improvement from the estimate for this year, which the Bretton Woods institution has forecast at 6.9 per cent. In 2007, GDP growth was 7.0 per cent but rebounded after the post-election violence. This year’s economic growth is anchored in, among other things, the investments in infrastructure, especially the standard gauge railway (SGR) where over Sh400 billion is to be spent in the next few years, the IMF said. http://www.businessdaily...6/-/fp70h3z/-/index.html"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:Kenya’s economic growth is next year set to hit seven per cent for the first time since 2007 on the back of increased foreign direct investment and improved balance of trade. International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a new report focusing on sub-Saharan Africa that the local economy will also benefit from a narrower current account deficit —the difference between imports and exports. The growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 7.2 per cent, an improvement from the estimate for this year, which the Bretton Woods institution has forecast at 6.9 per cent. In 2007, GDP growth was 7.0 per cent but rebounded after the post-election violence. This year’s economic growth is anchored in, among other things, the investments in infrastructure, especially the standard gauge railway (SGR) where over Sh400 billion is to be spent in the next few years, the IMF said. http://www.businessdaily.../-/fp70h3z/-/index.html IMF and govt econ reports are always off by a large margin. KE econ started stalling in Q4 2014 as per FY results of several firms. Q1 2015 results for the financial sector are also showing the econ contraction conditions are still present in 2015. How does an econ contracting two consecutive quarters suddenly sprint like a 100m dash?!? Those profit warnings will hurt in 2015 as conditions worsen. NSE is negative for the year coz the market can see what is coming. Profits will be a rare commodity. Financials will definitely sell assets to pad profits this year.
For now and into 2016 those lofty GDP flowers by gok and IMF are just that, flowery dreams. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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